- Bianca Andreescu is the favorite to beat Petric Martic Thursday and reach the Italian Open semifinals
- It’s the first instalment of Andreescu vs Martic; both boast interesting variety on the court
- Can Martic pull off the upset? We break down the possibilities below
Bianca Andreescu is the favorite against veteran Croat Petra Martic in a third-round match Thursday, May 12 that will feature a fair few changes of pace.
The match should get under way no later than 7 am ET.
Andreescu vs Martic Odds
|[PR] Bianca Andreescu (CAN)||-3.5 (+120)||-159||O 21.5 (-113)|
|[Q] Petra Martic (CRO)||+3.5 (-152)||+128||U 21.5 (-113)|
Odds as of May 11 at Barstool Sportsbook
As a player who was ranked No. 14 just two years ago, Martic is a level above the average qualifier.
And she has shown it, posting a three-set win over the talented Czech Karolina Muchova. And then, she backed it up with a straight-sets, upset win over struggling No. 5 seed Anett Kontaveit.
The only time Martic and Kontaveit met on clay, two years ago in Palermo, Italy, Kontaveit dropped just six games.
Andreescu Gaining Consistency
Last week in Madrid marked the first time since last summer’s US Open that Andreescu won back-to-back matches.
A positive step. And after beating Nuria Parrizas Diaz on Wednesday, she has now accomplished that two weeks in a row, both in WTA 1000-level tournaments.
Her competitive fire was appropriately good against the 30-year-old Spaniard. It wasn’t at peak level, the way it was against Emma Raducanu in her opening around, before the British teenager retired.
It was just about right, especially when Parrizas Diaz gave her a better battle than most expected.
Andreescu vs Martic, not Andreescu vs Kontaveit
As we alluded to in yesterday’s preview, the biggest danger zone for Andreescu, after the attention drawn by her opening match, was to have a natural letdown against a lower-ranked, obscure player she was expected to beat.
Andreescu kept the intensity high. She eventually figured out that the forehand was Parrizas Diaz’s less consistent side.
And even though it was not a great serving day for her, the Canadian returned well enough at the right times to make good on her opportunities.
As well, she was firm when she needed to be; Andreescu saved 9-of-12 break-point opportunities against her – 10 of those in the second set.
More pertinently, she had four break point chances against Parrizas Diaz – and she converted all of them.
Andreescu vs Martic Head-to-Head
|21 (June 16, 2000)||Age||31 (Jan. 19, 1991)|
|Mississauga, Canada||Birthplace||Split, Croatia|
|3||Career WTA Singles Titles||1|
|No. 4 (Oct. 21, 2019)||Career High Ranking||No. 14 (Jan. 13, 2020)|
|No. 90||Current Ranking||No. 47|
|$7,646,337||Career Prize Money||$6,629,440|
|5-2||2022 Won/Loss record||13-8|
|0||Career Head to Head||0|
Martic, Not Kontaveit in the Third Round
If Andreescu might have expected to play Kontaveit on Thursday, not Martic, she was likely happy about the upset.
Kontaveit is 3-0, head-to-head against Andreescu. And the Estonian has never lost a set.
The Canadian is meeting Martic for the first time. And she’s well capable of countering the things Martic does well – mostly a slice backhand that bites, and a solid serve befitting her 5-11 height.
The winner will play either world No. 1 Iga Swiatek, or former world No. 1 Victoria Azarenka in the quarterfinals on Friday.
Either way, it would be a first for Andreescu. Either she gives herself a great chance to get to the semifinals against Azarenka. Or, she gets to face the top player in the world – the best player, and the most in-form player – for the first time. From the start, Swiatek has been the favorite to defend her title in Rome.
That’ll be a fine gauge of where her tennis is.
But first things first. Martic offers plenty of challenges on a clay court. And she has significantly more experience on it.
Andreescu has won one career match at the French Open; Martic has played it 11 times and was a quarterfinalist a few years ago.
Working against Martic is her 5-31 career record against top-10 players; one of those wins was the one against Kontaveit.
While Andreescu isn’t a top-10 player right now, she is starting to play top-10 tennis again.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 sets (+140)