Korda vs Landaluce Expert Picks & Predictions (March 24)

Published: March 24, 2026 at 8:57 am EDT

Sebastian Korda faces Martin Landaluce in the Round of 16 of the Miami Open. — Mar 22, 2026; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Sebastian Korda (USA) celebrates after his match against Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) (not pictured) on day six of the 2026 Miami Open at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Encore, anyone?

American favorite Sebastian Korda, fresh off upsetting No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz on Sunday, takes on Spanish underdog Martin Landuluce today in the Miami Open. Their Round of 16 match is set to begin at 11 am.

Korda, who grew up training across the state at IMG Academy, enters riding the momentum of a career-defining upset over Alcaraz, positioning him as a heavy favorite today on home soil. However, sharp bettors cannot ignore the surging qualifier from Spain. Landaluce has strung together a massive breakthrough run in Florida, dispatching top-20 seeds Luciano Darderi and Karen Khachanov in his previous two rounds.

Korda is trying to reach the Miami Open quarterfinals for the third time. This is just Landaluce’s second appearance in Miami. The two have never played.

Will Korda avoid a letdown spot to cash tickets for the chalk bettors, or does Landaluce possess the return-game consistency to reward underdog backers?

Let’s break down their Round of 16 match and offer the best bets.

Korda vs Landaluce Miami Open Odds

Player	Moneyline	Spread	Total
Sebastian Korda	-376	-3.5 (+110)	Over 22.5 (-128)
Martin Landaluce	+284	+3.5 (-150)	Under 22.5 (-108)

Korda commands a steep -376 moneyline price, translating to a vig-free implied win probability of 75.2%, while the underdog Landaluce sits at +284, holding a 24.8% vig-free probability. Early sharp action has slightly shortened Korda from his open, indicating market respect for his recent Delray Beach title and his high-profile Alcaraz upset. However, the spread market paints a more nuanced picture for bettors. Bookmakers have heavily juiced Landaluce at -150 to cover the game spread, recognizing his blistering form after five consecutive victories. The total games market leans aggressively toward the Over at -128, projecting that the 20-year-old Spaniard will hold serve frequently enough to extend sets and prevent a lopsided American sweep.

Sebastian Korda vs Martin Landaluce Picks

Korda to Win ($0.78 per contract at Kalshi)

This is another example in which the prediction site Kalshi provides more value than the sportsbooks.

A Korda to win contract is trading for $0.78, which equates to -355 odds — which are slightly better than the -376 at other books.

While the +335 Kalshi payout on an underdog story is tempting, the sheer statistical disparity between these two makes Korda the mathematically optimal pick to advance. The American is seeded No. 32 in Miami and hot. Korda’s recent 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 victory over Alcaraz spoke volumes about his poise, when he rebounded in the third set after serving for the match in the second.

After dropping five consecutive games spanning the second and third sets, he adjusted his tactical approach, opting to play high-percentage tennis rather than over-hitting. This analytical mindset, fostered by his recent coaching addition of Ryan Harrison, severely limits the potential for an unforced-error-riddled letdown spot. Back the favorite on the moneyline, trusting the 75.2% vig-free probability and the 115-spot rankings gap to hold true.

Bettors who haven’t registered at Kalshi yet can click the graphic below to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code. (If you’re already using Kalshi, try our SBD’s Novig promo code.)

Prediction Markets

Korda vs Landaluce

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Sebastian Korda

77%

Martin Landaluce

23%

Predict

Martin Landaluce to Cover the +3.5 Spread (-150 at DraftKings)

Even though Korda is the rightful favorite to win the match outright, Landaluce possesses the underlying metrics and baseline momentum to keep the game margins incredibly tight ATS. The 20-year-old Spanish challenger is a flawless 5-0 in this tournament, grinding through the qualifiers to score consecutive upset victories over World No. 18 Darderi and No. 14 Khachanov. Both of those wins involved tiebreakers. We expect one of these sets to get extended as well.

This clean-slate dynamic inherently favors the underdog’s service games early in the first set. Landaluce’s aggressive break-point conversion rate throughout his Miami run suggests he will manufacture enough breaks to safely cover the juiced +3.5 spread (-150).

Over 22.5 Total Games (-128 at DraftKings)

Taking the Over perfectly correlates with our projection of Landaluce covering the spread in a match that could see multiple tiebreakers. First-time matchups on hard courts naturally require a tactical feeling-out process. Landaluce has already proven his recent baseline competency by climbing into the Top 100 conversation, and his heavy topspin will force Korda into extended rallies.

The data from Korda’s recent matches supports a lengthy affair. The American showed a propensity to play deep into deciding sets, highlighted by his turbulent three-set thriller against Alcaraz where he surrendered a 5-4 lead in the second set. Landaluce, meanwhile, navigated multiple tiebreaks and deep deciding games to upset Khachanov. Both competitors are equipped to trade service holds deep into the sets as they adjust to one another’s tendencies, making the -128 Over the most mathematically sound total games prediction for this Round of 16 showdown.

Chris Wright

A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Chris Wright is an Evergreen and AI editor for Saturday Down South, Saturday Tradition, Crossing Broad, Sports Betting Dime and ESNY.

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