Djokovic vs Sinner Picks, Predictions & Best Odds for Jan 30

• #2 Jannik Sinner is a -1400 favorite over #4 Novak Djokovic in semifinal action on Friday at the Australian Open
• Sinner is the two-time defending champ and owns five straight victories over Djoker
• See my Djokovic vs Sinner picks and predictions below, plus the best odds for their Jan 30 matchup

How crazy is it that #2 Jannik Sinner is a -1400 favorite over #4 Novak Djokovic in the semifinal of the Australian Open? It’s especially wild given Djokovic’s pedigree, and the fact he has more career titles (10) than losses (8) all-time at this tournament. But, the odds speak to just how dominant Sinner has been down under and on hardcourts in general.

It seems unthinkable to fade the Italian given his form and tournament history, but I feel like market is being incredibly disrespectful to Djokovic, the GOAT of the men’s game. As a result, I’m looking for ways to invest in him for this matchup, without making the case that he can pull off an unlikely upset.

The Djokovic vs Sinner Australian Open semifinal matchup is set to get underway at 3:30 am ET Friday morning, with live coverage available on ESPN.

Here are my Djokovic vs Sinner picks and predictions, plus the best odds for the January 30th showdown.

Djokovic vs Sinner Picks & Predictions

• Djokovic +7.5 Games (-112 at FanDuel)

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I’m not here to tell you Djokovic can win and continue his quest for a 25th Grand Slam title, but what he can do is make this a competitive affair. The spread for the semifinal is Sinner -7.5 games, and that’s a number Djokovic can cover without even winning a set. In fact, he would have covered of any smaller spread versus Sinner last year at Roland Garros, when he fell 6-4, 7-5, 7-6 to the Italian.

There’s no denying that Djokovic is lucky to reach this stage. His Fourth Round opponent withdrew and he was down 2 sets to none in the quarterfinals, before Lorenzo Mussetti had to pull out due to injury. Djokovic knows he’s playing with house money, and he also feels incredibly disrespected that the tennis world is completely writing him off. Let’s not forget this is a man with 109 career Australian Open wins, and is in better shape than 95% of the field at age 38.

He should be fresh, after logging only two sets in the last five days, and he still possesses a world class game. Djoker has reached five straight Grand Slam semis, and has the tennis IQ to combat some of Sinner’s biggest strengths. Djokovic still has an elite serve, and can slice and volley his way around to keep this match competitive.

Djokovic vs Sinner Last 5 H2H Results

He’ll need all aspects of his game to be on point tonight, because Sinner is an absolute force on hardcourts. He enters play having won back-to-back Australian Opens, and 19 straight matches at this tournament.

Dating back to last year’s US Open, he’s 26-1 (all on hardcourt) with his lone defeat coming due to an injury withdrawal. Only two men have even taken a set off the Italian during that stretch, and it includes victories over all the game’s biggest names including World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz.

Sinner has also had his way against Djokovic in the past, winning five straight meetings. It should be noted however, that Djoker took a set off him in two of those five, and forced him to an extra game or a tiebreak in three of the other eight sets.

Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Odds

Odds as of January 29th. Claim the BetMGM promo code before betting on the 2026 Australian Open.

At the time of writing, the best Djokovic vs Sinners odds on Djoker +7.5 games is at FanDuel. They’re offering the line at -112 odds, while other books have the line priced in the -120 to -125 range. If you want to take a shot on Djokovic to pull off the upset, multiple sportsbooks are offering Djokovic at +810, while the total games market has settled on 32.5 at most shops.