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Serena Williams vs Victoria Azarenka Odds & Preview: US Open Women’s Singles Semifinals

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Updated Mar 8, 2021 · 12:33 PM PST

williams
United States' Serena Williams reacts after winning a point against Romania's Simona Halep during their quarterfinal match at the Australian Open tennis championship in Melbourne, Australia, Tuesday, Feb. 16, 2021.(AP Photo/Hamish Blair)
  • Unseeded Victoria Azarenka is a slight favorite to win this US Open semifinal match
  • The odds defy the head-to-head between them, which is 18-4 in Williams’s favor
  • We’ll explain why that is, and who’s the better bet

It has been more than five years since Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka met in a Grand Slam tournament.

So much has changed since then.

But even though Williams holds the overwhelming career head-to-head advantage, Azarenka’s return to form over the last few weeks makes her a slight favorite for Thursday night’s semifinal.

Late Wednesday night, they were virtual co-favorites; the balance shifted to Azarenka overnight.

Serena Williams vs Victoria Azarenka Odds

Player Spread Moneyline at DraftKings Total
Serena Williams (USA) +1.5 (-113) +118 O 22.5 (+102)
Victoria Azarenka (BLR) -1.5 (-113) -148 U 22.5 (-129)

Odds taken Sept. 10

The Resurgence of Azarenka

Since her return in June 2018 after having son Leo, Azarenka had never quite gotten her career back on track. She watched her ranking bounce around in the 40s and 50s for two years.

She missed significant chunks of time to deal with a contentious child custody hearing.

Azarenka didn’t play after last year’s US Open. And when she returned last winter – the pandemic hit.

Serena Williams vs Victoria Azarenka Head to Head

Serena Williams
VS
Victoria Azarenka
38 (Sept. 25, 1981) Age 31 (July 30, 1989)
Saginaw, Michigan Birthplace Minsk, Belarus
5-9 Height 6-0
73 WTA Singles Titles 21
23 Grand Slam Singles Titles 2
No. 8 Current Ranking No. 27
No. 1 (July 7, 2002) Career High Ranking No. 1 (Jan. 29, 2012)
$94,722,122 Career Prize Money $30,650,035
18 Head-to-Head 4

During these three weeks in the US Open bubble, it has clicked in.

On Wednesday, she destroyed No. 16 seed Elise Mertens – a player who also has had a very good run – in the quarterfinals. Mertens got just one game, and never held serve.

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Azarenka is ready – no, she’s eager – to take on the Serena challenge in the semifinals.

“Tomorrow is going to be fun. I’m going to enjoy the hell out of it,” she told ESPN after the win over Mertens.

Serena Improving with Every Match

As for Williams, her battle to defeat the unseeded but tricky Tsvetana Pironkova in their quarterfinal was encouraging.

After she lost the first set, she didn’t panic. Serena roared, but most importantly she raised her level.

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Head-to-Head Overwhelmingly for Serena

How can Azarenka be the favorite given Williams has won 18 of the 22 matches between them, going all the way back to the 2008 Australian Open?

Two issues come into play.

The first is Azarenka’s current form and her performances against Williams when the Belarussian was playing her best.

She beat Williams twice on hard courts in 2013 at the peak of her powers. And she beat her in straight sets in the 2016 Indian Wells final – after which Azarenka completed the “Sunshine Double” in Miami. If she hasn’t done it often, she knows how to beat her.

Serena Williams vs Victoria Azarenka – Previous Grand Slam Meetings

Year Tournament Round Score Winner
2015 Wimbledon QF 3-6, 6-2, 6-3 Williams
2015 French Open R32 3-6, 6-4, 6-2 Williams
2013 US Open Final 7-5, 6-7 (6), 6-1 Williams
2012 US Open Final 6-2, 2-6, 7-5 Williams
2012 Wimbledon SF 6-3, 7-6 (6) Williams
2011 US Open R32 6-1, 7-6 (5) Williams
2010 Australian Open QF 4-6, 7-6 (4), 6-2 Williams
2009 Wimbledon QF 6-2, 6-3 Williams
2009 Australian Open R16 3-6, 4-2, retd Williams
2008 Australian Open R32 6-3, 6-4 Williams

The second issue involves Williams’s dramatic swoons in Grand Slam finals the last few years as she’s tried (in vain, so far) to match the professional tennis record of 24 Grand Slam singles titles.

This isn’t a final. But it sure feels like one even though Azarenka has never beaten Williams in a Grand Slam.

You would expect this to be a long match. So some of the total games offers are intriguing, as well as the +230 on Azarenka winning the first set 6-2 or 6-3. Williams has been a slow starter during the tournament.

Younger, Fitter, Faster

When they met in those US Open finals, Williams was the age Azarenka is now; Azarenka was just 23 and 24.

At 31, the Belarussian is fitter than she has ever been. Her energy has never flagged through all the tennis the last three weeks. No body parts are wrapped. And she looks faster than when she was at her peak.

“The physicality of the players (then) wasn’t what it is now, so I knew I had to step it up with my movement,” she told ESPN Wednesday.

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Williams, on the other hand, is not what she was seven years ago.

Still highly dangerous, she’s no longer supreme.

Azarenka will return to the top 20 with her US Open effort. If she beats Williams, she’ll leap into the top 15.

Any intimidation factor went away long ago for her, and there won’t be 23,000 American fans in the stadium to urge Williams on.

She has everything to gain; Williams has everything to lose. And her recent history when in that position has not been kind.

Best bet: Azarenka (-148)

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