Medvedev vs Shang Prediction, Picks & Odds at Doha (Feb 16)

World #11 Daniil Medvedev meets 21-year-old Juncheng Shang on Centre Court in Doha as part of the round of 32 at the 2026 Qatar ExxonMobil Open on Monday. Medvedev and Sheng are slated to start at 1:00 pm ET.

Medvedev, the 2023 champion in Doha, looks to stem a two-match losing streak after bowing out in the first round in Rotterdam. This will be his first match against Sheng, who is still working his way back from any injury that dropped him from #50 in the world at the end of the 2024 season to his current #261. Sheng is competing in Doha via protected ranking.

While the market positions Medvedev as a heavy favorite to advance, Shang’s quarterfinal appearance in Hong Kong earlier this year suggests he is finding his rhythm post-surgery. Bettors must weigh Medvedev’s elite defensive metrics on Qatar’s hard courts against the variance of a talented, unseeded underdog.

Medvedev vs Shang Odds

The handle for this opening-round tilt has seen sharp action. Medvedev opened as a -400 favorite, but the market has drifted slightly to -351, signaling some respect for Shang’s upside. Consequently, the underdog’s price has shortened from +300 to +275.

More notable is the correction in the spread and total markets. Bookmakers opened Medvedev as a 4.5-game favorite, but sharp money on Shang has tightened that line to 3.5. Simultaneously, the total-games line has ticked up from an opener of 20.5 to 22.5. The market is effectively pricing in a tighter contest than the rankings suggest, anticipating that Shang’s lefty forehand might prolong the rallies enough to push the game count over the initial projections.

Odds as of 9:31 pm ET at bet365. Lock in the bet365 bonus code to get a promo to use on the Qatar Open.

Daniil Medvedev vs Juncheng Shang Picks & Prediction

Medvedev typically requires a few games to download an opponent’s patterns, particularly against a left-hander like Shang whom he has never faced. Shang enters with a clean slate, carrying no scar tissue from previous defeats against the 2023 Doha champion. However, the disparity in ATP-level experience is the governing factor here. Medvedev has historically thrived in Doha – hoisting the trophy in 2023 – and his deep-block return position is specifically designed to neutralize the kind of heavy serve Shang utilizes.

While Shang has posted respectable results in 2026 (accumulating 100 race points), the gap in defensive quality and hold percentages between the two remains vast. The market movement toward Shang offers value on the favorite, as the correction has pushed Medvedev’s spread into a more accessible range.

Pick #1: Daniil Medvedev -3.5 Games (-138 at bet365)

The market’s adjustment from -4.5 to -3.5 creates significant expected value (EV) on the favorite. Medvedev’s game is predicated on suffocation; he forces opponents to hit extra balls, inducing unforced errors from players lacking top-tier patience. Shang, while talented, is still regaining peak fitness after missing most of 2025 with a right foot injury.

To cover -3.5, Medvedev simply needs to win in straight sets while avoiding a tiebreaker (e.g., 6-4, 6-4). His ability to turn defense into offense on these medium-slow hard courts should overwhelm Shang’s shot tolerance over the course of two sets.

Pick #2: Under 22.5 Total Games (-138 at bet365)

While the total has inflated to 22.5 due to early money on the underdog, the statistical profile of Medvedev’s wins against sub-100 ranked opponents points toward the Under. When Medvedev wins, he tends to do so efficiently. His flat backhand trajectory stays low, making it difficult for opponents to generate angles, often resulting in quick holds and pressure-filled service games for the returner.

For this match to go Over 22.5, Shang would likely need to force a tiebreak or push the match to three sets (e.g., 7-5, 6-4 is only 22 games). Considering this is Shang’s Doha debut and he is facing a former champion looking to conserve energy for a loaded draw that includes Rublev and Alcaraz, the most probable outcome is a clinical, straight-sets victory for the favorite that stays under the total.

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