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Australian Open Women’s Singles Predictions, Odds & Pick to Win: Swiatek the Favorite

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Jan 15, 2023 · 7:00 AM PST

Iga Swiatek (POL)
Nov 5, 2022; Forth Worth, TX, USA; Iga Swiatek (POL) celebrates after defeating Coco Gauff (USA) on day six of the WTA Finals at Dickies Arena. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
  • Iga Swiatek, world No. 1 by a wide margin, is the overwhelming favorite to win her first Australian Open
  • No. 5 seed Aryna Sabalenka and No. 3 Jessica Pegula are the only other players under +1000
  • Scroll down as we analyse the odds, look at some early matches and pick a winner.

Until something major changes, WTA No. 1 Iga Swiatek is going to be the strong favorite in every tournament she enters. And as the Australian Open Women’s Singles, the first Grand Slam event of 2023, begins on Monday (Sunday night ET), the 21-year-old Polish player is at the top of the list of favorites.

Australian Open Open Women’s Singles Odds

Seed Player Odds
[1] Iga Swiatek (POL) +240
[5] Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) +600
[3] Jessica Pegula (USA) +900
[4] Caroline Garcia (FRA) +1200
[7] Coco Gauff (USA) +1400
[2] Ons Jabeur (TUN) +1400
[12] Belinda Bencic (SUI) +2000
[9] Veronika Kudermetova (RUS) +2500
[22] Elena Rybakina (KAZ) +2500
[13] Danielle Collins (USA) +2800
[20] Barbora Krejcikova (CZE) +2800
[6] Maria Sakkari (GRE) +3500
[10] Madison Keys (USA) +4000
[18] Liudmila Samsonova (RUS) +4000
[29] Zheng Qinwen (CHN) +4500
Leylah Annie Fernandez (CAN) +8000
Bianca Andreescu (CAN) +10000

Odds as of Jan. 15 at Barstool Sportsbook.  Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Australian Open

Swiatek was at +450 when the US Open began last September. She won it. Less than five months later, she’s cut her odds of winning in Melbourne nearly in half from that tournament.

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Defending Champion Retired – and Pregnant

Ashleigh Barty, who won her “home” Slam a year ago and shortly afterwards announced her retirement, has been on the grounds doing charity and sponsorship things.

But as she’s already expecting her first child, she’s not in the picture.

Late Withdrawals mean Badosa, Tomljanovic Out

Paula Badosa was the No. 11 seed this year; while she always seems to be in the mix of players people think might pull off a major, she’s never done particularly well at them.

Her withdrawal unbalances the draw a little, but it doesn’t eliminate a true contender.

Also out is two-time champion Naomi Osaka, who has barely played the last few years and was never really expected to play in 2023. Osaka, too, is expecting her first child.

Potential Quarterfinals

If the seedings play out – that’s a huge “if” – these are the quarterfinals on paper.

In brackets are the players in each quarter who may upset the order of things.

–[1] Iga Swiatek vs. [7] Coco Gauff  (No. 13 Danielle Collins, No. 22 Elena Rybakina; No. 29 Zheng Qinwen, Bianca Andreescu)
–[3] Jessica Pegula vs. [6] Maria Sakkari (No. 10 Madison Keys, No. 15 Petra Kvitova)
–[4] Caroline Garcia vs. [8] Daria Kasatkina (No. 9 Veronika Kudermetova, Leylah Fernandez)
–[2] Ons Jabeur vs. [5] Aryna Sabalenka (No. 12 Belinda Bencic, No. 14 Beatriz Haddad Maia)

Can Sabalenka Finally Win the Big One?

Among those who might make a run, Aryna Sabalenka looks to have a very clear path to the second week, where she might well meet Belinda Bencic.

Sabalenka won the first WTA 500 tournament in Adelaide two weeks ago; Bencic won the second one last week.

The draws at those events were fierce, even with some late-week withdrawals. Both are in fine form.

With Barty’s retirement, there are only two former Australian Open champions in the field: 2020 champ Sofia Kenin (currently ranked No. 203) and 2012/2013 champion Victoria Azarenka (who is 33 and the No. 24 seed).

As it happens, they meet in the first round.

Previous Australian Open Women’s Champions

Year Champion Status
2022 Ashleigh Barty (AUS) Retired and Pregnant
2021 Naomi Osaka (JPN) Pregnant
2020 Sofia Kenin (USA) Ranked No. 203
2019 Naomi Osaka (JPN) Pregnant
2018 Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) Retired with Two Kids
2017 Serena Williams Retired with One Kid
2016 Angelique Kerber Pregnant
2015 Serena Williams Retired with One Kid
2014 Li Na Retired with Two Kids
2013 Victoria Azarenka Ranked No. 24 (One Kid)

Not only is Swiatek the major favorite to win the tournament, she’s the only one among the top eight seeds to even get past the quarterfinals.

Only three of the eight top seeds have even gotten to the final eight  as it happens, the top three.

Australian Open Open Women’s Top Seeds – Best Results

Player Appearances Main Draw Career W/L Best Result
[1] Iga Swiatek 4 12-4 SF (2022)
[2] Ons Jabeur 5 6-5 QF (2020)
[3] Jessica Pegula 3 8-3 QF (2021, 2022)
[4] Caroline Garcia 11 12-11 R16 (2018)
[5] Aryna Sabalenka 5 8-5 R16 (2021, 2022)
[6] Maria Sakkari 7 11-7 R16 (2020, 2022)
[7] Coco Gauff 3 4-3 R16 (2020)
[8] Daria Kasatkina 7 6-7 R32 (2016, 2022)

First-Round Match Predictions

[25] Marie Bouzkova vs Bianca Andreescu (Over 2.5 sets: +143)

[24] Victoria Azarenka vs [PR] Sofia Kenin (Azarenka in Three Sets: +280)

[28] Amanda Anisimova vs Marta Kostyuk (Kostyuk in Three Sets: +360)

[2] Ons Jabeur vs Tamara Zidansek (Zidansek +5.5 Games: +120)

Best Bet: Iga Swiatek (+240)

Longshot: Belinda Bencic (+2000)

 

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