Dusan Lajovic vs Pablo Carreño Busta Odds & Prediction – Hamburg European Open Quarterfinals

• Hamburg quarterfinalist Pablo Carreño Busta came in 13-5 on clay so far during the 2021 season
• Opponent Dusan Lajovic was just 2-7 on clay during a challenging season overall
• They’ve gone three sets each time they’ve played on clay; we break down the matchup and make a pick

Despite being a Spaniard, Pablo Carreño Busta’s best career results have actually come on hard courts.

He’s been to the US Open semifinals twice in the last four years.

But in his career, his clay winning percentage of 55.6% is just a smidgen behind his hard-court winning percentage of 55.8%

Dusan Lajovic vs Pablo Carreño Busta Odds

Odds as of July 15at DraftKings

Carreño Busta now is 14-5 on clay this season And he played every week in the spring with the exception of the final tuneup week before the French Open, winning the season opener in Marbella.

Lajovic a Clay-Court Aficionado

On the other side, 31-year-old Dusan Lajovic is far better known as a clay-court player.

He has played more matches on clay than hard courts in his career (which is fairly unusual at the upper end of the rankings). His one career ATP Tour title (Umag in 2019) and final (Monte Carlo Masters, also in 2019) both came on the red dirt.

But Lajovic is having a terrible year – period. He came into Hamburg 9-17.

On clay, he had first-round losses in Monte Carlo, Belgrade I, Munich, Madrid, Rome and the French Open.

He won two matches at the second Belgrade tournament in his hometown, the week before Paris. So that puts him at 2-7 overall.

Both Beat Qualifiers in the Second Round

The road to the quarterfinals was similar for Lajovic and Carreño Busta.

In the second round, both defeated qualifiers who had gone three sets in their first-round match, and had already played two matches just to get into the main draw.

Lajovic had much more trouble with Alex Molcan of Slovakia. It took him two minutes short of three hours to finally dispatch him, 6-4, 6-7 (2), 6-3.

In part, it was his own doing.

Lajovic had 17 break points against Molcan’s serve; he managed to convert just four.

Dusan Lajovic vs Pablo Carreño Busta Match History

Carreño Busta defeated fellow Spaniard Carlos Taberner 7-5, 6-3, in a more efficient one hour and 44 minutes.

He was far more opportunistic, breaking five times in seven opportunities. They played 135 points in all; Lajovic and Molcan played 244 total points.

As well, Carreño Busta, as the No. 2 seed, had a first-round bye.

So he comes in a lot more fresh.

Dusan Lajovic vs Pablo Carreño Busta Head-to-Head

Give Carreño Busta the Edge

The two haven’t played on clay in more than six years. And since then, both have risen to career-high rankings.

Carreño Busta is a lot closer to his right now than Lajovic is to the No. 23 spot he claimed in 2019.

Nole never in doubt.@DjokerNole fills the final spot in the semi-finals 4-6 6-2 6-3 6-4 over Carreno Busta.#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/8NiH5Emd41

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) October 7, 2020

He made the fourth round in Paris last month, and also last October. Both times, he lost to the eventual finalist.

But all of those earlier clay-court matches between the two went the distance.

With two wins under his belt this week – matching his total for the entirety of the spring clay-court season – Lajovic will likely give Carreño Busta a better test than he might have just a few weeks ago. A little confidence can work wonders. But it won’t be enough.

Lajovic Ineffective as Underdog

So far in 2021, Lajovic has won just one of eight matches in which he was the underdog.

Pablo Carreño Busta has posted a 13-2 record when he’s the favorite.

It’s hard to go against that.

Best Bet: Carreño Busta -4.5 games (+110)