Pegula vs Keys Odds, Picks & Predictions (Aus Open)

• Two top-10 Americans duel in the fourth round at the Aussie
• Madison Keys looks to defend her Australian Open title
• Read below for Pegula vs Keys odds, picks, and predictions for Jan. 25

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World No.6 Jessica Pegula and No.9 Madison Keys battle in the fourth round of the 2026 Australian Open on Sunday night. While Pegula has performed better of late, Keys is the reigning champion on the hardcourts in Melbourne.

Pegula and Keys are slated to clash at 7:30 pm ET on Sunday night (11:30 am local time on Monday). In the United States, viewers can find the bout on ESPN2 and ESPN Unlimited.

Pegula is a slight favorite, and she is among the top eight in terms of the Australian Open odds.

Pegula vs Keys Odds

For Jessica Pegula bettors, take -165 on the moneyline at DraftKings or -2.5 games on FanDuel (-120). For Madison Keys bettors, take +142 on the moneyline at FanDuel or +2.5 games for -110 odds, also at FanDuel.

For this best-of-three match, the best odds one can get on it ending in the minimum two sets are -165 (DraftKings). The best odds on it going the full three sets are +140 (BetMGM ).

The game total is set at 22.5 games. Over bettors should take the over 22.5 line provided by BetMGM (+105 odds). Under bettors should take the under 22.5 line provided by FanDuel (-126 odds).

Pegula vs Keyes: Head-to-Head Stats

Pegula has a marginal lead in both tour rank and Elo rank, particularly on hard court. So far in 2026, Pegula has had the superior service game, but Keys has performed better in the return game.

Pegula has won a higher percentage of both first serves and second serves this year than Keys has. Keys has been better at saving break points, doing so 63% of the time compared to Pegula’s 53.6%.

In the return game, Keys has covered 40.9% of break points, fairly better than Pegula’s 35.7%. Pegula has the slimmest of edges in terms of return points, but each metric is within 1%.

Both women are well above the average across the board, so this fourth-round clash will likely have the quality of a much later tournament match.

Elo ratings are sourced from Tennis Abstract.

Pegula vs Keys Picks

• Over 2.5 Sets (+140 at BetMGM)
• Madison Keys Moneyline (+142 at FanDuel)

I am backing the reigning champion to sneak through in a three-set match. Keys has not been at her best lately, but she is ranked higher now than she was back in 2025 when she won the Australian.

I anticipate Keys’ superior return game to frustrate Pegula just enough to secure a close win, perhaps one that goes to a tiebreaker in the final set.

Pegula vs Keys Last 5 Tournaments

Pegula has been in better form of late, making at least the semifinal in five straight tournaments. However, she has been nursing an injury that caused her to withdraw from the Adelaide tournament in between Brisbane and the Australian Open.

Keys has been the healthier player, but she has run into some (relative) struggles in recent performances. She crashed out in the opening round of the US Open in her most recent grand slam, and she has just made the quarters in her two tournaments in 2026.

Previous Australian Open Performances

Last year, Keys won her first Grand Slam at the Australian Open, her first appearance in a Grand Slam final since 2017. Keys had previously lost in the semifinals in 2015 and 2022 before breaking through to win in 2025.

Australia is Pegula’s second-best Grand Slam as she has a career 71% winning percentage, only training a 72% win rate at the US Open. Pegula had a shocking early-round loss in 2024, breaking a run of three straight quarterfinals at the Australian Open.

Pegula vs Keys Career

Madison Keys has won two of the three previous matchups over Jessica Pegula, including knocking the then-No.1 ranked Pegula off last year in Adelaide. This is the second matchup between these top-10 players at a Grand Slam, with Keys winning in straight sets back in the 2023 US Open.

Pegula last defeated Keys in 2022 at the quarterfinals in San Diego. Pegula prevailed in straight sets.