Shelton vs Sinner Odds, Picks & Predictions for Jan. 28

• Italy’s Jannik Sinner is a -1200 favorite to top American Ben Shelton in the quarter-finals of the Australian Open
• Sinner has won eight of nine career meetings vs Shelton, including in last year’s Aussie Open semi-final
• See my Shelton vs Sinner predictions and picks below

No. 2-ranked Jannik Sinner continues his run for a third straight Australian Open title early Wednesday morning when the Italian battles American No. 8 Ben Shelton. Sinner dispatched of his counterpart in last year’s Aussie Open in the semis, taking it 7-6, 6-2, 6-2, his third victory over Shelton in career grand slams.

He’s the favorite in the Australian Open odds at -125, slightly ahead of Carlos Alcaraz, who is +140.

Shelton vs Sinner gets underway in the wee hours of Wednesday morning, no earlier than 3:00am ET from Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne with ESPN and the tennis channel providing the broadcast coverage in the United States and TSN in Canada.

Shelton vs Sinner Odds

Jannik Sinner is the heavy -1200 favorite over Ben Shelton, who is +700. The odds for the Italian have an implied win probability of 92.3%. In this tournament, Shelton was victorious in straight sets versus Ugo Humbert, Dane Sweeny and Valentin Vacherot, before going four sets in a win over Casper Ruud.

Sinner, meanwhile, advanced on a walkover against Hugo Gaston, then in straight sets vs James Duckworth and four frames against Eliot Spizzirri. The two-time defending champ then ousted fellow Italian Luciano Darderi in straight sets.

Sinner is also a hefty 6.5-game favorite on the spread, while the game-total line is at 34.5 for this best-of-five match.

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Historically, this matchup hasn’t even been close, with Shelton taking the first ever meeting in 2023, but Sinner dominating all other eight matches. What’s even more impressive is that during that time frame, he hasn’t lost a single set in those eight times squaring off!

Shelton vs Sinner H2H Results

This will be the fifth time the American has reached a grand slam quarter-final, with three of them featuring the Aussie Open. He’s made a pair of semis at the 2023 U.S. Open, and last year’s Aussie, but fell in straight sets to Sinner. The Italian is searching for his third straight title down under, and could also eventually wind up making his sixth straight grand slam final appearance (three wins, two runner-ups).

Shelton vs Sinner Picks & Prediction

• Under 34.5 Games (-120 at bet365)

Last year’s tilt at the Aussie Open went 29 games between Shelton and Sinner. In fact, the four times these two have dueled in a match that went three sets, it’s never gone over 34.5 total games.

Given the remarkable track record by Sinner vs his combatant, I just don’t see the American stealing away a set. If that holds true, it’ll be very difficult to get over the 34.5 listed games total.

The winner of this match will square off in the semis against the champion of the Novak Djokovic-Lorenzo Musetti battle, and I expect it to be Sinner with relative ease.