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Karolina Pliskova vs Jelena Ostapenko Odds & Prediction – WTA Italian Open Quarterfinals

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Tennis

May 13, 2021 · 5:33 PM PDT

Karolina Pliskova vs Jelena Ostapenko
Karolina Pliskova serves against Tamara Korpatsch in the first round of the women's Porsche tennis tournament in Stuttgart, Germany, Wednesday, April 21, 2021. (Thomas Kienzle/Pool Photo via AP)
  • Karolina Pliskova is the -167 favorite to defeat Jelena Ostapeno in their WTA Italian Open quarterfinal on Friday, May 14th
  • Ostapenko is given +135 underdog odds
  • World #9 Pliskova has won four of seven previous meetings between the two players

Jelena Ostapenko is through to the quarterfinals of a WTA event for the first time this season. It’s quarterfinal #3 for Karolina Pliskova, but she’s still seeking to take the next step.

As these two players clash Friday in the quarterfinals of the WTA Italian Open, will it be Ostapenko or Pliskova who moves to a new level of competition in 2021?

Oddsmakers have set that bar and believe that it will be Pliskova who clears it. The Czech player is the -167 favorite to defeat Latvia’s Ostapenko.

This will be the eighth meeting between the two. World #9 Pliskova holds a slight 4-3 advantage over world #49 Ostapenko in previous head-to-head showdowns.

Karolina Pliskova vsย Jelena Ostapenko Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Total at DraftKings
Karolina Pliskova -167 -2.5 (-115) O 19.5 (-210)
Jelena Ostapenko +135 +2.5 (-110) U 19.5 (+160)

Odds as of May 13th

Friday’s match is slated for a 6:00 am ET start. The Tennis Channel will carry broadcast coverage.

Pliskova Powers Onward

Rome tends to bring out the best in Pliskova and that’s again been the case this year. She’s reached the final of the last two Italian Opens. Pliskova won the event in 2019 and lost last year’s final to Simona Halep when Pliskova was forced to retire due to injury.

Through two rounds of play, ninth-seeded Pliskova has yet to drop a set in Rome. Her closest call came in the opening set of her round of 16 match against Russian qualifier Vera Zvonerova.

Pliskova was a 7-5 winner of that set en route to a 7-5, 6-3 verdict over former world #2 Zvonereva, a two-time Rome semifinalist. In the round of 32, Pliskova dispatched Latvia’s Anastasija Sevastova 6-2, 6-3.

It’s been a much steadier Pliskova in Rome than during her first two clay-court events of 2021. She reached the quarterfinals at Stuttgart before falling to world #1 Ashleigh Barty. However, all three of Pliskova’s matches there were three-set affairs.

In Madrid, following a three-set triumph over American Cori Gauff, Pliskova exited 0-6, 5-7 in the round of 32 against Russia’s Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

Ostapenko Rallies

Down a set to Angelique Kerber in her round of 16 match, Ostapenko roared back on two occasions for a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 victory. Ostapenko’s service was broken four times in the first game of the match.

She was also trailing 3-1 in the third set before mounting a comeback within her comeback. Ostapenko saved six break points in the sixth game of the third set to knot the count at 3-3.

The Latvian smashed an impressive total of 51 winners over the course of the two-hour, 11-minute match. However, she was also responsible for 65 unforced errors. Former French Open champion Ostapenko is seeking to reach the semifinals of a WTA event for the first time since her win at the BGL BNP Paribas Luxembourg Open in 2019.

Traditionally, Ostapenko hasn’t fared well in the Italian Open. She was bounced in the first round last year and in 2019 without winning a set. In 2018, Ostapenko also reached the quarterfinals here. She lost in three sets to Maria Sharapova.

Ostapenko was a second-round victim in 2017 and made a third-round exit in 2016.

Service With a Smile

A power serve game is literally the ace up Pliskova’s sleeve. She holds the WTA record for aces in a match, hitting 31 of them in the second round of the 2106 Australian Open.

This season, the Czech has seved 130 aces, compared to 49 by Ostapenko. In two matches at Rome, Pliskova holds an 8-1 advantage in aces over her opposition.

Karolina Pliskova vs Jelena Ostapenko Stats

Karolina Pliskova
Jelena Ostapenko
9 WTA Ranking 49
16 WTA Titles 3
29 WTA Final Appearances 7
12-8 W-L (2021) 13-8
67.3 Service Games Won 64.0
31.5 Return Games Won 38.3
39.4 Break Points Saved 53.5
130 Aces 49

There is very recent history in this matchup. Pliskova edged Ostapenko 6-7(7), 6-4, 6-3 on the clay courts in the round of 16 at Stuttgart. The Czech player served 21 aces and won 70% of her first-service points in that match.

Last year, Ostapenko was the 6-4, 6-2 straight-set winner at Roland Garros in the French Open round of 16. Pliskova owns a 2-1 lead in the series in matches played on clay.

Kerber committed 13 double faults in her loss to Ostapenko. Pliskova has double-faulted just six times through two matches.

Pick: Karolina Pliskova (-167), Pliskova 2-1 (+320)

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