Djokovic vs Alcaraz Picks, Predictions, Props & Betting Lines

• Novak Djokovic will try to maintain his perfect hardcourt record against Carlos Alcaraz on Friday
• Djokovic has won four of the last six overall against the 22-year Spaniard
• See my favorite Djokovic vs Alcaraz picks and predictions, plus the updated betting lines

It’s hard to think of an athlete who’s raged harder against the dying of the light than Novak Djokovic; the 38-year-old has earned half of his 24 grand-slam victories after age 30, which is more than all but three men have compiled in their careers.

On Friday afternoon, Djokovic will face 22-year-old Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals of the 2025 US Open (not before 3:00 pm on Arthur Ashe). Djokovic is a sizeable underdog to the world #2, but he’s also a perfect 3-0 against Alcaraz in competitive matches on hardcourts over their careers.

Djokovic vs Alcaraz Betting Lines

Djokovic opened as a +200 underdog and the line has only grown since then. As of Friday morning, Nole was as long as +300 at bet365 (25% implied win probability). The best Alcaraz moneyline at the moment is -360 at FanDuel, which amounts to a 78.26 implied win probability.

The game spread favors Alcaraz by 5.5. The total-games line is 37.5 at most sites, but a game lower at FanDuel, creating a very modest chance for bettors to middle the O/U.

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World #1 Jannik Sinner will face # Felix Auger-Aliassime in the second semifinal during the night session on Arthur Ashe (7:00 pm ET). Sinner is the -146 favorite in the odds to win the US Open heading into Friday’s semis. Alcaraz is a close +145 second-favorite, with Djokovic third at +1050 on average.

Djokovic Perfect Against Alcaraz on Hardcourts

To some extent, the changing of the guard has already happened in men’s tennis. Sinner and Alcaraz have won each of the last seven grand slams and will be heavy favorites for the foreseeable future barring injury.

But Djokovic hasn’t accepted Alcaraz as his better just yet. The Serbian is 5-3 lifetime against the world #2, which includes winning each of the last two and four of the last five and all three on hardcourts.

This will be their second meeting in a hardcourt grand slam this season; Djokovic took a four-setter in the 2025 Aussie Open quarterfinals back in January (4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4), which came five months-and-a-day after he conquered Alcaraz on clay for the gold medal at the Paris Olympics (7-6³, 7-6²).

Alcaraz’s last win over Djokovic was a three-set obliteration in the final of Wimbledon 2024 (6-2, 6-2, 7-6⁴).

Alcaraz vs Djokovic Hardcourt Results

Alcaraz did beat Djokovic on hardcourts during an “exhibition” tournament in Saudi Arabia in Dec. 2023 (4-6, 6-4, 6-4).

Djokovic vs Alcaraz Picks & Prediction

• Djokovic first set moneyline (+180) at DraftKings
• Over 36.5 games (-120) at FanDuel

Alcaraz have been on an absolute tear, not just at the US Open, but ever since losing the final of his home tournament in Barcelona back in April (7-6⁶, 6-2 to Holger Rune). Alcaraz is 35-1 since, the only loss coming to Sinner in the final at Wimbledon (4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4).

Alcaraz is currently riding an 11-match win streak, all on hardcourts, dropping just two sets in the process and none at the US Open. He didn’t face a single breakpoint against his serve during a 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 win over #21 Jiri Lehecka in the quarters.

But Djokovic looks as fit as he has in over a calendar year, and just recorded his 11th straight victory over world #4 Taylor Fritz in front of a very hostile crowd (6-3, 7-5, 3-6, 6-4). He can’t really maintain his highest level over the course of a full match anymore, but we still see glimpses of the GOAT.

In their eight career (competitive) matches, Djokovic has won the first set six times. Motivation is often an overrated factor in sports betting, but Djokovic is the greatest of all time because he can take his game to another level when he needs to.

Nole‘s only realistic path to victory starts with winning the first set. Coming back from a set down against arguably the fittest and most-athletic player on tour is a bridge too far.

If he can eke out the first set or one of the first two, over 36.5 holds a very strong chance of cashing. Books know this, which is why parlaying the two only generates +275 odds, at best (bet365 is the best option to parlay these two bets, at the moment).