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ATP 2019 Barcelona Open Finals Odds: Thiem vs Medvedev

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Tennis

Apr 27, 2019 · 4:20 PM PDT

Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev is 8-1 on clay this season. Photo by Dacoucou (Wikimedia Commons) [CC License].
  • Dominic Thiem beat Rafael Nadal for the fourth time on clay to advance to Sunday’s Barcelona Open final
  • Opponent Daniil Medvedev is 8-1 on clay courts this season
  • It will be just the 2nd Barcelona Open final since 1997 that won’t feature a Spanish player

Dominic Thiem has qualified for membership into a very exclusive club, thanks to his 6-4, 6-4 semifinal win over Rafael Nadal in the Barcelona Open. Thiem and Novak Djokovic are the only players to have beaten Nadal at least four times on a clay-court surface.

That being said, Thiem can’t expect a walk in the park during Sunday’s final. Danill Medvedev has proven to be a clay-court dynamo in 2019. That includes his 6-4, 3-6, 7-5 semifinal verdict over Kei Nishikori.

Medvedev-Thiem Barcelona Open Final Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Total
Daniil Medvedev +3.5 (-104) +234 O 22 (-108)
Dominic Thiem -3.5 (+124) -274 U 22 (-112)

*Odds taken 04/27/19

Thiem previously played in the 2017 Barcelona Open final. He lost in straight sets 6-4, 6-1 to Nadal.

Ending the Reign of Spain

For the first time since 2015, the Barcelona Open champion won’t be a Spaniard. And for just the second time since 1997, neither finalist is from Spain.

Nadal was the three-time defending champion. He’d also won the Barcelona Open from 2005-09 and 2011-13. Countrymen Carlos Moya (2003), Tommy Robredo (2004) and Fernando Verdasco (2010) were other Spanish winners at Barcelona since 2003. It was a run which saw Spanish players capture 14 of 16 Barcelona Open titles.

The only non-Spaniard to win in this span was Japan’s Nishikori (2014-15). In 2014, he beat Colombia’s Santiago Giraldo in the previous final that was absent of Spanish players.

Dominating Thiem

Saturday’s semifinal match was the 12th head-to-head meeting between Thiem and Nadal. Nadal still owns an 8-4 edge. That includes a 7-4 advantage on a clay-court surface. But Thiem is starting to get the better of the master.

The Austrian has now beaten Nadal on clay in each of the past four seasons. Thiem won in 2018 at Madrid, in 2017 at Rome and in 2016 at Buenos Aires. Most importantly, in 2017 and 2018, Thiem was the only player to win a match from Nadal on a clay surface.

Thiem was viewed for years as the next in line after Nadal to be the world’s best clay performer.

He’s been called “The Prince Of Clay” and “The Natural Heir”. Thiem is known as “Muster 2.0”. That’s a reference to former Austrian star Thomas Muster, another dominant clay player.

Nadal is 421-38 for a .917 winning percentage on clay during the past 18 seasons. Prior to Saturday he’d been 11-0 in semfinals at Barcelona. In semifinal and final stages there, Nadal was 46-1 in sets and 22-0 in matches.

Medvedev Metmorphosis

Up until this season, Medvedev and clay held about as close a relationship as Donald Trump does with the truth. In Medvedev’s case, the truth hurt. It appeared that he had clay feet.

Playing on clay in 2017-18, Medvedev disappeared faster than the Tampa Bay Lightning in the playoffs. He was 1-7 in matches held on that surface.

Talk about a turnaround. With Saturday’s win over Nishikori, Medvedev is now 8-1 this season when playing on a clay court. That includes a quarterfinal triumph at Barcelona over world no. 1 Novak Djokovic.

The Final Call

Medvedev was the fourth betting choice entering the tournament at +1800. He’s through to his third final of the year. That’s tied with Roger Federer for the season’s lead.

Daniil Medvedev vs Dominic Thiem Statistical Comparison

Daniil Medvedev
VS
Dominic Thiem
14 World Ranking 5
1 2019 Titles 1
0 Head to Head 1
25-7 2019 Record 13-6
4 Career Wins 12
8-1 2019 Record on Clay 7-3

If the Russian wins in Barcelona, he’d join Federer with a season-high two titles.

Thiem, 1-0 vs Medvedev, opened second in the odds at +600. He just dispatched an 11-time champion, the world’s best clay player, on a court named in Nadal’s honor.

Take Thiem to win a tightly-contested final.

Pick: Dominic Thiem (-274)

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