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Ashleigh Barty vs Petra Kvitova Odds & Prediction – WTA Madrid Open Quarterfinals

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

May 4, 2021 · 6:38 AM PDT

Barty vs Kvitova
Petra Kvitova of the Czech Republic returns the ball to Angelique Kerber of Germany during their match at the Madrid Open tennis tournament in Madrid, Spain, Saturday, May 1, 2021. (AP Photo/Paul White)
  • Ashleigh Barty and Petra Kvitova will meet for the 10th time in the Mutua Madrid Open quarterfinals
  • They’ll play Wednesday – for the first time on clay since Barty had just turned 16, at the 2012 French Open
  • Barty is now the solid favorite to win the tournament. Can Kvitova find a way? We break it down below.

Time was that an Ashleigh Barty vs Petra Kvitova match was an almost weekly occurrence.

Then the pandemic hit, and the two haven’t played each other since early 2020.

Ashleigh Barty vs Petra Kvitova Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total at DraftKings
[1] Ashleigh Barty (AUS) -3.5 (-107) -225 O 21.5 (-122)
[9] Petra Kvitova (CZE) +3.5 (-115) +180 U 21.5 (-103)

Odds as of May 3

But with Barty now installed as the favorite to win the Mutua Madrid Open at +210 (Kvitova is at +600), much has changed.

Seven of Nine Career Meetings Within 14 Months

During a period that stretched from the Sydney tournament in January 2019 through Doha in February 2020, Barty and Kvitova met seven times.

All of them were on hard courts.

Kvitova was the higher-ranked player when she won the first four, two of them in Barty’s native Australia. The turn came in Miami in 2019 when underdog Barty beat her for the first time and won the tournament.

Then Barty, soon installed as No. 1 after winning the 2019 French Open, won three more after that.

Their last meeting was in Doha in 2020.

Kvitova pulled that out. And then Barty didn’t play again in 2020.

Ashleigh Barty vs Petra Kvitova Head-to-Head

Ashleigh Barty
Petra Kvitova

25 (April 24, 1996) Age 31 (March 8, 1990)
Ipswich, Australia Birthplace Bilovec, Czech Republic
5-5 Height 6-0
11 Career WTA Singles Titles 28
No. 1 (June 24, 2019) Career High Ranking No. 2 (Oct. 31, 2011)
No. 1 Current Ranking  No. 12
$18,424,213 Career Prize Money $32,824,782
23-3 2021 Won/Loss record 14-6
4 Career Head-to-Head 5

One Meeting on Clay, Back in 2012

The only other time the two met on clay – until Wednesday– was in the first round of the 2012 French Open.

Barty, just turned 16, was there with Tennis Australia’s wild card. Her prep was a … junior tournament. Other than a few wild cards at home, the young Aussie’s professional experience had been lower-level $25,000 ITF events.

She got three games; Kvitova went on to the semifinals.

Things have changed.

Barty won the 2019 French Open, and she also won Stuttgart 10 days ago, her first clay-court tournament since that major victory. She’s on a 14-match winning streak on clay.

Ashleigh Barty vs Petra Kvitova Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2020 Doha (SF) Outdoor Hard 6-4, 2-6, 6-4 Kvitova
2020 Australian Open (QF) Outdoor Hard  7-6 (6), 6-2 Barty
2019 WTA Finals (RR) Indoor Hard 6-4, 6-2 Barty
2019 Beijing (QF) Outdoor Hard 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 Barty
2019 Miami (QF) Outdoor Hard 7-6 (6), 3-6, 6-2 Barty
2019 Australian Open (QF) Outdoor Hard 6-1, 6-4 Kvitova
2019 Sydney (F) Outdoor Hard 1-6, 7-5, 7-6 (3) Kvitova
2017 Birmingham (F) Grass 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 Kvitova
2012 French Open (R128) Clay 6-1, 6-2 Kvitova

Both Barty and Kvitova With One Tough Match

Kvitova is coming off a grueling three-set win in the third round over Veronika Kudermetova. The Russian is seven years younger and a recent winner on clay in Istanbul.

But before that, it was fairly smooth sailing.

Barty had a surprisingly difficult time with qualifier Tamara Zidansek in the second round, losing the middle set 1-6 before advancing to the much-anticipated first meeting with Iga Swiatek, who won the 2020 French Open in her absence.

Swiatek is six years younger than Barty.

Wednesday’s matchup is the reverse; the Aussie is six years younger than Kvitova.

The winner will play the winner of No. 8 seed Belinda Bencic and Spanish wild card Paula Badosa in the semifinals.

Fast Madrid Clay a Help for Kvitova

Kvitova has plenty of experience playing craftswoman with variety on clay. And she knows Barty’s game well. So there isn’t much that’s going to throw her off-balance.

Madrid is the quickest of all the clay-court events because of the altitude. And Kvitova is a three-time champion; she knows how to win there.

The match against Swiatek was likely draining mentally. Barty will need not to let down against the Czech, and serve as well as she did against Swiatek.

Kvitova will do well to win the first set (+155) because her two comeback wins over Barty came many moons ago.

Expect this one to go three sets (+143), and to go over 21.5 games (-122). It feels like a more even matchup than the odds would indicate.

Best Bet: Barty in three sets (+300)

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