Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev Odds & Prediction – Nitto ATP Finals
- Action in ATP Finals’ Red Group begins Nov. 14 with Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev
- Medvedev is a strong favorite and holds an overwhelming head-to-head advantage, although Rublev won their most-recent clash
- See the Medvedev vs Rublev odds, predictions, and analysis of the best betting value
The good news for Andrey Rublev is that he does have wins over the other three players in the ATP Finals’ Red Group: Novak Djokovic, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev.
The bad news is that he has just one victory in six matches against Medvedev, and that’s the guy he faces first up on Monday, Nov. 14 (8:00 am ET).
Medvedev vs Rublev Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [4] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) | -3.5 (-121) | -305 | O 22.5 (+102) |
| [6] Andrey Rublev (RUS) | +3.5 (-104) | +235 | U 22.5 (-127) |
Odds as of Nov. 13 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Nitto ATP Finals
Medvedev is a big -305 moneyline favorite with the over/under set at 22.5 and the game spread at Medvedev +3.5 (-121).
The other three players in the pool are among the four top favorites to win the entire tournament.
So it’s an uphill battle for Rublev, in his third consecutive appearance in the year-end championships. He went 1-2 in both of his previous tries, although he came close to making the weekend in 2021.
Medvedev’s Up-and-Down Autumn
The 26-year-old Russian is a new dad; that happened shortly before Rafael Nadal did the same.
As a result, he didn’t play much after he was thwarted in his attempt to defend his US Open title. Warning signs went up when he retired after Djokovic won the second set of their semifinal clash in Astana, Kazakhstan, last month.
🇷🇸 @DjokerNole is into the final in Astana after Daniil Medvedev retired from their semifinal match due to a leg injury.
Djokovic had just won the second set to tie it at a set apiece when Medvedev stopped.
"I really hope that his injury is nothing too serious," Djokovic said.
— TENNIS (@Tennis) October 8, 2022
He was back about 2.5 weeks later in Vienna, beating a strong field to win the title, losing just one set.
Medvedev then was shocked in his opener at the Paris Masters by Alex de Minaur.
But the slower court in Turin and the vast tracts of land behind the baseline should be more to his liking.
Medvedev vs Rublev Head-to-Head
| 26 (Feb. 11, 1996) | Age | 25 (Oct. 20, 1997) |
| Moscow, Russia | Birthplace | Moscow, Russia |
| 6-6 | Height | 6-2 |
| 15 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 12 |
| No. 1 (Feb. 28, 2022) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 5 (Sept. 13, 2021) |
| No. 5 | Current Ranking | No. 7 |
| $25,470,381 | Career Prize Money | $13,140.858 |
| 45-16 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 49-18 |
| 5 | Head-to-Head Wins | 1 |
Rublev is 16-25 in his career (4-5 over the last 52 weeks) against top-10 players. That’s actually better than Casper Ruud, Félix Auger-Aliassime and Taylor Fritz amongst the group.
So he’s shown he’s capable on the day. He just hasn’t shown it either against Medvedev, nor at the ATP Finals to any great extent.
Not a Great Matchup for Rublev
The two are only a year and a half apart in age, and Rublev was more precocious than Medvedev.
Still, it feels as though Medvedev is the more mature, more polished product, and that a lot less can go wrong with his game.
Medvedev vs Rublev Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Cincinnati (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 2-6, 6-3, 6-3 | Rublev |
| 2021 | Austrailan Open (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 7-5, 6-3, 6-2 | Medvedev |
| 2020 | US Open (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 7-6 (6), 6-3, 7-6 (5) | Medvedev |
| 2019 | St. Petersburg (QF) | Indoor Hard | 6-4, 7-5 | Medvedev |
| 2019 | Cincinnati (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-2, 6-3 | Medvedev |
| 2016 | Budapest Challenger (R16) | Indoor Hard | 6-3, 6-2 | Medvedev |
Rublev ranked No. 39 on the ATP Tour the last 52 weeks in terms of success on his second serve, which is inarguably the most attackable part of his game.
Medvedev ranks No. 5 in his success rate on second-serve points won (Djokovic and Nadal are among those ahead of him).
As is often the case, that matchups are where victory and defeat are decided. And even if Rublev can fire absolute missiles on the forehand, he’s at a disadvantage on the backhand. And despite being the bigger man, Medvedev’s defence is superior – and also voluntarily a part of his arsenal where it’s a reluctant fallback for Rublev.
Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev Prediction
There isn’t much in this matchup to indicate that Rublev has a path to victory, even if you never know what might happen on the day.
His one victory came during a match where Medvedev had a nasty collision with an massive on-court television camera.
It’s fairly easy to get into Rublev’s head. And Medvedev is a master at doing that with anybody.
The game spread turns positive for Medvedev at +4.5 games (+145). That translates into a 6-4, 6-3, or 7-5, 6-2 win. Which seems quite feasible for the former No. 1.
Best Bet: Medvedev in Two Sets (-115)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
