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As the Odds-On Favorite, Is Karolina Pliskova Easy Money to Win Wimbledon Women’s Singles Quarter 3?

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Tennis

Updated Mar 31, 2020 · 2:08 PM PDT

Karolina Pliskova
Karolina Pliskova is a -125 favorite to win Quarter 3. Photo By Carine06 (flickr) [CC License].
  • Karolina Pliskova is favored to win Quarter 3 at Wimbledon
  • Petra Martic is 4-1 in her career against Pliskova, including 2-0 on grass
  • Elina Svitolina has won three straight matches with Pliskova

Quarter 3 on the women’s side of the Wimbledon draw looks like it’s no. 3 Karolina Pliskova’s to lose. She’s mostly cruised throughout the tournament so far, winning her first two matches in straight sets. Is she a good bet at -125 or is there value elsewhere in this particular quarter?

2019 Wimbledon Quarter 3 Odds

Player Wimbledon Quarter 3 Odds
Karolina Pliskova -125
Petra Martic +600
Maria Sakkari +700
Elina Svitolina +900
Anett Kontaveit +1000
Su-Wei Hsieh +1200
Danielle Collins +1400
Karolina Muchova +1400

*Odds taken 07/04/19

Pliskova Has Rolled So Far

The no. 3 seed has faced little resistance so far through her first two matches. She took care of Zhu Lin in her opening match in straight sets, although she needed a tiebreaker in the second set. Then she lost only four games en route to her win over Monica Puig.

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Pliskova’s path going forward seems fairly straightforward as her toughest opponent could be no. 8 Elina Svitolina. Outside of her, there’s no one that’s higher than the no. 20 seed Anett Kontaveit. Oddly enough, the oddsmakers actually have no. 24 Petra Martic as the player that’s expected to be her biggest challenger.

Martic Has Owned Pliskova

If you’re surprised to see the no. 24 seed ahead of Svitolina and Kontaveit in terms of the odds, it’s because she’s had her way with Pliskova. In their five career matches, Martic has won four of them. Each of those four wins came in straight sets. One of those wins was in the Round of 32 at the French Open this year.

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What’s more important to note is that Martic is 2-0 against her on grass (and 2-0 on clay) but the one loss came on the hard courts. Wimbledon is on grass, so that’s why Martic is viewed as her toughest competitor.

One concern for Martic is that she’s needed three sets to get by in each of her first two matches.

One concern for Martic is that she’s needed three sets to get by in each of her first two matches. Both were against unseeded players and both times, she had to dig herself out of an 0-1 set hole. She’ll have to start better when, and if, she plays Pliskova.

Svitolina, Kontaveit Have Losing Records Versus Pliskova

One of the reasons why the two seeds higher than Martic aren’t given the same odds is because they haven’t fared well against the no. 3 seed.

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While Kontaveit has never faced Pliskova on grass, she’s lost the only two matches they’ve played against each other. The matches were in 2018 and 2019. As for Svitolina, she’s 3-5 in her career against Pliskova. However, they too have never faced off on grass. It’s worth noting Svitolina has won three straight matches after losing the first five meetings.

What’s the Best Bet?

Women’s tennis is highly unpredictable these days, so laying juice with any one player does not excite me. Add in the fact that Pliskova has only once been to the fourth round at Wimbledon – last year – and history isn’t exactly on her side. For her career, she’s just 10-7 at the tournament.

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Everyone else on this board is also just a dart throw. I would take a shot with Svitolina as she’s paying +900 or Martic at +600. History and the oddsmakers know she’ll have a good shot of winning if these two meet up in this quarter.

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