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Ons Jabeur vs Garbiñe Muguruza Odds & Prediction – Chicago Fall Tennis Classic Finals

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Oct 2, 2021 · 6:34 PM PDT

Garbine Muguruza, US Open
Garbine Muguruza, of Spain, reacts after beating Victoria Azarenka, of Belarus, during the third round of the US Open tennis championships, Friday, Sept. 3, 2021, in New York. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
  • No. 2 seed Garbiñe Muguruza and No. 6 Ons Jabeur are well-rested ahead of their Chicago Fall Tennis final
  • The match will take place Sunday at 2 pm ET, with Muguruza the slight favorite to win
  • Read on for our player and match analysis, and predictions

The one thing Spain’s Garbiñe Muguruza and Tunisia’s Ons Jabeur will not have to worry about ahead of Sunday’s final in Chicago is being overworked.

Through seeded status and their opponents’ tummy troubles, neither has been pushed and should be fresh for this WTA 500 level tournament final.

Ons Jabeur vs Garbine Muguruza Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[6] Ons Jabeur (TUN) +0.5 (-112) -104 O 21.5 (-150)
[2] Garbiñe Muguruza (ESP) -0.5 (-118) -118 U 21.5 (-105)

Odds as of Oct. 2 at Fan Duel

Muguruza Gets Walkover vs Vondrousova

If Muguruza doesn’t win on Sunday, she won’t be able to blame it on bad draw luck or a heavy workload.

The world No. 9 got a bye in the first round. Then she defeated lucky loser Ann Li 6-4, 6-4.

And then she was gifted a walkover by No. 14 seed Victoria Azarenka in the third round.

After that, she had to face a qualifier having the tournament of her life in Japan’s Mai Hontama. Hontama, with various extremities taped up, gave Muguruza a much tougher tussle than the 6-3, 6-2 score indicated. But she was on fumes.

Muguruza didn’t even have to play her semifinal against Olympic silver medalist Marketa Vondrousova. The Czech lefty gifted Muguruza with her second walkover of the week because of “gastro-intestinal illness”.

Ons Jabeur vs Garbiñe Muguruza Head-to-Head

Ons Jabeur
VS
Garbiñe Muguruza
27 (Aug. 28, 1994) Age 27 (Oct. 8, 1993)
Ksar El-Hallar, Tunisia Birthplace Caracas, Venezuela
5-6 Height 6-0
1 Career WTA Singles Titles 8
0 Career Grand Slam Titles 2
No. 16 (Sept. 27, 2021) Career High Ranking No. 1 (Sept. 11, 2017)
No. 16 Current Ranking No. 9
3,795-89594,111 Career Prize Money $22,323,557
44-16 2021 Won/Loss record 37-14
1 Career Head to Head 1

Jabeur Also Has a Slack Saturday

Jabeur’s path to the final has been bit more arduous. But not by a ton.

After a bye, the 27-year-old Tunisian lost just one game against Hsieh Su-Wei.

She had to pull off a 1-6, 6-2, 6-3 victory over quality No. 9 seed Jessica Pegula. But she had little trouble with No. 1 seed Elina Svitolina in a 6-4, 6-2 quarterfinal win – her first career win over the Ukrainian.

On Saturday, opponent Elena Rybakina pulled the ripcord down a set and a break.

The stated reason also was gastro-intestinal illness.

Ons Jabeur vs Garbiñe Muguruza Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2021 Wimbledon (R32) Grass 5-7, 6-3, 6-2 Jabeur
2020 Hobart (R16) Outdoor Hard 3-6, 6-3, 7-6 (4) Muguruza

Power vs Guile is the Matchup – Again

The matchup between these two is not dissimilar to the one Jabeur prepared for against Rybakina.

Both Rybakina and Muguruza are powerful six-footers with a few challenges on the movement side. As a result, while they do fairly well going east-west along the baseline, they’re a lot less efficient when they’re pulled into the net.

The differences are that Muguruza is a lot more comfortable at the net than Rybakina, once she gets there (and especially of her own volition). But Muguruza doesn’t serve as well as Rybakina does. So that’s a bit of a wash.

Jabeur’s variety is the disrupting factor for a player like Muguruza, who likes pace and rhythm.

Jabeur With the Edge

As with Rybakina, Jabeur has had a pair of tough three-set matches against Sunday’s, also splitting those matches 1-1.

Her loss to Muguruza last January in Hobart, in a third-set tiebreak, came during a period when the Spaniard was on a super run of form. She was depleted enough to default her next match. But then she went all the way to the Australian Open final the next week.

Muguruza came into their Wimbledon clash as the 2017 champion. But Jabeur was on  her own streak; she had won her first career WTA Tour title just a few weeks before, also on grass. And after the upset victory, she ended up going to the Wimbledon quarterfinals.

So if precedent between the two means anything, both eked out tight wins against each other as the player on a better run of form.

In this final, you have to give that edge to Jabeur. Although it could take awhile.

The winner lost the first set in both their previous matches. By that metric, pick Jabeur to lose the first set and win the match (+540).

Best Bet: Over 2.5 sets (+112)

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