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Shelby Rogers vs Jelena Ostapenko Odds & Prediction – BNP Paribas Open Quarterfinals

Hayley Graham

by Hayley Graham in Tennis

Oct 13, 2021 · 7:58 AM PDT

Jelena Ostapenko celebrating after winning a tennis match.
Jelena Ostapenko, of Latvia, celebrates after winning a game against Iga Swiatek, of Poland, at the BNP Paribas Open tennis tournament Tuesday, Oct. 12, 2021, in Indian Wells, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
  • Shelby Rogers and Jelena Ostapenko will face each other in the BNP Paribas Open quarterfinals later today
  • This will be the third meeting between the two players
  • Continue below for odds, preview, and our best bet prediction

The quarterfinals are here in California, and American Shelby Rogers will face 24th seed Jelena Ostapenko in one of the two matches happening today for women’s singles. The two are set to take the court at about 9 pm ET tonight. The BNP Paribas Open, also known as Indian Wells Masters takes place at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden on outdoor hard courts.

Ostapenko will be heading into this quarterfinal match as the favorite to move onto the final four, and she currently holds the head-to-head edge against the American.

Take a look below at the odds for this match, and how each player had made it to this point in the tournament.

Shelby Rogers vs Jelena Ostapenko BNP Paribas Open Quarterfinals Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Shelby Rogers +2.5 (-115) +125 Ov 21.5 (-120)
[24] Jelena Ostapenko -2.5 (-120) -155 Un 21.5 (-115)

Odds as of October 13th at DraftKings

Playing on Home Soil

The now 29-year old Rogers continues to shine on home turf. The American went on to defeat young Canadian phenom Leylah Fernandez in three sets to earn her spot in the quarterfinals.

After losing the first set, Rogers had to find a way to fight back, and she did just that by securing the comeback, winning 2-6, 6-1, 7(7)-6(4), in just over two and a half hours.

Rogers was entering the match with the head-to-head edge having already beat Fernandez on a hard court back in 2020. But it wasn’t the unforced errors in this match that allowed Rogers to secure the win. Both the American and Canadian recorded the same amount, but Rogers managed to hit 36 winners to Fernandez’s 25.

With her quarterfinals appearance, Rogers has her best showing at this tournament. She’s been in the main draw five times before, but had never been able to make it to the final eight.

Ostapenko will be a tough opponent, but does Rogers have enough momentum to take her through? How will the crowd support her going forward?

The Favorite

Ostapenko is coming off an incredible match where she stunned second seed Iga Swiatek in straight sets, winning 6-4, 6-3. The 24-year old was nowhere near the favorite heading into that match, but was able to dominate from start to finish, not allowing Swiatek to gain any momentum whatsoever.

It was a battle of two former French Open champs on the outdoor hard court, and Ostapenko was the one who managed to find success this time. Surprisingly, this is her first win over a Top 10 player this year.

Nothing in the statistics really pops out as a direct indication as to how Ostapenko upset Swiatek. The Latvian was extremely aggressive in her play that didn’t allow for Swiatek to be able to execute much against her.

She’s now the favorite heading into her quarterfinal match against Rogers, who should be able to give her trouble as well. But with the confidence that Ostapenko should be carrying after that upset, who knows.


Rogers and Ostapenko have played each other a couple of times before, with Ostapenko leading the head-to-head 2-0. Their first meeting came back in 2017, with their most recent match happening in 2019. This match in California will be their first time facing each other on a hard court.

Shelby Rogers vs Jelena Ostapenko Head-to-Head Stats

44 WTA Standing 29
28 Age 24
0 Career Titles 4
265/216 Career W/L 270/166
0 YTD Titles 1
25/21 YTD W/L 28/17
0 Head-to-Head Wins 2

Best Bet

Ostapenko’s aggressive play has shown to be effective this tournament. But in the past, we’ve seen her aggressive play sometimes backfire with unforced errors, and even sloppy tennis. This tournament, she’s shown that she’s tighten all that up, but still has found a way to dictate the pace of the match.

Rogers has had a pretty steady season over the course of 2021, and managed big wins against bigger players. She’s have the crowd on her side, something she actually had to share in the Round of 16 match against the Canadian, given Fernandez’s performance at the US Open.

Given the head-to-head record, and just how she’s playing this week, Ostapenko seems to be the one to beat here. As the favorite coming into the match, the best bet shows value in how many sets.

Best Bet: Ostapenko 2-0 (+155)

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