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ATP Japan Open Final Odds & Pick: Djokovic vs Millman

Hayley Graham

by Hayley Graham in Tennis

Updated Apr 8, 2020 · 11:28 AM PDT

Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic will take on Australian John Millman in the 2019 Japan Open Finals. Photo by Carine (Twitter)
  • Novak Djokovic and John Millman will face off in the Japan Open Finals on Sunday at 2:30am EST
  • Djokovic defeated 2017 champion on Saturday to reach the finals
  • Get the odds, our pick, and all the info you need to bet the final below

Novak Djokovic and John Millman will face each other in the 2019 Japan Open Finals. Djokovic is the heavy favorite at -2500 odds, and Millman behind him at +1200. Novak is competing in this tournament for the first time, and is trying to capture his 10th title on a tournament main draw debut. Millman has defeated all odds being here in the finals, and he was a qualifier coming into this tournament.

2019 Japan Open Final Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Novak Djokovic -5.5 (-130) -2500 O 19.0 (-125)
John Millman +5.5 (even) +1200 U 19.0 (-105)

*Odds taken 10/5/19

Djokovic’s Road to the Finals

Novak Djokovic has been nothing short of amazing once again this tournament. In a mere hour and 29 minutes, he defeated David Goffin, the 2017 Tokyo Champion 6-3, 6-4. It’s been a fairly easy, straightforward run for Djokovic this tournament. He has yet to drop a set through all four of his matches, not a single set has gone to a tiebreak, and he’s only broke twice this entire tournament.

Djokovic’s first set against Goffin lasted 46 minutes, just four minutes short of the length of Djokovic’s quarterfinal match. Novak broke Goffin in his first return game, and it was essentially game over from there, as Goffin was never able to catch back up. Djokovic went on to win 87% of his first serve points.

Millman’s Road to the Finals

John Millman has reached his first ATP 500 Final, and becomes the fifth player in 2019 to reach an ATP Tour final as a qualifier. His road to the finals hasn’t been a super smooth one. A week ago, Millman had to save three match points in the first round of qualifying. But the Australian beat Reilly Opelka in the semifinals, 6-3, 7-6(4), to ultimately reach his first final. And after losing his first set of the main draw, Millman has won eight consecutive sets.

In his semifinal match, Millman hit the ground running, putting a ton of pressure on Opelka. He broke him in his first return game, and this was key as the US Open champ has only dropped serve once in the past 31 service games this tournament. Millman was only able to land 50% of her first serves in the first set, which caused him some issues, but he faced very few other difficulties.


The two players have faced each other twice before, with Djokovic taking both matches. The last time they saw each other was in the quarterfinals at the US Open in 2018, where the match went three sets, with the Serbian taking it 6-3, 6-4, 6-4.

Djokovic vs Millman

Novak Djokovic
John Millman


2 Wins 0
1 Rank 80
32 (5/22/1987) Age 30 (6/14/1989)

Where To Put Your Money

Novak Djokovic is the easy bet here. It would take a lot for Millman to defeat the Serbian player. Not only is Djokovic number one in the world, but he’s also had himself quite the tournament in Japan. It would be one thing if he had been struggling a little bit, but he’s shown no signs of struggle with not having dropped a set, and breezing by his opponents.

Millman will give him some trouble, Novak hasn’t really played anyone who’s made him dig deep. But the Australian has played Djokovic before, he knows how to prepare, and he knows how to play against him. But despite all that, it won’t be enough to defeat the World No.1, but it will give him a challenge.

Pick: Djokovic (-2500)

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