- Sabalenka vs Collins is likely to be the hardest-hitting match of the women’s tournament. Also the loudest
- The round of 16 encounter Monday night has Sabalenka as the slight favorite, Collins more in form
- Read on as we break down the matchup and look at the best upset value
Danielle Collins came into this US Open with barely any tennis played over the last few months.
You can’t tell; she looks as good as she did when she made the Australian Open final in January.
Collins vs Sabalenka Odds
| Danielle Collins (USA)||+1.5 (-105)||+120||O 21.5 (-114)|
| Aryna Sabalenka (BLR)||-1.5 (-115)||-141||U 21.5 (-106)|
Sabalenka Solving Serving Demons
For most of the season, Sabalenka (ranked No. 2 in the world just about a year ago) has been dealing with the serving yips.
The double faults have been coming in industrial quantities, even if she’s still managed to win a lot of matches.
But so far this US Open, it’s been up and down.
She was minus-1 (three aces, four doubles) in a routine first-round win over American qualifier Catherine Harrison.
The 2021 US Open Semifinalist and World #6 Aryna Sabalenka conquers Giant Killer Kaia Kanepi 2-6 7-6(8) 6-4 despite 41 UFE (11 DFs) – for the 1st time in 3 meetings & avenges her AO R4 loss from this year. Kanepi lead 6-2 5-1 and lead 5-2 in the 2nd set TB + had 2 match points.
— Vansh (@vanshv2k) September 1, 2022
Her second win, over veteran Kaia Kanepi, was off the charts. Sabalenka was came all the way back to post a 2-6, 7-6 (8), 6-4 win.
There were 11 double faults in that one, But somehow she survived it.
She returned to dominance against a less-fierce rival, qualifier Clara Burel, giving up just two games and double-faulting only twice in the 68-minute match.
Collins vs Sabalenka Head-to-Head
|28 (Dec. 13, 1993)||Age||24 (May 5, 1998)|
|St. Petersburg, Fla.||Birthplace||Minsk, Belarus|
|2||Career WTA Singles Titles||10|
|No. 7 (July 11, 2022)||Career-Best Ranking||No. 2 (Aug. 23, 2021)|
|No. 19||Current Ranking||No. 6|
|$5,496,704||Career Prize Money||$10,683,065|
|15-8||2022 Won/Loss Record||27-17|
Collins Coming Back in Style
Not much was expected of Collins when she was still in the US Open draw on the first day.
The 28-year-old American has played just eight tournaments in 2022. And she has played just two matches since the French Open in May – one at Wimbledon, and the other right after Wimbledon, on clay in Lausanne, Switzerland.
She missed the entire US Open leadup tour – San Jose, Toronto, Cincinnati – this summer before arriving in New York.
And she had a tough draw – even if Naomi Osaka isn’t the Osaka who won this event twice, she’s still a formidable opponent to run into in the first round.
And Collins came out in vintage form – loud and proud and pumped up. She dispatched Osaka in two sets. Then took care of qualifier Cristina Bucsa.
And then she faced Alizé Cornet, the player who sent defending champion Emma Raducanu packing and never shortchanges on effort, desire or upset potential.
Collins beat her in two close sets as well. She hit 52 winners.
Cornet later told the French media that that Collins was a streamroller, that the quality of her ball was very hard to handle and that she played even better than in Australia, where they met in the quarterfinal.
Sabalenka Dominates the Head-to-Head
The two heavy hitters have met three times. And, as it happens, two of those three took place at the US Open.
Sabalenka won all of them. But she was playing a lot better at the US Open in 2018, and even last year, when she was at a career high, than she is now.
This Collins, playing “at home” and first up in a US Open night session, will be a tougher challenge given Sabalenka’s roller-coaster form.
Collins vs Sabalenka Match History
|2021||US Open (R32)||Outdoor Hard||6-3, 6-3||Sabalenka|
|2019||Wuhan (R32)||Outdoor Hard||6-1, 6-0||Sabalenka|
|2018||US Open (R128)||Outdoor Hard||6-0, 4-6, 6-4||Sabalenka|
Collins Primed for an Upset
Sabalenka should have been out to Kanepi in the second round. And sometimes that unexpected second life can bring a player a long way.
But if this week is any indication, Sabalenka’s serve was fine when she wasn’t pushed, not so fine when she was in trouble.
Collins should have the crowd, which hopefully will be at least as loud as the two players on court.
The American announced from the get-go that she had plans for this tournament. And she’s not about to let Sabalenka stop her.
Best Bet: Collins in Three (+400).