Opening Alcaraz vs Djokovic Odds for US Open Semifinal

• Carlos Alcaraz has blazed his way to the US Open semis without dropping a set
• The world #2 will face Novak Djokovic as a sizeable favorite on Friday evening
• See the opening Alcaraz vs Djokovic odds for the first men’s semifinal on Sep. 5

Searching for his second US Open title and sixth career grand-slam, world #2 Carlos Alcaraz will face 24-time grand-slam champion Novak Djokovic in the first men’s semifinal on Friday, Sep. 5.

Alcaraz is the second-favorite in the odds to win the US Open, narrowly trailing world #1 Jannik Sinner. He will head into the semifinals as a sizeable favorite to advance to his third grand-slam final this season.

Opening Alcaraz vs Djokovic Odds

Alcaraz is priced as a -260 favorite in the opening line, giving him a 72.22% implied win probability. Djokovic, a 24-time grand-slam champion who will turn 39 next May, comes back as a +200 underdog, which equates to a 33.33% implied win probability.

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Alcaraz is +150 to win the tournament heading into the semis, with Djokovic a +800 longshot to win his first slam since the 2023 US Open.

If Alcaraz is going to advance, he’ll need to do something he’s never done in his career: beat Djokovic on a hardcourt.

Head-to-Head History: Alcaraz vs Djokovic

Djokovic is 5-3 against Alcaraz in their eight career matches, winning four of the last five after dropping two of their first three meetings.

He’s a perfect 3-0 against Alcaraz on hardcourts, most-recently winning a four-setter at the Australian Open earlier this season. Djokovic also dominated a two-setter at the 2023 ATP Finals in Turin, and won a three-set thriller in Cincinnati earlier in 2023.

Path to the US Open Semifinals

Alcaraz has absolutely dusted his competition in the first five rounds. Alcaraz has spent just 9:41 on court so far. Only one opponent – Arthur Rinderknech in the fourth-round – managed to push Alcaraz to a single tiebreak, and only one other opponent – huge-serving 6’11 Reilly Opelka – managed to reach five games in a set.

Alcaraz has won seven of his 15 sets at the 2025 US Open by at least three games. His quarterfinal obliteration of world #21 Jiri Lehecka was his most-impressive performance to date. He didn’t allow a single breakpoint chance on his serve en route to a 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 win.

Djokovic hasn’t been nearly as convincing, losing sets to both world #35 Cam Norrie (6-4, 6-7, 6-2, 6-3) and #145 Zachary Svajda (6-7, 6-3, 6-3, 6-1). He then took advantage of a mentally-struggling Taylor Fritz in the quarters (). Fritz hit just ___ % of his first serves and converted an abhorrent 15.4% of his breakpoint chances (2-for-13).