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ATP Finals Group Stage Odds & Picks: Nadal vs Medvedev & Tsitsipas vs Zverev

Alexander Zverev
Alexander Zverev looks to defend his title as he continues at the ATP Finals. Photo by Keith Allison (Wikimedia) [CC License]
  • The group stages at the ATP Finals will continue on Wednesday, November 13
  • Rafael Nadal will face off against Daniil Medvedev
  • Stefanos Tsitsipas will face off against Alexander Zverev

The Nitto ATP Finals in the season finale to the ATP Tour Season. The reigning champion is Alexander Zverev, and the winner of the tournament receives $9 million US. After losing to Alexander Zverev, Rafael Nadal is not the favorite in his match against Daniil Medvedev, and Zverev is the slight favorite in his match against Tsitsipas.

Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total at Bovada
Rafael Nadal +1.5 (-110) +120 Over 22.5 (-110)
Daniil Medvedev -1.5 (-120) -150 Under 22.5 (-120)

All odds taken Nov. 12, 2019

Nadal and Medvedev will play each other for the third time in their career on Wednesday. The World No.1 holds a 2-0 head-to-head record against Medvedev, but the Russian is favored in the match, going in with -150 odds.

Rafa is coming off a loss in straight sets to Zverev, and we’re unclear if it has to do with a recent abdominal injury. Either way, the Spaniard has not been playing his best, and he would likely have to beat both Medvedev and Tsitsipas to move on in this tournament, and end the year ranked No. 1.

Medvedev was one of the heavy favorites coming into this tournament but lost to Tsitsipas for the first time in his career. The two had faced each other five times before.

The two players last saw each other at the US Open finals where Nadal took home the trophy. The result of this match will come down to who can recover the best from their first losses. Nadal has pressure to perform well with regaining his No. 1 ranking, and Medvedev looked down on himself in his match against Tsitsipas.

Best Bet

For this match, the best bet would be Daniil Medvedev. It’s not every day that Rafael Nadal isn’t the favorite in one of his matches, and when he isn’t, there’s reason for it. Nadal may be hurt and is not playing at the top of his game, while Medvedev has been able to showcase lately why he’s one of the top players in the world.

Best Bet: Daniil Medvedev -150

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Alexander Zverev Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total at Bovada
Stefanos Tsitsipas +0.5 (-125) -110 Over 24.0 (-110)
Alexander Zverev -0.5 (-105) -115 Under 24.0 (-120)

This will be the fifth time Tsitsipas and Zverev have faced each other in their young careers. Tsitsipas holds a 3-1 head-to-head record against the German.

Stefanos Tsitsipas beat Daniil Medvedev for the first time in his career in his first match, and was playing with much control, winning 89% of points that landed. He made five aces, and didn’t have a single double fault.

The 22-year old is coming off a huge win against Rafa, where he beat the World No. 1 in straight sets, 6-2, 6-4. Zverev is the defending champion who has something to prove, and starting with a win against Rafael Nadal set that bar.

The Greek has won the last three matches against the defending champ, most recently in Beijing, and despite being the defending champion, Zeverev has shown how he can lose focus after a big win. This could give Tsitsipas the advantage necessary to win and go 2-0 in the group stage.

Best Bet

This match will be a marquee matchup for the group stages. Both players won their first match of the tournament, and have the opportunity to leave the group stages 2-0. Both players are playing some of the best tennis that we have seen from them in their young careers, and both play a similar type of game.

The odds are close, with Zverev favored at -115, and Tsitsipas right behind him at -110. History shows that it’s usually Tsitsipas who comes out on top against Zverev, but Zverev has some motivation behind him, trying to repeat as champion.

Best Bet: Alexander Zverev -115

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