Sinner vs Alcaraz Picks, Predictions & Odds for ATP finals

• Jannik Sinner is a -173 favorite over Carlos Alcaraz in the ATP Finals
• Alcaraz holds a 10-5 H2H advantage over the Italian
• See my Sinner vs Alcaraz picks and predictions below, plus the latest odds for the ATP Finals

I know Sundays are made for football, but you’re going to want to save room on a second screen for the ATP Finals. For the sixth time in as many months, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will square off with a title at stake. The majority of the matches have gone the Spaniard’s way, but I’m betting on Sinner bucking that trend on Sunday.

The action is set to get underway at Noon ET, with live coverage available on the Tennis Channel.

Here are my Sinner vs Alcaraz picks and predictions, plus the latest odds.

Sinner vs Alcaraz Picks and Predictions

• Jannik Sinner moneyline (-173 at DraftKings)

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Alcaraz may have recent head-to-head history on his side, but there are plenty of things working in Sinner’s favor in this matchup.

He’ll have homecourt advantage with this tournament being staged in Italy, and the surface better suits his game. Indoor hardcourts extenuate his pristine ball striking from both wings, and he doesn’t have to deal with any elements that might muck up the tennis.

Sinner also enters playing some of the best tennis of his life. The Italian is 20-1 in is last 21 matches, with his lone loss coming as a result of an injury. He’s breezed through his four matches this week so far, without dropping a set.

Sinner’s serve has a lot to do with the success, as he’s yet to to be broken. Not only has he not lost a service game this week, he’s faced only 12 break points. He’s now 14-2 all-time at this tournament after cruising past Alex De Minaur in the semifinals, raising the trophy last year following a runner-up finish in 2023.

From a stats perspective, the season long numbers favor Sinner as well. The Italian is the top rated returner and pressure leader, and the third highest graded server. He’s ahead of Alcaraz in all three categories, as the Spaniard is much more prone to unforced errors and loose service games. Alcaraz can usually overcome those issues with stellar defense and quick counter striking, but he’s not as crisp and robotic as Sinner.

I realize Alcaraz holds a significant head-to-head advantage over Sinner, but just one of those results was on indoor hardcourt, and it was all the way back in 2021. Since then, Sinner has morphed into one of the all-time greats, and his recent form is simply too good to fade. The Italian has dropped only three sets total in his last 21 matches, and has won 16 consecutive sets at the ATP Finals dating back to 2024.

Sinner vs Alcaraz Last 5 H2H Results

It won’t show up on their official head-to-head results, but these two titans played an indoor hardcourt exhibition match last month, with $6 million on the line at the Six Kings Slam. It may not have counted towards their world rankings, but both players were going full speed, and Sinner cruised to a 6-2, 6-4 victory.

Casual bettors are going to see Alcaraz as a plus-money underdog and flock to the window to bet him. Typically I would agree, as the separation between these two giants is usually razor thin. In this instance however, the gap is wider. Surface and recent form favor Sinner, not to mention the boost he’ll get from the hometown crowd.

It’s also fair to wonder if Alcaraz might lack a little motivation on Sunday. He’s already secured the world no. 1 ranking heading into next season regardless of how this match plays out. Sinner should be hungrier to regain top spot, and a win on Sunday would be a major confidence boost heading into next year’s Australian Open.

Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Odds

The best place to bet Sinner right now is at DraftKings. They’re offering him at -173 odds, with Alcaraz coming back as a +141 underdog. Sinner is also laying 2.5 games on the spread, while the total sits at 23.5 games.

Sinner opened as a longer favorite, but sharp money came in on him immediately shortening his moneyline. I completely agree with the line move, and can’t wait to see him extract some revenge on Alcaraz for his US Open defeat.

Odds as of November 15. Get in on the action betting the ATP Finals with the DraftKings promo code.