ATP 2019 Barcelona Open Finals Odds: Thiem vs Medvedev
- Dominic Thiem beat Rafael Nadal for the fourth time on clay to advance to Sunday’s Barcelona Open final
- Opponent Daniil Medvedev is 8-1 on clay courts this season
- It will be just the 2nd Barcelona Open final since 1997 that won’t feature a Spanish player
Dominic Thiem has qualified for membership into a very exclusive club, thanks to his 6-4, 6-4 semifinal win over Rafael Nadal in the Barcelona Open. Thiem and Novak Djokovic are the only players to have beaten Nadal at least four times on a clay-court surface.
Dominic Thiem has STUNNED Rafael Nadal in Barcelona! ?
The Austrian wins a thrilling semi-final match 6-4 6-4.@bcnopenbs pic.twitter.com/rLUGZSlaJZ
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) April 27, 2019
That being said, Thiem can’t expect a walk in the park during Sunday’s final. Danill Medvedev has proven to be a clay-court dynamo in 2019. That includes his 6-4, 3-6, 7-5 semifinal verdict over Kei Nishikori.
Medvedev-Thiem Barcelona Open Final Odds
| Player | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daniil Medvedev | +3.5 (-104) | +234 | O 22 (-108) |
| Dominic Thiem | -3.5 (+124) | -274 | U 22 (-112) |
*Odds taken 04/27/19
Thiem previously played in the 2017 Barcelona Open final. He lost in straight sets 6-4, 6-1 to Nadal.
Ending the Reign of Spain
For the first time since 2015, the Barcelona Open champion won’t be a Spaniard. And for just the second time since 1997, neither finalist is from Spain.
Nadal was the three-time defending champion. He’d also won the Barcelona Open from 2005-09 and 2011-13. Countrymen Carlos Moya (2003), Tommy Robredo (2004) and Fernando Verdasco (2010) were other Spanish winners at Barcelona since 2003. It was a run which saw Spanish players capture 14 of 16 Barcelona Open titles.
The only non-Spaniard to win in this span was Japan’s Nishikori (2014-15). In 2014, he beat Colombia’s Santiago Giraldo in the previous final that was absent of Spanish players.
Dominating Thiem
Saturday’s semifinal match was the 12th head-to-head meeting between Thiem and Nadal. Nadal still owns an 8-4 edge. That includes a 7-4 advantage on a clay-court surface. But Thiem is starting to get the better of the master.
Thiem defeats Nadal on his own court! ? pic.twitter.com/5BWsTMvxcG
— Tennis Memes (@ATPWTAMemes) April 27, 2019
The Austrian has now beaten Nadal on clay in each of the past four seasons. Thiem won in 2018 at Madrid, in 2017 at Rome and in 2016 at Buenos Aires. Most importantly, in 2017 and 2018, Thiem was the only player to win a match from Nadal on a clay surface.
2016 Buenos Aires ??
2017 Rome ??
2018 Madrid ??
2019 Barcelona ??For a fourth consecutive year, Thiem defeats Nadal on clay ? pic.twitter.com/D49muBULGz
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) April 27, 2019
Thiem was viewed for years as the next in line after Nadal to be the world’s best clay performer.
He’s been called “The Prince Of Clay” and “The Natural Heir”. Thiem is known as “Muster 2.0”. That’s a reference to former Austrian star Thomas Muster, another dominant clay player.
GAME SET MATCH: Dominic Thiem Hands Rafael Nadal First-Ever Barcelona Semi-final Loss; 6-4, 6-4.
First, Fognini in Monte-carlo and now Thiem in Barcelona, it's been a while since Nadal looked this shaky on clay. pic.twitter.com/Yo3ZlxpL2q
— Tayo Salaam (@CTV_TayoS) April 27, 2019
Nadal is 421-38 for a .917 winning percentage on clay during the past 18 seasons. Prior to Saturday he’d been 11-0 in semfinals at Barcelona. In semifinal and final stages there, Nadal was 46-1 in sets and 22-0 in matches.
Medvedev Metmorphosis
Up until this season, Medvedev and clay held about as close a relationship as Donald Trump does with the truth. In Medvedev’s case, the truth hurt. It appeared that he had clay feet.
Playing on clay in 2017-18, Medvedev disappeared faster than the Tampa Bay Lightning in the playoffs. He was 1-7 in matches held on that surface.
Wow.
Daniil Medvedev beats the world number 1 Novak Djokovic 6-3, 4-6, 6-2 to reach the semifinals in Monte Carlo. His first M1000 SFs. Biggest win of his career. pic.twitter.com/5wLGzRTW1u
— José Morgado (@josemorgado) April 19, 2019
Talk about a turnaround. With Saturday’s win over Nishikori, Medvedev is now 8-1 this season when playing on a clay court. That includes a quarterfinal triumph at Barcelona over world no. 1 Novak Djokovic.
The Final Call
Medvedev was the fourth betting choice entering the tournament at +1800. He’s through to his third final of the year. That’s tied with Roger Federer for the season’s lead.
Daniil Medvedev vs Dominic Thiem Statistical Comparison
| 14 | World Ranking | 5 |
| 1 | 2019 Titles | 1 |
| 0 | Head to Head | 1 |
| 25-7 | 2019 Record | 13-6 |
| 4 | Career Wins | 12 |
| 8-1 | 2019 Record on Clay | 7-3 |
If the Russian wins in Barcelona, he’d join Federer with a season-high two titles.
Daniil Medvedev has done it! ?
● 25th win of 2019
● First Barcelona finalThe Russian defeats two-time champion Kei Nishikori 6-4 3-6 7-5.
?? @bcnopenbs pic.twitter.com/r96YPnaCs0
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) April 27, 2019
Thiem, 1-0 vs Medvedev, opened second in the odds at +600. He just dispatched an 11-time champion, the world’s best clay player, on a court named in Nadal’s honor.
Dominic Thiem with an unbelievable backhand! ?
Rafael Nadal's reaction says it all ?@bcnopenbs pic.twitter.com/78f9oYDK9t
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) April 27, 2019
Take Thiem to win a tightly-contested final.
Pick: Dominic Thiem (-274)
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
