Mai Hontama vs Garbine Muguruza Odds & Prediction – Chicago Fall Tennis Classic Quarterfinals

• Qualifier Mai Hontama is the shock of the tournament as she’s into the Chicago Fall Classic quarterfinals
• No. 200 in the rankings coming in, Hontama is a huge underdog against No. 2 seed Garbiñe Muguruza
• Read on to see our breakdown of the match, and where there might be some value

Who is Mai Hontama? Frankly, even the WTA Tour people don’t really know.

But in her first main draw at a WTA Tour-level event, the 22-year-old qualifier from Japan is into the quarterfinals.

She will face two-time Grand Slam champion Garbiñe Muguruza, who had best beware.

Mai Hontama vs Garbine Muguruza Odds

Odds as of Sept. 30 at DraftKings

The Unknown Mai Hontama

It’s not that often that a player ranked No. 200 in the world, at age 22, is only now making her WTA main-draw debut.

But such is the road of the most obscure Hontama, who won two matches in qualifying to get into the Chicago Fall Classic main draw.

She then lost just three games against a very erratic former No. 4, Caroline Garcia of France, to post her first career win.

Even the WTA Tour’s website as her under a cloak of anonymity.

Then, she caught a break as No. 11 seed Anett Kontaveit, wrung out physically after winning the 500-level tournament in Ostrava the previous week before traveling back to the US, withdrew from the tournament after her first-round victory over American Madison Brengle.

Then, on Thursday, another shocker: Hontama upset American Shelby Rogers 6-4, 6-7 (1), 6-1 in a match that lasted more than 2 1/2 hours.

Rogers had just upset 2019 US Open champion Bianca Andreescu in the previous round.

She took the court against Rogers looking more like a junior than a 22-year-old, with a big wrap on her left quad and taping on both ankles and shins. And yet, she came out the winner.

Hontama was ranked No. 330 at the end of 2020. She is 40-12 on the season at various levels and has won two titles in $25,000 tournaments.

A few months ago, she was on a back court in a tiny event in Portugal, picking up her own tennis balls.

Friday, she faces a two-time Grand Slam champion and a top-10 player.

Mai Hontama vs Garbiñe Muguruza Head-to-Head

Muguruza Fresh, but Untested

Meanwhile, the world No. 9 Muguruza has hardly played since the US Open.

The Chicago Fall Classic is her first tournament since then. She had a bye in the first round and a routine victory over American Ann Li in her opener.

And on Thursday, when she was due to play a fellow veteran Grand Slam champion in Victoria Azarenka (both have been coached by Sam Sumyk in their careers, among other commonalities), the Belarussian withdrew before the match.

‘Unprofessional’: Drama erupts at US Open Barbora Krejcikova and Garbine Muguruza shared a tense exchange at the net after their US Open battle, with the Czech called out for being “so unprofessional”. https://t.co/E7Jga9NiyR

— of today (@_oftoday_) September 6, 2021

So the Spaniard doesn’t have much tennis in her since that contentious loss to Barbora Krejcikova in the fourth round of the US Open.

That one was dramatic.

Playing an Unknown

Watching Hontama play against Rogers, it’s hard to fathom why it’s taken so long for her to break at any appreciable level, after a junior career that got her to an ITF ranking of No. 15, mostly on the strength of great success in Asia.

She is very much in the mode of other female Japanese players, hitting the ball flat and taking it early. She doesn’t hit it very hard but has displayed great consistency. And great defense.

Muguruza is at a different level than Garcia or Rogers. Still, there are extra nerves in the unknown. And if Muguruza is the least bit shaky to start, an opponent with little to lose might put serious pressure on her.

Given the unfamiliarity factor, taking Hontama at +270 to sneak out the first set isn’t so far out in left field. Even if it would be the biggest shock of the week if she pulled out the match.

Best Bet: Over 19.5 games (-105)