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Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Taylor Fritz Odds & Prediction – Nitto ATP Finals

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Updated Nov 17, 2022 · 6:51 AM PST

Félix Auger-Aliassime
Sep 25, 2022; London, United Kingdom; Felix Auger-Aliassime (CAN) plays a shot against Novak Djokovic (SRB) in Lavers Cup singles. Mandatory Credit: Peter van den Berg-USA TODAY Sports
  • The winner of Thursday’s match between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Taylor Fritz will make the semifinals
  • They’ve met just once before, with the American prevailing in three sets
  • Auger-Aliassime is the favorite in this ATP Finals pool match; read on for analysis and predictions of the Auger-Aliassime vs Fritz odds

Félix Auger-Aliassime and Taylor Fritz had their first career meeting on the second day of 2022, in the first match of the season for both of them. On Thursday (3 pm ET) in Turin, they’ll meet for the second time on what will be the last day of the season – for the loser. Who’s the best bet in today’s Auger-Aliassime vs Fritz picks?

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Taylor Fritz Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[5] Félix Auger-Aliassime (CAN) -2.5 (+105) -180 O 23.5 (-106)
[8] Taylor Fritz (USA) +2.5 (-130) +148 U 23.5 (-118)

Odds as of Nov. 17 at Barstool Sportsbook

Both 1-1 in their pool at the ATP Finals, in the first appearance at the year-end championships for both of them, they’ll play a winner-take-all to join Casper Ruud in the semifinals out of the Green group. Auger-Aliassime is the -180 favorite in the odds above.

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Both Have Beaten Nadal this Week

Admittedly, the year-end finals have never been good to Rafael Nadal, who has never won the event, doesn’t play his best in indoor hard courts and generally arrives with the body battered and bruised.

But at 36, there certainly was the feeling that it could be his last appearance. He was shy of matches and form coming in, but made the date anyway.

And with all credit to both Fritz, who defeated him Sunday and Auger-Aliassime, who beat him on Tuesday – both in straight sets  – he gave them some help.

YouTube video

It was the first career win over Nadal for the Canadian, and the second for Fritz (who beat him in the final of Indian Wells back in March).

Both players were beaten by Casper Ruud in their pool matches, with Fritz battling to 8-6 in the third-set tiebreak before falling.

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Taylor Fritz Head-to-Head

Felix Auger-Aliassime
Taylor Fritz
22 (Aug. 8, 2000) Age 25 (Oct. 28, 1997)
Montreal, Canada Birthplace Rancho Santa Fe, Calif.
6-4 Height 6-5
4 Career ATP Singles Titles 4
No. 6 (Nov. 7, 2022) Career-Best Ranking No. 8 (Oct. 10, 2022)
No. 6 Current Ranking No. 9
$8,759,045 Career Prize Money $8,975,541
57-26 2022 Won/Loss Record 44-20
0 Head-to-Head Wins 1

Can-Am Rivalry Has Just Begun

At 22 and 25, it’s a little surprising that Auger-Aliassime and Fritz have only met once before.

You know that by the time they’re done this will be a big number.

But that first meeting was a top-quality one, even if Auger-Aliassime came up short.

And as it happens, it was also a round-robin format.

YouTube video

It was their first group match of the ATP Cup in January, and the Americans swept the Canadians 3-0 with Fritz and Isner also beating Auger-Aliassime and Denis Shapovalov in doubles.

Canada ended up winning the whole event in the end – a win that kickstarted Auger-Aliassime’s ascent in 2022.

Auger-Aliassime vs Fritz Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2022 ATP Cup (RR) Outdoor Hard 6-7 (6), 6-4, 6-4 Fritz

Similar Strengths for Fritz and Auger-Aliassime

Auger-Aliassime’s big strengths are his serve and his forehand.

That’s also true for Fritz; it’s a North American thing, really.

Fritz serves even harder. Auger-Aliassime can be bolder on second serve; it can also let him down.

In their two matches against the same opponents, Auger-Aliassime (who played one fewer set) has 29 aces and five double faults; Fritz has 23 aces and just one double fault.

Auger-Aliassime is 2-for-4 on break points converted (he had none against Ruud); Fritz is 3-for-13. Their numbers are similar on break points saved, both at 80 percent or better.

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Taylor Fritz Prediction

So many elements of this matchup are dead even that it’s surprising the odds aren’t closer.

Their earlier matches this week went similarly; both have the same limited experience in this format and at this big event. Their strengths are similar.

Fritz likes the quicker court because in his view, it makes his (weaker) backhand a better shot where a slower court favors his forehand, giving him more time to set it up. For Auger-Aliassime, it might well be the opposite; he takes his forehand a little earlier anyway.

But the American is less prone to bad patches, which is why the longest odds – for Fritz to win in three sets – are the most attractive ones.

There’s also a good chance there will be at least one tiebreak (-143).

Best Bet: Fritz in Three Sets  (+400)

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