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Shanghai Masters Semifinals Odds & Pick: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniil Medvedev

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Tennis

Updated Mar 30, 2020 · 3:54 PM PDT

Daniil Medvedev returns a shot
World #4 Daniil Medvdev is in the semfinals of the ATP Shangahi Masters. He's reached the final of his last five tournaments. Photo by robbiesaurus (Wikimedia) [CC License]
  • Daniil Medvedev is the -230 favorite to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in the ATP Shanghai Masters semifinals
  • World #4 Medvedev has reached the final of his last five tournaments
  • Tsitsipas is 0-4 lifetime against the Russian in head-to-head matches

Can Stefanos Tsitsipas find a way to derail the locomotive that is Daniil Medvedev on a tennis court?

The two players clash in Saturday’s semifinals of the ATP Shanghai Masters. Medvedev will be looking to advance to his sixth straight tournament final.

This is the fourth successive ATP Masters 1000 event in which Medvedev has at least reached the semifinals.

Sportsbooks are strongly in Medvedev’s corner for this match. The world’s #4-ranked player has odds of -230 to defeat Tsitsipas.

Shanghai Masters Semifinal Odds: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniil Medvedev

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Stefanos Tsitsipas +175 +3.0 (-130) Over 23.0 (-110)
Daniil Medvedev -230 -3.0 (EVEN) Under 23.0 (-120)

*Odds taken 10/11/19

The winner will face either Matteo Berrettini or Alex Zverev in the tournament final on Sunday.

Medvedev’s Meteoric Rise

The Russian star hasn’t lost a match outside of a tournament final since July. Medvedev was defeated by David Goffin in the round of 32 at Wimbledon.

Since then, he’s won at Cincinnati and in St. Petersburg. Medvedev lost in the finals at the Citi Open, Rogers Cup and the US Open. That was his first final appearance at a Grand Slam event.


Medvedev is 27-3 in his last 30 matches, all on hard court surfaces. He’s won 14 straight games. Overall, he is 62-12 in games during his hot streak.

A year ago, he’d dropped out of the top 20 in the world rankings after a second-round loss in Shanghai. If he wins here, Medvedev will move past Roger Federer and sit #3 overall in the world.

Tsitsipas Topples Djokovic

Certanly, Tsitspipas will come into this match off a huge high. He defeated world #1 Novak Djokovic 3-6 7-5 6-3 in the quarterfinals.

It didn’t start out to be a memorable day for the young Greek. Tsitsipas rapidly dropped the first three games of the match to four-time Shanghai champion Djokovic in a timeframe of seven minutes.

YouTube video

It’s the first time Tsitsipas has ever beaten the world’s top-ranked player. The victory assured him of a place in the ATP Finals in London.

Djokovic had never previously failed to reach the semifinals at Shanghai.

There’s a History Here

If this were boxing or UFC, they’d be hyping this semifinal clash as a grudge match.

The first time Medvedev and Tsitsipas met on court was at the 2018 ATP Miami Masters 1000. The match ended in a 2-6, 6-4, 6-2 win for Medvedev and in a heated verbal exchange shortly after the players shook hands at the net.


The bad blood between the two players has continued to this day. “I’m not enemies with him, but we’re definitely not friends,” Medvedev told TennisNow.com of Tsitsipas earlier this year.

Tsitsipas countered by noting, “I have not said the best things to Daniil Medvedev.”

On court, Medvedev has won every match between the pair. He’s 4-0 against Tsitsipas.


Medvedev beat Tsitsipas three times in 2018, including during the round of 64 at the US Open. This year, he toppled the young Greek at the Monte Carlo Masters 1000.

It would be wrong to suggest that he has dominated Tsitsipas, though. Three of their four matches went the distance. Their US Open match lasted four sets.

The Future of Men’s Tennis?

All four semifinalists in Shanghai are 23 or younger. Medvedev and Berrettini are 23. Zverev is 22 and Tsitsipas is 21.

Medvedev vs Tsitsipas Stats

Daniil Medvedev
Stefanos Tsitsipas
4 World Ranking 6
3 2019 Tournament Titles 2
4 Head-To-Head (Matches) 0
9 Head-To-Head  (Games) 4
41-9 2019 Hard Courts Record 25-13
17-6 2019 Masters 1000 Record 9-7
7-6 Record Versus World Top 10 5-5

Of this foursome, Medvedev is clearly in the best form. Along with Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, he shares the season lead in wins against world top-10 players with seven each.

YouTube video

He’s an impressive 41-9 this season on hard courts. Medvedev also shows a solid slate in Grand Slams (11-4) and ATP Masters 1000 (17-6) events. And he’s 20-8 in tiebreakers.

When Medvedev wins the first set, he’s 49-1 in those matches. That’s an impressive .925 win rate.

Pick: Daniil Medvedev (-235), Over 23 (-110)

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