Opening Sinner vs Alcaraz Odds for Cincinnati Open Final 2025

• World No. 1 Jannik Sinner will face No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz in the 2025 Cincinnati Open final
• This marks their fourth final meeting of the season, with Sinner winning most recently at Wimbledon
• See the opening Sinner vs Alcaraz odds for Monday’s Cincinnati Open Final 2025

Sharp money moves fast. Just ask anyone who watched Wimbledon. Jannik Sinner opened at +105 for that grass-court final but closed as the favorite after the betting public hammered his line.

Now the world No. 1 gets Carlos Alcaraz again, this time in Cincinnati. Alcaraz handled Alexander Zverev 6-4, 6-3 in Saturday’s semifinals after the German took a medical timeout. Birthday boy Sinner crushed qualifier Terence Atmane 7-6(4), 6-2 to defend his title.

The oddsmakers have adjusted, opening Sinner as a significant favorite for Monday’s showdown.

Sinner vs Alcaraz Odds

The opening Sinner vs Alcaraz odds price the Italian at -160 on the moneyline, with the Spaniard coming back as a +125 underdog. These odds give Sinner a 61.54% implied probability, compared to Alcaraz at 44.44%.

Although Sinner has the momentum right now, this line feels inflated for a rivalry this competitive.

Odds as of August 17 at BetMGM. Sign-up and claim the BetMGM promo code for a bonus to use on the 2025 Cincinnati final.

I locked in Sinner at -110 to win this tournament before it started. And yes, I predict he gets another win here, his second straight over Carlos. But -160? That’s too rich for this rivalry. If you like Alcaraz, bet him now because this line should tighten as we approach match time. If you’re backing Sinner, wait it out.

The final takes place on Center Court on Monday, August 18th at 3:00 pm ET. Not great for the American working crowd, but European tennis fans won’t complain.

Alcaraz vs Sinner H2H History

Chapter 14 of tennis’s best rivalry is upon us. And despite Sinner’s recent H2H victory, the numbers tell a different story.

Alcaraz leads their all-time series 8-5, though Sinner snapped a five-match losing streak with his straight-sets victory at Wimbledon last month. They’ve already met in three finals this season: Rome (Alcaraz won), Roland Garros (Alcaraz won in an epic five-setter), and Wimbledon (Sinner’s breakthrough).

Alcaraz vs Sinner Recent Results

On outdoor hard courts specifically? They’re deadlocked at 2-2 in their last four meetings. Alcaraz won their most recent hard-court battle in Beijing last year, rallying from a set down in a third-set tiebreaker thriller.

The surface matters here. Cincinnati’s courts play lightning fast, precisely the conditions where Sinner thrives. His 26-match winning streak on hard courts isn’t an accident.

Paths to the Final

Sinner’s been untouchable. Literally.

The defending champion hasn’t faced a single break point all tournament. Not one. He’s steamrolled through the draw without dropping a set, celebrating his 24th birthday by notching his 200th career hard-court victory against Atmane. His quarterfinal demolition of Felix Auger-Aliassime was a brutal 6-0, 6-2 beatdown that lasted just 70 minutes.

Through five matches, Sinner’s won 84% of his first-serve points and broken serve 11 times. He’s bidding to become the first man since Roger Federer (2014-15) to win back-to-back Cincinnati titles.

Alcaraz, meanwhile, has had a messier path to the Final. Way messier.

The Spaniard’s been broken in all four matches and needed three sets twice. His opening match perfectly captured his Cincinnati struggles – cruising through the first set in 28 minutes before completely losing focus and dropping the second to qualifier Damir Dzumhur. His semifinal looked easier on paper, but only because Zverev was clearly compromised physically after receiving medical treatment.

Still, give Alcaraz credit. He’s now won 15 consecutive ATP Masters 1000 matches and hit 50 wins for the season. He’s the first player since Djokovic to do that in four straight years. This will be his seventh consecutive final appearance, showing his consistency even when not at his sharpest.

For Alcaraz, redemption’s on the line. He held championship point against Djokovic here in 2023 but couldn’t close. For Sinner, it’s about proving Wimbledon wasn’t a fluke – that he’s found the formula to beat his greatest rival when it matters most.