Bublik vs Medvedev Prediction, Odds & Picks for Halle Open Final

• Kazakhstan’s Alexander Bublik takes on third seed Daniil Medvedev in the Halle Open final on Sunday
• Medvedev holds a perfect 7-0 head-to-head record against Bublik
• See my Bublik vs Medvedev picks and predictions, along with the betting odds for the Halle Open final

An unlikely finalist meets a desperate champion in Sunday’s Halle Open showdown. Alexander Bublik has caught fire at the perfect time, while Daniil Medvedev seeks to end a title drought that’s stretched far too long for a player of his caliber. Online sportsbooks make the Russian a clear favorite, but grass has a way of leveling the playing field.

The final begins at 9am ET from the OWL Arena in Halle, Germany, with the Tennis Channel providing broadcast coverage.

Bublik vs Medvedev Picks and Predictions

• Over 22.5 Total Games (-155 at BetMGM)
• Value Play: Medvedev to Win 2-1 (+300 at BetMGM)

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Forget the moneyline. The real value in this Bublik vs Medvedev final lies in the total games market.

Both players are serving at an elite level this week. Bublik has blasted 65 aces through four matches, averaging an absurd 16.3 per match. He’s winning 81% of first serve points and has been virtually unbreakable when his delivery is on. That’s grass court tennis at its finest.

Medvedev’s numbers aren’t far behind. The Russian has fired 41 aces while winning 77% of first serve points. More tellingly, he’s faced just nine break points in 93 games. When two players are serving this well on grass, breaks become precious commodities.

There are plenty of reasons the over in my best bet Sunday. Even in Medvedev’s dominant 7-0 head-to-head record, Bublik has pushed four of those matches over 22.5 games. That includes their most recent meeting in Madrid, where Medvedev won 7-6, 6-4. Close sets, few breaks, extended games. It’s their pattern.

The psychological dynamics add another layer. Medvedev hasn’t won a title since Rome 2023. That pressure builds with each passing tournament. Meanwhile, Bublik is trying to snap an 0-7 losing streak against the Russian. Both players might start cautiously, feeling each other out rather than going for broke early.

Bublik vs Medvedev H2H Results

This is their first meeting on grass, and that surface change matters. Bublik won this very title in 2023 and plays his best tennis on these courts. His unpredictable style becomes even more dangerous when points are shortened by the surface. Add in his current hot streak, which includes a stunning victory over world No. 1 Jannik Sinner, and you have all the ingredients for extended sets.

The pricing tells the story. At -155, the books are giving this roughly a 60% chance of going over. But based on both players’ serving stats this week and their historical patterns, this number should be closer to -180. That’s a significant edge worth exploiting. Yes, you could play it safer with over 23.5 at -110, but when you’ve identified genuine value, sometimes it’s worth laying the extra juice.

For those seeking plus money, Medvedev to win 2-1 at +300 offers intriguing value. It aligns perfectly with the over while capturing the most likely match scenario. Medvedev’s elite defense and title desperation should carry him through, but Bublik won’t go quietly. That’s what makes the over 22.5 the most analytically sound play.

Bublik vs Medvedev Betting Odds

The over 22.5 games at -155 is available at BetMGM. If you’re more risk-averse, over 23.5 sits at -110. Medvedev’s moneyline sits at -165, implying a 62.3% win probability. The set betting market has Medvedev 2-1 at +300, offering nice value for those predicting the Russian will win a three-setter.

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Odds as of June 21 at BetMGM. Check out SBD’s BetMGM review to see the available sign-up bonuses.

The market has undervalued this total. Both players have too much serving firepower for this to be a quick match. When you combine elite serving, grass court conditions, and the pressure of a final, extended games become almost inevitable. Trust the numbers on this one.

Sunday promises drama in Halle. A former champion seeking redemption against a star desperate to end his title drought. When the serves are this big and the stakes this high, buckle up for a marathon.