Fritz vs Musetti Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds (Jan 25)

• Taylor Fritz is a -139 moneyline favorite over Lorenzo Musetti in fourth-round action at the Australian Open
• The two have split their six career head-to-head matches
• See my Fritz vs Musetti picks and predictions below, plus the latest betting odds matchup

Fans will be treated to the second top-ten showdown on the men’s side of the Australian Open tonight as #9 Taylor Fritz takes on #5 Lorenzo Musetti. Online sportsbooks are siding with the American in what’s expected to be an extremely competitive match, which I believe opens up value on the higher-ranked Italian.

The action is set to get underway at 10:00 pm ET, with live coverage available on ESPN2.

Here are my Fritz vs Musetti picks and predictions, plus the latest betting odds for their Jan 25th matchup.

Fritz vs Musetti Picks and Predictions

• Lorenzo Musetti moneyline (+114 at DraftKings)
• Over 40.5 Games (-115 at DraftKings)

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I’m taking Musetti on the moneyline tonight, expecting him to reach the quarterfinal stage of a Grand Slam for the third time in his last four Majors. The Italian also accomplished the feat at last year’s US Open and Roland Garros, making it all the way to the final four in Paris.

Fritz may have a big edge in the serving department, but Musetti is a tenacious defender who is extremely frustrating to play against. The Italian chases down virtually every ball, and deploys a variety of shot types and speeds to neutralize a big hitter like Fritz.

Statistically, Musetti is a stronger returner, and grades out higher from the wings on both his forehand and backhand. He has a bunch of different ways to attack the American, while Fritz relies perhaps a little too heavily on his power.

Also working against the American is a nagging knee injury. He’s reportedly dealing with tendinitis, and while it wasn’t an issue earlier in the tournament, he told reporters it worsened significantly in last match versus Stan Wawrinka.

That’s a problem against Musetti, who will fight tooth and nail for every point. He’s going to extend rallies and get Fritz moving side to side, which will only make his knee issue feel worse. Another reason to be pessimistic about Fritz is the surge in unforced errors from his last match. The American posted 42 mistakes against Wawrinka in only four sets. Musetti won’t beat himself, and in a match projected to go the distance, those loose points from Frtiz can be the difference between a victory and a defeat.

Fritz vs Musetti Last 5 H2H Results

The head-to-head rivalry between these two longshots in the Australian Open odds has been split down the middle. Both men have won three matches each, with Fritz taking their only two hardcourt affairs. The faster hardcourt certainly favors the America, but his injury concern and Musetti’s improved play on the surface give me confidence to back the Italian.

Musetti won a career high 26 hardcourt matches in 2025, helping him reach his career high #5 ranking. He made two hardcourt finals last year, and was runner-up in his only hardcourt event of this season prior to the Aussie Open.

Taylor Fritz vs Lorenzo Musetti Odds

Odds as of January 25th. Get in on the action betting the Australian Open with the DraftKings promo code.

The best place to bet Musetti to pull off the upset right now is over at DraftKings, who are offering +114 odds for him to advance. Musetti is also catching 1.5 games on the spread, while the total is listed at 40.5 games.

The ladder market is another I’d consider investing in, as I believe we’re looking at potential five-setter tonight. Even if it only goes four sets, they can easily exceed 40.5 games, as only three players on Tour last year went to a tiebreak more often than Fritz.

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