Djokovic vs Fritz Odds, Picks & Predictions for US Open QF

• Novak Djokovic meets Taylor Fritz in the quarterfinals of the 2025 US Open on Tuesday
• Djokovic is a perfect 10-0 lifetime against the American
• See the Djokovic vs Fritz odds, picks, and predictions for Sep. 2

Top-ranked American Taylor Fritz, the world #4, will get another crack at current world #7 and all-time GOAT Novak Djokovic on Tuesday night in the 2025 US Open quarterfinals.

Djokovic has absolutely dominated the head-to-head over their careers, going a perfect 10-0 against the 27-year-old American, though it’s been nearly a year since their last meeting.

With Djokovic in the twilight of his career and Fritz on the rise, the odds are surprisingly narrow for a matchup that’s been so wholly one-sided over the years.

Djokovic vs Fritz Betting Odds

The Djokovic moneyline ranges from -190 to -180, with BetMGM currently offering the best price. The Fritz moneyline is as short as +140 and as long as +155 (at FanDuel). The default game spread is Djokovic -3.5 at most books, but ESPN Bet has it at -2.5 (-125). ESPN Bet is also the best over option in the total-games market, listing over 39.5 at -120. The best under option is 40.5 (-118) at FanDuel. Odds as of 10:59 am ET, Sep. 2nd. New users can claim the ESPN Bet promo and get a bonus to use on Fritz vs Djokovic.

Both players have dropped just two sets in their first four matches.

Djokovic (+1075 on average) and Fritz (+2025) are the third and fourth-favorites in the odds to win the US Open heading into the quarterfinals, though neither is seen as a real threat to the two contemporary titans of the men’s game, Carlos Alcaraz (-130) and Jannick Sinner (+148), who have won each of the last seven grand slams.

Djokovic’s last slam victory was the 2023 US Open.

Fritz vs Djokovic Head-to-Head History

Djokovic has won 23 of the 26 sets he and Fritz have played. Eight of the ten matches were straight-sets victories for the Serbian. The statistics are a little less lopsided when limiting the scope to just hardcourt matches; Djokovic is still 7-0, but only five of seven victories were in straight sets and his advantage in sets drops to 17-3.

A massive concern for Fritz heading into Tuesday’s match is his stunning 0-6 record in tiebreaks against Nole (0-5 on hardcourts). Djokovic has only lost his serve five times in four matches in Flushing, holding at an elite 92.4% rate (61 of 66 service games). Djokovic has only faced 13 breakpoints so far, saving eight (61.5%). Fritz isn’t apt to see many break chances.

Fritz has served even better, holding 67 of 71 games (94.4%) and facing just 14 breakpoints to date, but if he’s not breaking the Djokovic serve at a reasonable rate, he’s going to need to win tiebreaks.

The good news is that he’s 7-3 in his last ten breakers, and Djokovic has won just 45.5% of his tiebreaks over his last 42 matches, according to TennisAbstract.

Djokovic vs Fritz Prediction & Picks

• Over 39.5 games (-120) at ESPN Bet
• Djokovic moneyline (-180) at BetMGM

My favorite bet for Fritz vs Djokovic is over 39.5 games. Both have showed some inconsistencies during the tournament, dropping sets to far-inferior players, and both have the ability to completely dominate portions of the match. If either wins in straight sets, I’ll be stunned. I’ll be equally surprised if we don’t see at least one tiebreak, given the way both men have been serving on the medium-fast courts in Flushing.

When it comes to the moneyline, Djokovic’s head-to-head dominance is too much to ignore. Fritz has never been the most mentally-resolute nor physically-consistent player on tour. This season alone, he’s been upset by Marcos Giron (world #55), Daniel Altmaier (#56), Hubert Hurkacz (#68), and Terrence Atmane (#69), the lattermost of whom was outside the top-100 when they squared off in Cincinnati.

He’s certainly showing more mettle as he ages, but his 0-10 record against the greatest men’s player of all-time a massive mental hurdle to overcome, and I won’t believe he can do it until I actually see him do it.

I’m not breaking the bank to bet Djokovic at -180, but I wouldn’t hesitate to bet 1.80 units to win a full unit. I also wouldn’t fault anyone for taking a wait-and-see approach. If Fritz holds his first five or six service games, you’ll be able to get Djokovic at a slightly better live price. And if Fritz wins the first set, Djokovic will be plus-money to comeback and win.

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