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Madison Keys vs Petra Kvitova Odds & Prediction – Western & Southern Open Semifinals

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Aug 19, 2022 · 7:48 PM PDT

Madison Keys (top) shakes hands with Petra Kvitova (bottom).
Aug 16, 2021; Mason, OH, USA; Madison Keys (top) shakes hands with Petra Kvitova (bottom) after their match during the Western and Southern Open tennis tournament at Lindner Family Tennis Center. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
  • Madison Keys and Petra Kvitova, both unseeded, have reached the Western & Southern Open semifinals
  • It’s the second Cincy semi for Keys, the 2018 champion, and the third for Kvitova
  • The odds are basically dead even; we break down the matchup and suggest best bet value

The fast courts and light tennis balls that have been the bane of many of the players in Cincinnati are just fine by Madison Keys and Petra Kvitova.

Both unseeded, the two have reached the Western & Southern Open semifinals, and will face each other for the ninth time in their careers.

Keys vs Kvitova Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Madison Keys (USA) +1.5 (-148) -117 O 21.5 (-120)
Petra Kvitova (CZE) -1.5 (+120) -103 U 21.5 (-103)

Odds as of Aug. 19 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Western & Southern Open

Both have made impressive runs through the draw, although Kvitova had to save match points in her opening match against Jil Teichmann before getting on that roll.

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Keys Steamrolls Wimbledon Champion

As good as Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina had looked in her earlier rounds, she was but a shadow of her earlier self when she matched up with Keys Thursday in the quarterfinals.

That huge first serve hit the mark just 41.5% of the time.

And Rybakina won less than a third of her second-serve points.

Keys created 13 break-point opportunities, and converted five of them. It was a shocking mismatch.

The American also was on fire, perhaps partly due to the lack of pushback she was getting.


Keys vs Kvitova Head-to-Head

Madison Keys
Petra Kvitova
27 *(Feb. 17, 1995) Age 32 (March 8, 1990)
Rock Island, Ill. Birthplace Bilovec, Czech Republic
5-10 Height 6-0
6 Career WTA Singles Titles 29
Oct. 10, 2016) No. 2 (Oct. 31, 2011)
No. 24 Current Ranking No. 28
$14,580,797 Career Prize Money $34,206,006
24-13 2022 Won/Loss Record 21-15
0 Head-to-Head Wins 0

A Long, Even Head-to-Head

Keys, 27 and Kvitova, 32, have been at this tennis gig for a while.

Their first-ever meeting took place in Tokyo in 2013, when Keys was just 18.

They’ve gone back and forth over the years with half their matches going the distance, and all but that first one pretty competitive. Only one took place on clay, and Keys won it.

And they have, most often, worn the same outfit (although that won’t happen Saturday).

The two met in Cincinnati exactly a year ago, but in the first round.

Kvitova was ranked No. 11 and seeded the same; Keys was at No. 42 back then. It was part of a mediocre 1-5 swing through the North American hard courts in the summer and fall for the American.

She’s playing much better right now.

Keys vs Kvitova Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2021 Cincinnati Masters (R64) Outdoor Hard 7-5, 6-4 Kvitova
2020 Brisbane (SF) Outdoor Hard 3-6, 6-2, 6-3 Keys
2016 Beijing (SF) Outdoor Hard 6-3, 6-7 (2), 7-6 (5) Keys
2016 Olympics Outdoor Hard 7-5, 2-6, 6-2 Kvitova
2016 Rome (R32) Outdoor Clay 6-3, 6-4 Keys
2015 New Haven Outdoor Hard 4-6, 6-1, 6-2 Kvitova
2015 Australian Open R32) Outdoor Hard 6-4, 7-5 Keys
2013 Tokyo (R16) Outdoor Hard 6-2, 6-2 Kvitova

Keys vs Kvitova Pick

Kvitova’s quarterfinal win over qualifier Ajla Tomljanovic went more according to form, with the Aussie already putting five matches behind her this week and sort of at the end of her capacity.

The Czech knows that serve will be a big part of her showdown with Keys.

And she knows who she (thinks) has more weapons with that stroke.


If both these players, who by the nature of their game styles can be streaky, are on, the firepower on the stadium court Friday should be deafening.

It will be a matter of who is defending best — when they have no choice but to do that — who is returning better and who is hitting the lines more often.

It is an extremely difficult match to call a winner on, as evidenced by the nearly-even odds.

And even if it feels as though it should go the distance, as half their previous eight tussles have, it is more likely to be one-sided as one of the two has an outstanding day and the other can’t keep up. And starts to make errors.

That’s why we think it won’t go three sets. That might be counterintuitive, but it feels more likely than both having a great day, on the same day.

But we do think there will be at least one tiebreak (+230)

Best Bet: Under 2.5 Sets (-165)

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