Ben Shelton vs Dane Sweeny Picks, Predictions & Best Odds (Jan 21)
By Sascha Paruk in Tennis
Published:
- Top-ranked American Ben Shelton faces Aussie Dane Sweeny in the second round in Melbourne on Wednesday
- Shelton conceded just three break-point chances in his straight-sets win on Monday
- See the Shelton vs Sweeny picks and predictions, plus the best-available odds
Top-ranked American and world #7 Ben Shelton continues his 2026 Australian Open campaign on Wednesday night with, on paper, a cupcake matchup against world #186 Dane Sweeny. But the Aussie qualifier is a dangerous hardcourt opponent who already took down Gael Monfils in the first round.
Shelton vs Sweeny is tentatively scheduled for 8:30 pm ET on Wednesday night (12:30 pm on Thursday afternoon, local time). The table below sets out a range of Shelton vs Sweeny odds, plus the sportsbook currently offering the best price for each market. Under the table, find my top Shelton vs Sweeny picks and predictions. (Flawed line alert!)
Shelton vs Sweeny Odds & Betting Lines
On the moneyline, Shelton is -950 at DraftKings and considerably shorter at other books (as short as -1450). Sweeny’s best moneyline price is +800 at bet365.
The game spread favors Shelton by 7.5 games, with Sweeny a slight favorite to cover that line.
FanDuel appears to have posted a faulty set-spread line, listing Shelton -1.5 at just -172. That bet is as short as -455 at other sportsbooks. Hammer that line at FanDuel if you still can.
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Shelton is the eighth-favorite in the Australian Open odds at +6200. Everyone other than Jannik Sinner (-133) and Carlos Alcaraz (+164) are an afterthought.
Sweeny and Shelton have never met before on any surface.
Shelton vs Sweeny Picks
- First set over 12.5 games (+330 at DraftKings)
- Shelton -1.5 sets (-172 at FanDuel)
Dane Sweeny has had some quality wins in his short career, but he’s ranked just 267th in ELO at Tennis Abstract (compared to Shelton in 13th) and this is a terrible matchup for the diminutive Aussie.
In the long run, Sweeny is going to be overmatched and overpowered. The 24-year-old is just 5’6 on a good day and lacks the weapons to keep up with Shelton over multiple sets. He’s a grinder and, against a more inconsistent and temperamental player like Gael Monfils, that can generate success. Shelton isn’t going to sit on the baseline and rally; his hyper-aggressive approach is the kryptonite for someone like Dane Sweeny, who relies on his speed and agility to outlast his opponents, both in individual points and matches as a whole.
Sweeny had more double-faults (three) than aces (two) in the first round. Shelton fired 15 aces in his straight-sets win over world #33 Ugo Humbert (with just a pair of doubles).
I will take a big swing on Sweeny forcing a first-set tiebreak, though. He’s playing the best tennis of his career and will have a ton of fan support behind him. That could lead to overperforming in the first set while adrenaline is at its highest.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
