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ATP Cup Semifinals Odds & Betting Preview: Australia vs Spain

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Tennis

Updated Apr 10, 2020 · 11:43 PM PDT

Rafael Nadal shouting
Spain's Rafael Nadal is the overwhelming -550 favorite to beat Australia's Alex De Minaur in their ATP Cup match. Photo By Carine06 (Flickr)
  • Spain’s Rafael Nadal is the overwhelming -550 favorite to beat Australia’s Alex De Minaur in their ATP Cup semifinal match
  • Australia’s Nick Krygios is the -200 choice to defeat Roberto Bautista Agut in their match
  • Nadal and Paolo Carreno Busta are the -165 chalk over Chris Guccione and John Peers if the match goes to a doubles tiebreaker

Rafael Nadal took an unusual path while leading Spain to ATP Cup quarterfinal success over Belgium.

The world’s #1 men’s player lost his singles match to David Goffin. Nadal later teamed with Pablo Carreno Busta to win a tiebreaking doubles match and move Spain into the semifinals against the hosts from Australia.

Nadal is an overwhelming -550 favorite to defeat Australia’s Alex De Minaur in their singles match on Saturday.

In an earlier Saturday singles match, Australia’s Nick Krygios is the -200 favorite over Spain’s Roberto Bautista Agut. Should the match require a doubles tiebreaker, the betting line gives the -165 edge to Spain’s Nadal and Paolo Carreno Busta over Aussies Chris Guccione and John Peers.

ATP Cup: Alex De Minaur vs Rafael Nadal Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Total
Alex De Minaur +365 +4.5 (EVEN) Over 21.0 (-110)
Rafael Nadal -550 -4.5 (-130) Under 21.0 (-120)

Odds taken Jan. 10

Nadal and De Minaur have met twice previously. One match was played in Australia, both took place on the biggest stages in tennis, each was played in the round of 32 and ended with the identical scoreline.

Both matches went Nadal’s way.

Last year, Nadal defeated De Minaur 6-1, 6-2, 6-4 at the Australian Open. In 2018, he stopped De Minaur 6-1, 6-2, 6-4 at Wimbledon.

Like Nadal, De Minaur lost his quarterfinal singles match to Great Britain’s Dan Evans. Then he teamed with Krygios to beat Brits Jamie Murray and Joe Salisbury in the tiebreaking doubles match to move on to the semis.

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Nadal, 33, struggled mightily in the Australian humidity as he was stunned in straight sets by world #11 Goffin 6-4, 7-6(7-3). It was the first loss he’d suffered since July.

He only lost back-to-back matches once during the 2019 season. One of those setbacks, a semifinal loss to Canada’s Denis Shapovalov in the Paris Masters, came about because Nadal was forced to withdraw from the tournament due to injury.

He lost just two matches in straight sets through all of the 2019 campaign.

Pick: Nadal (-550)

ATP Cup: Nick Krygios vs Roberto Bautista Agut Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Total
Nick Krygios -200 -2.0 (-130) Over 24.0 (-105)
Roberto Bautista Agut +160 +2.0 (EVEN) Under 24.0 (-125)

Australia will be counting on the bad boy of tennis getting them off to a good start in the ATP Cup semis. That was the formula the Aussies employed against the Brits. Krygios opened the quarterfinals by defeating Cameron Norrie.

He’ll face a much tougher test in this round. Agut is ranked #10 in the world, compared to the #29 slot occupied by Krygios. They’ve met once previously, and it was nearly five years ago. Krygios defeated Agut 6-4, 6-2.

Agut is a tough out for any player. His tenacity can frustrate and get the better of the world’s top players. He beat Novak Djokovic in the Doha semifinals en route to his only title of 2019.

When Krygios wants to focus on tennis and put aside his petulant antics, he’s also shown the ability to beat anyone. He’s posted 20 career wins against players ranked in the world’s top 10. Krygios is 6-3 in tournament finals and 6-2 in fifth sets.

Pick: Nick Krygios (-200)

ATP Cup: Cuccione/Peers vs Busta/Nadal Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Chris Guccione/John Peers +120 OFF OFF
Paolo Carreno Busta/Rafael Nadal -165 OFF OFF

Both of these countries got to the semis by posting tie-breaking triumphs on the doubles court. To reach the finals, they’ll likely be required to do so again.

Spain is sticking with the winning formula that doubled up for them against Belgium. Nadal and Busta rallied to defeat the Belgian team of Sander Gille and Joran Vliegen 6-7(7), 7-5, 10-7. They were just two points away from defeat and elimination.

Krygios and De Minaur paired to post a 3-6, 6-3, 18-16 in an epic tiebreaker against Britain. Surprisingly, though, the Aussies have opted to introduce new blood into the doubles match if it becomes necessary.

Chris Guccione and Jon Peers are slated to face Busta and Nadal.

Pick: Busta/Nadal (-170)

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