ATP Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships Odds & Preview: Favorite Novak Djokovic Returns
- Dubai marks the return of Novak Djokovic, for the first time since being deported from Australia
- The No. 1 seed, despite not having played in 2022, is the overwhelming favorite to win
- We break down the draw, and look at other contenders for the Dubai Duty Free title
In Dubai, at long last, Novak Djokovic will take to the court in 2022.
The world No. 1, who travelled to the Australian Open unvaccinated, ended up caught in a whirlwind of drama. He practiced a few days, then the Australian courts decided he was to be deported.
So his career has been interrupted, and no doubt his training as well. Yet he remains the overwhelming favorite to win the Dubai Duty Free tournament.
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships Singles Odds
| Seed | Player | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| [1] | Novak Djokovic (SRB) | -160 |
| [4] | Jannik Sinner (ITA) | +750 |
| [3] | Félix Auger-Aliassime (CAN) | +900 |
| [2] | Andrey Rublev (RUS) | +900 |
| [5] | Hubert Hurkacz (POL) | +1400 |
| [8] | Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP) | +2500 |
| [6] | Denis Shapovalov (CAN) | +2800 |
| – | Karen Khachanov (RUS) | +3300 |
| – | Marin Cilic (CRO) | +4000 |
| [7] | Aslan Karatsev (RUS) | +4000 |
| – | Daniel Evans (GBR) | +4000 |
| – | Alex de Minaur (AUS) | +5000 |
| – | Alexander Bublik (KAZ) | +5000 |
| – | Botic Van de Zandschulp (NED) | +5000 |
| – | Andy Murray (GBR) | +5000 |
| – | Nikoloz Basilashvili (GEO) | +6600 |
Odds as of Feb. 20 at BetMGM
It all shows the faith the sportsbooks have that wherever he shows up, under whatever circumstances, they expect the 34-year-old Serb to win. Most often, he does.
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But there are strange and unusual circumstances.
Top 10 Split Between Dubai, Acapulco
The top players are split between two quality ATP 500 events this week, this one in Dubai and another in the Acapulco Open.
But it’s fairly evident Acapulco has the stronger field.
(With an edge to Acapulco):
Medvedev, Nadal, Zverev, Tsitsipas and Berrettini in Acapulco; Djokovic, Rublev, Sinner. FAA, Shapovalov in Dubai.
— Stephanie Myles (@OpenCourt) February 12, 2022
That helps Djokovic’s cause (if he needs help).
Previous Performances By Top Contenders
| Name | No. of Participations | Best Result |
|---|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic | 11 | W (2020) |
| Jannik Sinner | 1 | QF (2021) |
| Félix Auger-Aliassime | First Appearance | – |
| Andrey Rublev | 3 | SF (2021) |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 3 | QF (2019) |
| Roberto Bautista Agut | 9 | W (2018) |
| Karen Khachanov | 5 | QF (2020) |
| Aslan Karatsev | 1 | W (2021) |
He’s looking at No. 8 seed Roberto Bautista Agut (at his strongest in the first months of the season, but straight off an exhausting win in Doha) in the quarters.
Then could come the winner of Auger-Aliassime (0-0) and Shapovalov (7-0) in the semis, both from Canada.
And then, perhaps defending champion Aslan Karatsev (1-1) or an over-tennised Rublev (1-0) in the final.
Djokovic is 9-3 against Bautista Agut. But the Spaniard has a win over him in nearby Doha, back in 2019. And he won the Dubai tournament in 2018.
The Serb has played Dubai 11 times (only once since 2016, in 2020 when he won it) and has one title and one final to show for it. By Djokovic standards, not a great event for him.
Previous Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships Winners and Finalists
| Year | Champion | Finalist |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | [WC] Aslan Karatsev (RUS) | [Q] Lloyd Harris (RSA) |
| 2020 | [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) | [2] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) |
| 2019 | [2] Roger Federer (SUI) | [5] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) |
| 2018 | [3] Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP) | [2] Lucas Pouille (FRA) |
| 2017 | [1] Andy Murray (GBR) | Fernando Verdasco (ESP) |
| 2016 | [2] Stan Wawrinka (SUI) | Marcos Baghdatis (CYP) |
| 2015 | [2] Roger Federer (SUI) | [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) |
| 2014 | [1] Roger Federer (SUI) | [3] Tomas Berdych (CZE) |
First-Round Matches to Watch
Andrey Rublev (-228) vs. Dan Evans (+175)
Two elements at play in this one. The first is that Evans has won their last two encounters. Both came in 2020 on outdoor hard court, and one of them was at this very tournament.
Rublev is coming off a busy two weeks indoors. He won the singles in Marseille just Sunday, his first title in a year. And then he had to come out and play the doubles final as well. On Saturday, he played long matches in singles and doubles. Add to that the quick turnaround and the travel to Dubai from France, and the fact that Dubai is practically home turf for the Brits.
Evans winning would be an upset only on paper.
Hubert Hurkacz (-200) vs Alexander Bublik (+155)
The mercurial Bublik has a win over Hurkacz in Dubai, at the 2020 edition of the event. He’s also a player capable of beating anyone on a given day.
Since his impressive effort in the ATP Cup to start the year, Hurkacz has lost to players ranked in the 60s in the second round of both his subsequent events. While he’s good at suddenly coming up with great weeks out of nowhere, Bublik may have the measure of him.
The Kazakh player won his first career ATP Tour title in Montpellier a few weeks ago, beating both Bautista Agut and Zverev (in the final). He’s had time to rest and reload.
Best Bet: Novak Djokovic (-160)
Good Longshot: Bautista Agut (+2500)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
