Australian Open Women’s Singles Predictions, Odds & Pick to Win: Swiatek the Favorite
- Iga Swiatek, world No. 1 by a wide margin, is the overwhelming favorite to win her first Australian Open
- No. 5 seed Aryna Sabalenka and No. 3 Jessica Pegula are the only other players under +1000
- Scroll down as we analyse the odds, look at some early matches and pick a winner.
Until something major changes, WTA No. 1 Iga Swiatek is going to be the strong favorite in every tournament she enters. And as the Australian Open Women’s Singles, the first Grand Slam event of 2023, begins on Monday (Sunday night ET), the 21-year-old Polish player is at the top of the list of favorites.
Australian Open Open Women’s Singles Odds
|||Iga Swiatek (POL)||+240|
|||Aryna Sabalenka (BLR)||+600|
|||Jessica Pegula (USA)||+900|
|||Caroline Garcia (FRA)||+1200|
|||Coco Gauff (USA)||+1400|
|||Ons Jabeur (TUN)||+1400|
|||Belinda Bencic (SUI)||+2000|
|||Veronika Kudermetova (RUS)||+2500|
|||Elena Rybakina (KAZ)||+2500|
|||Danielle Collins (USA)||+2800|
|||Barbora Krejcikova (CZE)||+2800|
|||Maria Sakkari (GRE)||+3500|
|||Madison Keys (USA)||+4000|
|||Liudmila Samsonova (RUS)||+4000|
|||Zheng Qinwen (CHN)||+4500|
|–||Leylah Annie Fernandez (CAN)||+8000|
|–||Bianca Andreescu (CAN)||+10000|
Odds as of Jan. 15 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Australian Open
Swiatek was at +450 when the US Open began last September. She won it. Less than five months later, she’s cut her odds of winning in Melbourne nearly in half from that tournament.
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Defending Champion Retired – and Pregnant
Ashleigh Barty, who won her “home” Slam a year ago and shortly afterwards announced her retirement, has been on the grounds doing charity and sponsorship things.
Iga Swiatek about Ash Barty slice😅pic.twitter.com/M3oFxqLf6M
— 𝐿𝓁𝒶𝓂𝒶 𝕊𝕒𝕪𝕤☄🌠🚀 (@tennis_lol) January 14, 2023
But as she’s already expecting her first child, she’s not in the picture.
Late Withdrawals mean Badosa, Tomljanovic Out
Paula Badosa was the No. 11 seed this year; while she always seems to be in the mix of players people think might pull off a major, she’s never done particularly well at them.
Her withdrawal unbalances the draw a little, but it doesn’t eliminate a true contender.
Also out is two-time champion Naomi Osaka, who has barely played the last few years and was never really expected to play in 2023. Osaka, too, is expecting her first child.
If the seedings play out – that’s a huge “if” – these are the quarterfinals on paper.
In brackets are the players in each quarter who may upset the order of things.
– Iga Swiatek vs.  Coco Gauff (No. 13 Danielle Collins, No. 22 Elena Rybakina; No. 29 Zheng Qinwen, Bianca Andreescu)
– Jessica Pegula vs.  Maria Sakkari (No. 10 Madison Keys, No. 15 Petra Kvitova)
– Caroline Garcia vs.  Daria Kasatkina (No. 9 Veronika Kudermetova, Leylah Fernandez)
– Ons Jabeur vs.  Aryna Sabalenka (No. 12 Belinda Bencic, No. 14 Beatriz Haddad Maia)
Can Sabalenka Finally Win the Big One?
Among those who might make a run, Aryna Sabalenka looks to have a very clear path to the second week, where she might well meet Belinda Bencic.
Sabalenka won the first WTA 500 tournament in Adelaide two weeks ago; Bencic won the second one last week.
Back in the winner's circle.
World No.5 Aryna Sabalenka opens her season with a perfect week in Adelaide to capture her 11th title and 1st since 2021 Madrid.
Sabalenka defeats Linda Noskova 63 76 to go 8-0 in sets for the week. #AdelaideTennis pic.twitter.com/PWYxYDQ1XN
— WTA Insider (@WTA_insider) January 8, 2023
The draws at those events were fierce, even with some late-week withdrawals. Both are in fine form.
With Barty’s retirement, there are only two former Australian Open champions in the field: 2020 champ Sofia Kenin (currently ranked No. 203) and 2012/2013 champion Victoria Azarenka (who is 33 and the No. 24 seed).
As it happens, they meet in the first round.
Previous Australian Open Women’s Champions
|2022||Ashleigh Barty (AUS)||Retired and Pregnant|
|2021||Naomi Osaka (JPN)||Pregnant|
|2020||Sofia Kenin (USA)||Ranked No. 203|
|2019||Naomi Osaka (JPN)||Pregnant|
|2018||Caroline Wozniacki (DEN)||Retired with Two Kids|
|2017||Serena Williams||Retired with One Kid|
|2015||Serena Williams||Retired with One Kid|
|2014||Li Na||Retired with Two Kids|
|2013||Victoria Azarenka||Ranked No. 24 (One Kid)|
Not only is Swiatek the major favorite to win the tournament, she’s the only one among the top eight seeds to even get past the quarterfinals.
Only three of the eight top seeds have even gotten to the final eight as it happens, the top three.
Australian Open Open Women’s Top Seeds – Best Results
|Player||Appearances||Main Draw Career W/L||Best Result|
| Iga Swiatek||4||12-4||SF (2022)|
| Ons Jabeur||5||6-5||QF (2020)|
| Jessica Pegula||3||8-3||QF (2021, 2022)|
| Caroline Garcia||11||12-11||R16 (2018)|
| Aryna Sabalenka||5||8-5||R16 (2021, 2022)|
| Maria Sakkari||7||11-7||R16 (2020, 2022)|
| Coco Gauff||3||4-3||R16 (2020)|
| Daria Kasatkina||7||6-7||R32 (2016, 2022)|
First-Round Match Predictions Marie Bouzkova vs Bianca Andreescu (Over 2.5 sets: +143)  Victoria Azarenka vs [PR] Sofia Kenin (Azarenka in Three Sets: +280)  Amanda Anisimova vs Marta Kostyuk (Kostyuk in Three Sets: +360)  Ons Jabeur vs Tamara Zidansek (Zidansek +5.5 Games: +120)
Best Bet: Iga Swiatek (+240)
Longshot: Belinda Bencic (+2000)
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