Karolina Muchova vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova Odds & Prediction – French Open Quarterfinals Women’s Singles
- Two unseeded players – one ranked No. 333, play each other to make the French Open semifinals
- Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova reached the final in Paris two years ago but is coming back from injury
- Karolina Muchova is a slight favorite; we break down the matchup.
An unseeded player against one ranked No. 333 with a protected ranking isn’t how the French Open quarterfinals were drawn up, but the matchup between Karolina Muchova and Anastasia Pavylyuchenkova is how the top section of the bottom half of the draw shook out. Read on for an analysis of Muchova vs Pavlyuchenkova.
Muchova vs Pavlyuchenkova Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina Muchova (CZE) | -2.5 (-125) | -172 | O 21.5 (-122) |
| [PR] Anastasia Pavluyuchenkova (RUS) | +2.5 (-106) | +142 | U 21.5 (-110) |
At -172 odds, world No. 43 Muchova is a slight favorite in the Muchova vs Pavlyuchenkova quarterfinal at the French Open Tuesday (5 a.m. ET). Former French Open finalist Pavlyuchenkova is the underdog at +140 odds. Muchova vs Pavlyuchenkova odds as of June 5 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Underdog Pavlychenkova Getting Hot Just in Time
It was only two years ago that Pavlyuchenkova, a dominant junior who never quite lived up to that promise in the pros, shocked everyone by getting to the French Open final.
She has 12 career titles, going back to 2010. And she’s been a top-20 doubles player as well.
But since that breakthrough in Paris, a number of injuries set her back, to the point where she disappeared for all of 2022 after the Australian Open with the exception of two opening losses in Madrid and Paris last year.
She returned in 2023 healthy, but rusty. And she didn’t win back-to-back matches at the WTA level until the week before this year’s French Open, in Strasbourg. That’s why her actual ranking going in sat at No. 333.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova's stats entering the French Open quarterfinal:
136W/123UE
[📸: Tnani Badreddine/DeFodi] pic.twitter.com/xQSDosHvih
Avg rank of opponent: 31.75
9h16m match time
41.4% 1st serve return won (season avg: 36.7%)
65.2% 2nd serve return won (season avg: 56.9%)— WTARussians (@WTArussians) June 5, 2023
Pavlyuchenkova suffered the ignominy of dropping a 6-0, 6-0 decision to world No. 1 Iga Swiatek in Rome. Which isn’t as rare as it seems since Swiatek did it to another player in Paris last week. But still was a wake-up call.
So far in Paris, Pavlyuchenkova took care of up-and-coming teenager Linda Fruhvirtova – easily – in the first round then posted comeback wins over No. 15 seed Liudmila Samsonova, No. 24 Anastasia Potapova and No. 28 Elise Mertens on her way to the final eight.
Pavlyvchenkova was down 3-6, 1-3, and had a break point against her serve to go down 1-4 vs. Mertens. And she won.
Muchova Finally Getting Back on Top
As for Muchova, a well-rounded player who has every shot, a brief sojourn in the top 20 was followed by injuries – notably to her back – that set her back quite a bit.
She’s currently at No. 43, a ways away from her career high of No. 19 two years ago. But she only got back into the top 100 back in February, for the first time since June 2022.
Muchova upset No. 8 seed Maria Sakkari in the first round and inherited her draw, which means she had a fairly nice road to the quarterfinals.
And she probably likes her chances quite a bit against Pavlyuchenkova – who hadn’t won three matches since the 2021 US Open before her win over Mertens, and hasn’t gone this deep into a draw since that French Open final in 2021.
And she’s had a much harder to road to get there than the 26-year-old Czech.
Muchova vs Pavlyuchenkova Head-to-Head
| 26 (Aug. 21, 1996) | Age | 31 (July 3, 1991) |
| Olomouc, Czech Republic | Birthplace | Samara, Russia |
| 5-11 | Height | 5-9 |
| 1 | Career WTA Singles Titles | 12 |
| No. 19 (May 17, 2021) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 11 (Nov. 8, 2021) |
| No. 43 | Current Ranking | No. 333 |
| $4,205,445 | Career Prize Money | $12,550,004 |
| 23-7 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 12-9 |
| 2 | Head-to-Head Wins | 2 |
Second Meeting on Clay
This will be the second meeting on clay for these two, with Pavlyuchenkova eking out a close one in Madrid in 2021 – just a month before her effort at the French Open.
Muchova, who can come to the net, hit drop shots, and moves beautifully, will test Pavlyuchenkova’s endurance in any way she can.
Muchova vs Pavlyuchenkova Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Wimbledon (R32) | Grass | 7-5, 6-3 | Muchova |
| 2021 | Madrid (QF) | Outdoor Clay | 7-6 (4), 7-6 (2) | Pavlyuchenkova |
| 2019 | Moscow (SF) | Indoor Hard | 6-4, 6-7 (6), 6-1 | Pavlyuchenkova |
Muchova vs Pavlyuchenkova Prediction
This is a great opportunity for Muchova to make a major semifinal. And she has the tools to do it – and also make the final given that Iga Swiatek is in the other half.
We predict she’ll make good on this one.
Muchova vs Pavlyuchenkova Prediction: Muchova Wins the First Set, and the Match (-108)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
