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Shanghai Masters Semifinals Odds & Pick: Alexander Zverev vs Matteo Berrettini

Hans Themistode

by Hans Themistode in Tennis

Updated Apr 1, 2020 · 10:02 AM PDT

Alexander Zverev
Alexander Zverev is favored over Italy's Matteo Berrettini in the semifinals of the Shanghai Masters. By Keith Allison (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • Both Matteo Berrettini and Alexander Zverev upset the apple cart to make it the semifinals of the Shanghai Masters
  • Who holds the edge head-to-head?
  • Who’s run to the final will continue?

The semifinals of the Shanghai Open are official but it isn’t the one most were expecting. Number 5 seed Alexander Zverev will be taking on the 11th seeded Matteo Berrettini.

It’s a matchup that features two heavy hitters who have shown plenty of resiliency. Both men have shown tremendous form throughout this tournament but it’s Zverev who finds himself with the slight edge according to the oddsmakers.

Matteo Berrettini vs Alexander Zverev Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Matteo Berrettini +2.5 (-109) +123 O 23 (-116)
Alexander Zverev -2.5 (-111) -143 U 23 (-104)

*Odds taken 10/11/2019

It’s been a rocky 2019 for Zverev following a breakthrough 2018. He finished up the previous year matching his career-high ranking of Number 4 in the world. He also won the year-end tournament, defeating Novak Djokovic in the last game.

Instead of continuing his success this year he has somewhat floundered. He has yet to make any significant progress in any grand slam tournament and he hasn’t found as much success this year overall. He has already lost 21 matches this year after losing only 22 the entire previous year.

Zverev seems to be turning his year around, however, with some of his most recent performances.

How They Got Here

After winning the Laver Cup for his teammates in September and making the semifinals in Beijing, Zverev has carried that momentum into the Shanghai Masters.

In his opening round matchu,p he took on Jeremy Chardy. It was a close matchup. One that went to two tiebreakers. Zverev wouldn’t be denied as he managed to win both.

Zverev would see a familiar foe in the following round as he took on Andrey Rublev. The Russian born player is enjoying the best year of his career but was outclassed in straight sets.

The semifinals saw Zverev matched up with 20-time grand slam winner Roger Federer. After three hard-fought sets, it was Zverev who came out on top with a surprising upset. That win set up a date with a man who is having the best year of his career in Matteo Berrettini.


With a career-high ranking of 13 and three titles this year under his belt, Berrettini carried that momentum into the Shanghai Masters where he hasn’t dropped a single set. Don’t blame his success on a lack of competition as he has fought a murderous row on his way to the semifinal.

His opening round win against Jan Lennard Struff was a dominant one, losing just three total games in two sets. Christian Garin was his opponent in the following round but he too was easily dispatched of. Berrettini would see a much more difficult matchup against Roberto Bautista Agut in the round of 16. After winning a close tiebreaker in the first set, Berrettini would get an early break in the second set to end the match and move on.

Any doubts of Berrettini being the real deal was easily dispelled as he defeated the Number 4 player in the world in Dominic Thiem in straight sets to set up his semifinal challenge against Zverev.

How Do They Matchup?

Matteo Berrettini and Alexander Zverev are very familiar with one another’s game. They have met twice, with both times coming at the Rome Masters. Zverev came out on top in straight sets in 2018 while Berrettini managed to get his revenge this year.

Although they have shared the court with one another, it doesn’t exactly tell us much in terms of how their third meeting will play out. The Shanghai Masters is played on hard courts while the courts in Rome are made from clay.

Zverev vs Berrettini Stats

Alexander Zverev
Matteo Berrettini
43-21 Total Wins/Losses This Year 44-18
25-10 Wins/Losses on Hard Court 20-12
1 Wins Against Each Other 1
6th Rankings 13th

Taking a look at Berrettini’s year in totality is impressive. A record of 44 wins with just 18 defeats is eye-catching. His hard court showing which stands at 20 wins against 12 losses isn’t as impressive but numbers can be deceiving. He has managed to knock off a few big-name players from this surface including Andrey Rublev, Gael Monfils and Dominic Thiem being the latest victim. He also made a deep run at the US Open, making it to the semifinal before getting beaten by Rafael Nadal.

Zverev, on the other hand, is playing on a surface in which he has gotten 25 wins with only 10 defeats. He has seemingly gotten past his early-season woes and looks the part of the dominant player he once was the past two seasons.

Where to Put Your Money

This should be a good matchup. A close one as well. Berrettini is on a roll this year. He is steadily working his way up the rankings as he has his eyes on the year-end tournament if he can just move up a few more slots. A win over Zverev will officially stamp the Italian born Berrettini’s arrival, but don’t count on it.

If this matchup took place a few months ago while Zverev was struggling then I would have been inclined to go with Berrettini. However, since helping his teammates hoist the Laver Cup, Zverev has really gotten back on track.

It won’t be an easy matchup at all but expect Zverev to make it to the Shanghai Masters Finals.

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