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Daniil Medvedev vs Hubert Hurkacz Odds & Prediction – ATP National Bank Open Quarterfinals

Dave F.

by Dave F. in Tennis

Aug 13, 2021 · 6:27 AM PDT

Daniil Medvedev vs Hubert Hurkacz
Poland's Hubert Huekacz plays a return during the men's singles fourth round match against Russia's Daniil Medvedev on day eight of the Wimbledon Tennis Championships in London, Tuesday, July 6, 2021. (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)
  • Top-seeded Daniil Medvedev faces Hubert Hurkacz in Friday’s ATP National Bank Open Quarterfinals
  • Medvedev is seeking his third singles title of 2021
  • Hurkacz beat Medvedev in their only head-to-head matchup. Does he offer betting value?

Daniil Medvedev is ranked number two in the world. The 25-year-old Russian has never won a major. He reached the final of the US Open in 2019, and last year was taken out by eventual champion Dominic Thiem in the semifinals. Things get going in New York in three weeks. Medvedev is trying to gain momentum before arriving in the Big Apple.

Medvedev will battle Hubert Hurkacz in Friday’s ATP National Bank Open Quarterfinals. Hurkacz won the only time he faced Medvedev and arguably is playing just as well.

Let’s look closely at the quarterfinal match-up and look through some of the betting options.

Daniil Medvedev vs Hubert Hurkacz Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Daniil Medvedev -3.5 games (-170) -425 Over 22.5 games (+110)
Hubert Hurkacz +3.5 games (+125) +310 Under 22.5 games (-150)

All odds as of August 13 at DraftKings

Medvedev vs Hurkacz History

The only meeting between these players came at Wimbledon this year.

Medvedev won the first set 6-2 and lost a second set in a tiebreak. Medvedev won the third set 6-3, and then Hurkacz reversed that score in the fourth to force a final set. Medvedev dropped the fifth set 3-6.

Medvedev vs Hurkacz Head-to-Head Stats

2 ATP Ranking 13
0-1 Head-to-Head 1-0
25 Age 24
29-8 2021 record 20-12
11 Career Singles Titles 3
0 Grand Slam Titles 0

Is Medvedev Good or Great?

Medvedev is winning far more than he is losing, but you wouldn’t call his play right now dominating.

In the National Bank Open, he received a first-round bye, lost the first set to Alexander Bublik before rallying to win in three sets, and yesterday made pretty easy work of James Duckworth.

He beat Bublik, Sumit Nagal, and Fabio Fognini at the Olympics before falling in the quarters to Pablo Carreno Busta. Two of the three wins went to three sets.

Going back to Wimbledon, Medvedev reached the fourth round before falling to Hurkacz. That said, he played 17 sets in the tournament. Not bad, but far from commanding.

Medvedev won on grass at the Mallorca Championships in June. He took the Open 13 Provence indoors in March. You could argue his greatest highlight this year is falling to Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open Final.

Medvedev is a pretty well-rounded player. His best work is usually on hard courts, but he has proven a tough customer on clay and grass at times too.

Hurkacz Struggles to Play Consistently

When Hurkacz is going good, like beating Medvedev and then taking out Roger Federer at Wimbledon, he is among the best players in the world. However, ten times in 2021 he has lost in the first or second round of tournaments.

In Toronto, Hurkacz earned a first-round bye and then got a walkover victory to advance to yesterday’s third round. He needed three sets to get by Nikoloz Basilashvili. The match didn’t end until after 11 pm EST.

At the Olympics, he beat Luke Saville in the first round and fell to Liam Broady in the second.

Matteo Berrettini beat Hurkacz in the semifinals at Wimbledon.

Hurkacz has won three ATP tournaments, all on hard courts in America. In 2019 he took the Winston-Salem Open. This year he won in Delray Beach and Miami. His overall record is a little bit deceiving since he is pretty good on hard courts, but mediocre on all other surfaces.

How to Bet the Quarterfinal

There is little question that overall Medvedev is the better player. His resume is stronger and in the long-term he is the superior prospect. On Thursday he played in an earlier time slot and had an easier time with his match. That said, his inconsistency is a problem.

Hurkacz is not the easiest player to predict either. That said, on hard courts, he is mostly solid. His one battle with Medvedev went his way, and while his match yesterday was long and could have ended in a loss, he won and didn’t have to exert himself at all during earlier parts of the tournament.

While getting 3.5 games is tempting, and +170 that this match goes to a third set is more than reasonable, it just doesn’t feel like Hurkacz winning outright is crazy. How often do you get +310 on a feasible outcome? If these guys play 10 times in this environment if you believe Hurkacz wins three of them, then playing him on the moneyline is excellent value. That doesn’t seem crazy at all.

Pick: Hurkacz to win (+310)

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