Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev Odds & Prediction – ATP Western & Southern Open Semifinals
By Stephanie Myles in Tennis
Updated: August 21, 2021 at 4:08 am EDTPublished:
- No. 1 seed Daniil Medvedev and No. 4 Andrey Rublev meet in the Western & Southern Open semis Saturday (August 20th)
- Medvedev has never lost to Rublev; in fact, he’s won all 12 sets they’ve played against each other
- Read on for our breakdown of the match, and see if Rublev has a shot at the upset this time around
Whatever it is about Daniil Medvedev’s game that gives Andrey Rublev fits, he has yet to find a way of narrowing it down and finding a solution.
And now, as they meet Saturday for a spot in the Western & Southern Open final, he has only a few more hours to try to come up with something.
Medvedev vs Rublev Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [1] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) | -1.5 (-155) | -370 | O 21.5 (-115) |
| [4] Andrey Rublev (RUS) | +1.5 (+115) | +285 | U 21.5 (-105) |
Odds as of Aug. 20 at DraftKings.
Medvedev Liquidates Carreño Busta in Olympic Rematch
We can now safely say that a big reason Medvedev lost to Pablo Carreño Busta at the Tokyo Olympics might well have been that he hadn’t recovered physically from his previous match, during which he suffered severe issues with the heat and humidity.
Because on a day that also was hot and humid in Cincinnati on Friday, he didn’t give the 29-year-old Spanish bronze medallist a chance to breathe.
It was over in 54 minutes. And as much as Carreño Busta focused on getting his first serve in (he ended up at 79 per cent), he didn’t have much choice. Carreño Busta won just one of 11 points when he missed it.
Daniil Medvedev is destroying everybody.
6-1, 6-1 over Pablo Carreno Busta in 54 minutes.
His 8 sets before that:
d. Grigor Dimitrov 6-3, 6-3
d. Mackenzie Macdonald 6-2, 6-2
d. Reilly Opelka 6-4, 6-3
d. John Isner 6-2, 6-2— The Tennis Podcast (@TennisPodcast) August 20, 2021
Medvedev broke Carreño Busta five times in 11 opportunities; Carreño Busta never even sniffed a break point on Medvedev’s serve.
The Russian served at a 76 per cent clip, and lost just two points on his own first serve. It was a comprehensive shellacking; he won 56 points, while Carreño Busta could manage only 30 (just six on return).
Rublev Ends Paire’s Renaissance Run
As for Rublev, he had significantly more trouble against Benoit Paire, the Frenchman who has continued to play every week even though his heart, visibly, hasn’t been in it during the pandemic.
But this week he won three consecutive matches for the first time since Jan. 2020.
Even against Rublev, Paire fought hard and turned what should have been a two-set win by the Russian into a hard-fought victory that went the distance.
It’s not necessarily going to give the Russian much confidence heading to a challenge he has never come close to meeting.
Medvedev vs Rublev Head-to-Head
| 25 (Feb. 11, 1996) | Age | 23 (Oct. 20, 1997) |
| Moscow, Russia | Birthplace | Moscow, Russia |
| 6-6 | Height | 6-2 |
| 12 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 8 |
| No. 2 (March 15, 2021) | Career High Ranking | No. 7 (April 19, 2021) |
| No. 2 | Current Ranking | No. 7 |
| $17,008,705 | Career Prize Money | $8,649,305 |
| 40-9 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 40-13 |
| 5 | Career Head to Head | 0 |
Medvedev has Owned Rublev
Rublev has played 12 career sets against Medvedev, who is 20 months older, in the pros.
The best he’s done was to take two of them to tiebreaks, last summer in the quarterfinals of the US Open.
That was arguably the best Rublev has served in their matchups, limiting Medvedev to one break point (which he converted). But Rublev didn’t earn a single one of his own.
How far they’ve come 🤗 #USOpen pic.twitter.com/v7PEAfxcOT
— ATP Tour (@atptour) September 9, 2020
In their four main draw matches, all on hard courts, Medvedev produced 51 aces and 14 double faults. Rublev hit just 25 aces, with seven double faults.
Medvedev broke Rublev 15 times in 32 opportunities; Rublev had just 12 break-point chances, and converted only five in 10 sets.
So the biggest difference is in the serve.
As well, while Medvedev can keep up fairly well with Rublev on the forehand, despite the younger Russian’s big power on that side, Medvedev wins the backhand battle in a rout.
Medvedev vs Rublev Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Australian Open (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 7-5, 6-3, 6-2 | Medvedev |
| 2020 | US Open (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 7-6 (6), 6-3, 7-6 (5) | Medvedev |
| 2019 | St. Petersburg (QF) | Indoor Hard | 6-4, 7-5 | Medvedev |
| 2019 | Cincinnati (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-2, 6-3 | Medvedev |
| 2016 | Budapest (Q) | Indoor Hard | 6-3, 6-2 | Medvedev |
“Ahhhh, my Good Friend Daniil, Again”
It’s just a great matchup for Medvedev, a poor one for Rublev.
Needless to say, Rublev is not looking forward to the clash.
In fact, he sounds like he’s already prepared for a “learning experience”.
Another one.
https://youtu.be/o4J6O1GYfyE?t=310
Rublev said it was going to be like a chess match, with a lot of long rallies.
But, given their previous history, it’ll be more like the kid playing against a Grandmaster.
Best Bet: Medvedev to Win in Two Sets (-150)
Sports Writer
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
