Sinner vs De Minaur Picks & Predictions for ATP Semifinals
By Chris Amberley in Tennis
Published:
- Jannik Sinner is a -1120 favorite over Alex De Minaur in the ATP semifinals
- Sinner is 12-0 lifetime versus the Australian, and holds a 27-2 total sets advantage
- See my Sinner vs De Minaur picks and predictions for the ATP semifinals
They say past performance isn’t predictive of future success, but when it comes to Jannik Sinner versus Alex De Minaur, it’s nearly impossible to build a case for history not repeating itself. Sinner has been pegged as a massive favorite over the Australian in Saturday’s ATP semifinals, and I’m not convinced the Italian will even break a sweat en route to the final.
The action is set to get underway at 8 am ET, with live coverage available on the Tennis Channel.
Here are my Sinner vs De Minaur picks and predictions.
Sinner vs De Minaur Picks and Predictions
- Under 20.5 Games (-125 at DraftKings)
Sinner is an astounding 12-0 all-time versus De Minaur, including 3-0 in matches this year. He dismantled the Aussie in this exact scenario last year at this event, and holds a 27-2 total sets advantage in their head-to-head history.
Sinner has been a tour de force since losing in the US Open Final, and breezed through his round robin matches without dropping a set. He’s 19-1 in his last 20 matches, with his lone defeat coming as the result of an injury. Each of those 20 matches took place on hard court, where Sinner is 37-3 this season, with two of the losses coming to world no. 1 Carlos Alcaraz.
As for De Minaur, he was an extreme longshot just to reach this point. After dropping his first two matches, De Minaur needed to upset American Taylor Fritz in straight sets to advance. Miraculously he did, but now he faces a challenge of epic proportions.
De Minaur’s form is no where close to Sinner’s, as it’s been four months since he even reached a final. During that stretch, he’s 1-5 versus top-10 opponents, and just 2-10 versus top-10 foes for the entire season.
Sinner vs De Minaur Last 5 H2H Results
I don’t expect much fight from the Australian, but let’s be honest, no one on the planet right now can match Sinner on a tennis court besides Alcaraz. With his sweep of the round robin, Sinner is 13-2 all-time at the ATP Finals, with a title last season and a runner-up finish in 2023. He’s dropped just three sets in his last 20 matches, and he’ll cruise to another straight sets victory on Saturday.
That’s why I’m betting under 20.5 games as my Sinner vs De Minaur prediction. De Minaur has won more than four games in only two of the last 18 sets they’ve played, and Sinner cruised to a 6-3, 6-4 win in last year’s tournament semifinal.
Jannik Sinner vs Alex De Minaur Odds
The best place to bet under 20.5 games is over at DraftKings. They’re offering that line at -125 odds, while some other books like Bet365 have lowered their total games line to 19.5 in anticipation of another Sinner blowout win.
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As for the moneyline, Sinner is priced as a -1120 favorite at DK. As high as that number seems, some books have Sinner as short as a -1600 favorite. The Italian is also laying 5.5 games on the spread at +110 odds. That bet is much less likely to cash, but it’s not unheard of in this one-sided rivalry.
Sinner has six career wins over De Minaur in which he covered a 5.5 game spread, with half of those matches being best-of-three’s like this one.
Chris Amberley
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
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