Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreño Busta Odds & Prediction – ATP Western & Southern Open Quarterfinals

• Friday’s Western & Southern Open quarterfinal between Medvedev and Carreño Busta is an Olympic rematch
• The match, set for 1 pm ET Friday, August 20, 2021
• Read on as we break down Friday’s matchup and predict who will come out on top

As much as the players have struggled in the heat and humidity at the Western & Southern Open this week, it’s a piece of cake compared to the sweltering conditions at the Olympics in Tokyo a few weeks ago.

Case in point is Daniil Medvedev, who succumbed to the conditions in Japan but has looked cool and collected so far in Cincinnati.

He will attempt to exact revenge on Pablo Carreño Busta, who defeated him in the quarterfinals there and went on to win the bronze medal.

Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreño Busta Odds

Odds as of Aug. 19 at DraftKings

Routine for Medvedev Over Dimitrov

Medvedev is on a roll on the North American hard courts.

Last week in Toronto, he didn’t drop a set against big servers John Isner in the semifinals and Reilly Opelka in the finals.

So far in Cincinnati, he has sailed through. Medvedev dropped just four games against wild card American Mackenzie McDonald in his opening match.

And against Grigor Dimitrov of Bulgaria Thursday, he lost just six games. Dimitrov had been struggling for months in the wake of contracting the coronavirus but has been rounding into form. Still, he was no match for Medvedev.

Dimitrov tried to neutralize Medvedev’s backhand with a slice and peppered that side. There were long rallies, but Medvedev was more than up to the task.

Carreño Busta Tiebreaks Hurkacz – Twice

Medvedev could well have met Hurkacz (who gave him fits in Toronto) again. But Carreño Busta squeaked out two tiebreaks to advance.

It actually wasn’t as close as that score would suggest. Had Carreño Busta been better at converting his opportunities against Hurkacz – he was 1-for-12 with his break point chances – it might well have been routine.

Carreño Busta lost just 7-of-28 points when he missed his first serve – and four of those were on double faults.

That’s unlikely to be repeatable against Medvedev.

Carreño Busta had a routine victory over lucky loser Dominik Koepfer of Germany in his opening match. So even if the win over Hurkacz took two hours, 11 minutes for two sets, he’ll be fresh physically. As well, Carreño Busta did not play in Toronto last week.

Both players had first-round byes.

Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreño Busta Head-to-Head

Battle of the Backhands

Medvedev has the edge on serve against Carreño Busta, although the Spaniard is sneaky-fast at times.

Carreño Busta might have the edge on movement but Medvedev – even at 6-6 – moves beautifully.

They both have supreme backhands, and that’s likely to be the battleground on Friday.

Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreño Busta Match History

Their match at the Olympics was played the day after Medvedev was overcome in a third-round win over Fabio Fognini.

He didn’t have much time to refill the tank – and so despite giving what he had, it wasn’t much.

'If I die, who takes responsibility?'

Daniil Medvedev snaps at the umpire as he struggles in 30c heat #Olympics #Tokyo2020https://t.co/GIDdjTMlsf pic.twitter.com/RkCjerzlzG

— Mail Sport (@MailSport) July 28, 2021

Carreño Busta went on to shock Novak Djokovic in the bronze-medal match – the bucket-list moment of his career as he came home with a medal.

Their head-to-head is surprisingly close, with four of their matches being played on a hard court.

But not all hard courts are made the same. Medvedev won their two encounters on “faster” hard courts indoors (Moscow and Paris). Carreño Busta won on the grittier, slower court at Indian Wells and the reportedly slow hard court in Tokyo.

The Cincinnati court would be considered a fast outdoor court. Advantage: Medvedev.

Even without that, the man is on a roll.

Best Bet:  Under 21.5 games (-105)