Pegula vs Sabalenka Prediction, Picks & Betting Lines

• World #1 Aryna Sabalenka is a -320 moneyline favorite over #4 Jessica Pegula in Thursday’s US Open Semifinal
• Sabalenka is 7-2 all-time versus Pegula, including a win in last year’s US Open Final
• See the Pegula vs Sabalenka prediction, picks and betting lines, below

Stop if you’ve heard this matchup before: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula in a high-stakes US Open showdown. The pair met in last year’s final with Sabalenka emerging victorious, and online sportsbooks expect a repeat performance in Thursday’s semifinal.

The action is scheduled for 7:00 pm ET on Arthur Ashe, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Pegula vs Sabalenka Betting Lines

The most favorable odds for Sabalenka’s moneyline are -320 at FanDuel, while you can also bet her to cover the 4.5-game spread there at +104 odds. Pegula’s best odds to pull off the upset are +250 at bet365, which also has the best odds for her to cover the game spread. As for the total games, the consensus number is 21.5 around the industry, with bet365 and DraftKings offering the best odds on the over and under, respectively.

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Both players enter Thursday’s match well rested and in good form. Neither has dropped a set in the tournament so far, with Sabalenka earning a walkover in the quarters after Marketa Vondrousova withdrew.

Pegula, on the other hand, faced her first real test on Tuesday night and passed with flying colors. She made quick work of 2024 Wimbledon champ Barbora Krejcikova in the quarterfinals, dropping only 6 games along the way.

She went 5-for-9 on breakpoint opportunities, and will need an A+ return game to snap her personal three-match losing streak against Sabalenka.

Pegula vs Sabalenka H2H History – Last 3 Matches

The Belarusian has claimed each of the last three meetings in straight sets, and is 7-2 lifetime against Pegula. Sabalenka is only the fifth women in the last 35 years to reach all four Grand Slam semifinals in a single year, but she’s yet to take home one of those prestigious trophies this season.

Pegula vs Sabalenka Prediction & Picks

• Over 21.5 games (-120 at bet365)

In fact, Sabalenka has lost to an American in each of the previous three Slams. Madison Keys got her at the Aussie Open, Coco Gauff beat her in the Roland Garros Final, and Amanda Anisimova upset her at Wimbledon. I’m not ready to call for another American victory in my Pegula vs Sabalenka prediction, but I do think the crowd favorite will push Sabalenka to the brink.

It’s worth noting that Pegula had the World No. 1 on the ropes in last year’s US Open Final, but squandered leads in both sets. While Sabalenka hasn’t lost a set at the year’s final Slam, she has been taken to a tiebreak twice in her four completed matches, and needed a 12th game in the opening set of her first round matchup.

Pegula meanwhile, has dropped only 23 games total over 10 sets, and looked razor sharp in the quarters. She’s 15-4 all-time at Arthur Ashe Stadium, and the Flushing Meadows crowd will be completely behind her.

Pegula still has the sting of last year’s loss fresh in her mind, and is a much bigger hitter than Sabalenka’s last two opponents. She’ll be able to trade ground strokes with the Belarusian and force plenty of mistakes. Sabalenka is no stranger to massive unforced error numbers, committing 70+ in multiple matches over the past few months.

I’ll take over 21.5 games as my best bet, but wouldn’t be surprised if Pegula not only won a set, but punched a ticket to her second straight US Open Final as well.