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Qatar Open Semifinals Odds & Picks: Kvitova vs Pegula & Azarenka vs Muguruza

Hayley Graham

by Hayley Graham in Tennis

Mar 4, 2021 · 6:53 PM PST

Garbine Muguruza hitting a forehand return during a tennis match.
Spain's Garbine Muguruza makes a forehand return to Kazakhstan's Zarina Diyas during their third round match at the Australian Open tennis championship in Melbourne, Australia, Friday, Feb. 12, 2021.(AP Photo/Andy Brownbill)
  • The semifinals are set in Doha, Qatar, and will take place on Friday, March 5th
  • Petra Kvitova and Jessica Pegula will play each other for the second time, and Victoria Azarenka and Garbine Muguruza will face off against each other
  • See below for both match odds and a best bet analysis

The last four have been finalized for the semifinals of the Qatar Open in Doha. They start tomorrow at 10:00 AM with Kvitova vs Pegula, followed by Azarenka vs Muguruza at 11:15 AM.

The biggest surprise here is American qualifier, Pegula, who absolutely dominated her quarterfinal match to upset No. 2 seed Karolina Pliskova. All three other players competing were amongst the top 10 best odds to win outright heading into tournament.

Take a look below for the odds going into each match, and how all four players got here.

Kvitova vs Pegula Semifinal Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Petra Kvitova -1.5 (-115) -141 Ov 21.5 (-114)
Jessica Pegula +1.5 (-110) +114 Un 21.5 (-112)

All odds taken Mar. 4th from DraftKings

Second Consecutive Semifinal

Fourth seed, Kvitova is no stranger to this semifinal, having been here last year. Because of her seeding coming into Qatar, she only has two matches under her belt heading into the semi’s.

Kvitova got through her round of 16 match with ease, but suffered a slight hiccup in her quarterfinal match against Anett Kontaveit, where she dropped the second set, and had to come back in the third to win 6-3, 3-6, 6-2.

Can Pegula Continue to Upset?

The 27-year old had a rough start to the tournament, almost losing her opening match. She eventually won 6-2, 6(3)-7(9), 7(8)-6(6). But since then, she hasn’t dropped a set, and has beat Qiang Wang, Jelena Ostapenko, and Karolina Pliskova.

Since Pegula is the only qualifier in the final four, she has played the most matches, as well as has spent the most time on the court this tournament. She’s been doing something right here, having defeated players who were expected to beat her.

Best Bet

These two have played each other once before, with Kvitova winning in the third round of the 2020 US Open.

Pegula has had a stellar start to 2021, and is currently ranked a career high No. 44. Kvitova, on the other hand has had a slower start to the year, but her recent come from behind win should give her a bit of confidence heading into this match.

Despite how great Pegula is playing, I think Kvitova will have the upperhand in this match. It’s definitely going to be close, and not an easy task. Pegula will come out aggressive, and she has a strong offensive game, where she actually plays similar to Kontaveit. It’ll definitely be interesting, and a close, tight match.

The Pick: Kvitova (-141), 2-0 (+170)

Azarenka vs Muguruza Semifinal Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Victoria Azarenka +4.5 (-120) +205 Ov 20.5 (+102)
Garbine Muguruza -4.5 (-106) -265 Un 20.5 (-129)

Azarenka’s Injury

Eighth seed, and two-time Doha champ, Victoria Azarenka is coming off a big win in the quarterfinals, defeating No.1 seed Elina Svitolina in straight sets, 6-2, 6-4.

But it came at a little bit of a price.

Back pain apparently came up as she was warming up for that match, and looked to worsen with time. She ended up requiring a couple medical timeouts as early as the second game. You could tell throughout the match that Azarenka was struggling with her movement on the court.

But Azarenka hasn’t dropped a set all tournament, despite the injury. I’d say that if it wasn’t for the back issues, she might the favorite heading into the semis, but we don’t know if she will have healed at all in time for tomorrow.

Muguruza the Favorite

Muguruza is also coming off a huge semifinal win, defeating Maria Sakkari 6-3, 6-1. She was able to convert 5 of 12 breakpoints, and recorded 14 winners with only seven unforced errors. She only dropped nine points on her serve throughout her quarterfinal match, where she also broke Sakkari five times.

Muguruza has had a pretty straightforward week, having a slight slip in her round of 16 match against Aryna Sabalenka, where she lost the tight second set.

Best Bet

These two players are no stranger to each other having played each other four times before. But funny enough, two of their matches were walkovers, having both players retiring from a match due to injury. Hopefully that doesn’t happen this time around.

Muguruza’s serve has been her strongest asset to her game this tournament, and if Azarenka wasn’t dealing with injury, I’d say she’d be more of a threat to Muguruza’s game, possibility making it go three sets. But because of the injury, it’s a harder sell.

But the Spaniard plays an aggressive game, and won’t sit back waiting for the ball to come to her, she will actively go after it.

The Pick: Muguruza (-265), 2-0 (-104)

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