Upcoming Match-ups

ATP China Open Final Odds & Pick: Dominic Thiem vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Hans Themistode

by Hans Themistode in Tennis

Updated Mar 31, 2020 · 4:45 PM PDT

Stefanos Tsitsipas will face Dominic Thiem in the China Open final. Photo by JC (flickr) [CC License].
  • Dominic Thiem and Stefanos Tsitsipas square off in the China Open final
  • This will be the sixth meeting between the two finalists
  • Read below for a finals preview and prediction

The final matchup in the China Open is one that fans will surely enjoy. On one side of the net we have the number one seeded Dominic Thiem taking on the number three seed in Stefanos Tsitsipas. This is a tennis fan’s dream as both men are in supreme form going into this match.

With this contest being so evenly matched, it comes as no surprise to see the odds so close. Both men have similar skill sets and it might simply be a case of will over skill to see who gets over the finish line.

Dominic Thiem vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Stefanos Tsitsipas +1.5 (-109) -120 O 23 ½(-110)
Dominic Thiem -1.5 (-111) +100 U 23 ½(-110)

Odds taken 10/05/2019

How did they Get Here?

Although both men have made it this far, they took different paths to get here.

For Tsitsipas, he started his China Open run by dropping the first set to his opening round opponent Dusan Lajovic. Tsitsipas managed to rally back to win the following two sets in order to move on to the next round. Waiting for him there, was a date with Nikoloz Basilashvili.

Again, Tsitsipas found himself on the losing end of the first set. Luckily for him, he quickly adapted and took the next two sets convincingly.

Things wouldn’t get any easier for the number three seed as he was up against hard court specialist and big hitting John Isner. It isn’t surprising to see that these two played a very close tiebreaker in the first set, but unlike his first two matches, he managed to win the opening frame. Tsitsipas made it look easy in the second set as he would once again move on.


His last and biggest test came in the form of his good friend and former Laver Cup teammate Alexander Zverev. Tsitsipas came back from an early break in the first set and also trailed in the tiebreak in order to win the match in straight sets.

As for his opponent Dominic Thiem, he had been cruising along this entire tournament, winning every match in straight sets. He didn’t face bad competition either. Matchups against Richard Gasquet, Zhizhen Zhang and Andy Murray saw the top seed barely break a sweat.

In his semi-final against Karen Khachanov however, he got more than he bargained for. For the first time in the tournament, Thiem found himself on the losing end of a set. Khachanov came out guns blazing to start things off. Thiem would bounce back in the second frame but the third saw Thiem down a break. It looked like his time in the China Open was coming to an end until he dug deep and not only broke back but broke once more to book his trip to the final.

How They Matchup

When these two players come face to face with one another, there won’t be many surprises as they know each others’ game both inside and out.

In addition to being on the same team that won the Laver Cup this past September, this will mark the sixth time in their careers that they will be facing one another. As it currently stands, Thiem holds a slight edge winning three of those contests.

Every single one of their matchups have taken place in 2018 with Thiem winning the most recent on the hard courts of the Canadian Masters.


Dominic Thiem
Stefanos Tsitsipas
3 Wins Against Each Other 2
14-7 Win/loss Record On Hard Courts 25-14
37-15 Total Wins/losses On The Year 46-22
3 Titles Won This Year 2


It’s been an unbelievable year for them both. In terms of their records on the year, you won’t find many losses by either man. Tsitsipas has won 46 contest on the year while only losing 22. His hard court record checks in at an impressive 25-14 as well.

Not to be outdone, Thiem has had plenty of success in his own right this year. His 37-15 record on the year is an outstanding one while his hard court record is eye catching, standing at 14-7. In short, both men have been playing great all year.

Best Bet

This is the sort of matchup that can go either way. A case can be made in both directions but we have to choose a side here.

Thiem has been on a roll all tournament long but so has Tsitsipas. When it comes down to it, Tsitsipas has faced the better competition. He has also looked adversity square in the face and didn’t blink.

He’ll have some rocky moments in this one and it wouldn’t be a shock to see Thiem pull it out but Tsitsipas is playing too good to bet against him.

Go with Tsitsipas.

Author Image