Sinner vs Alcaraz Picks, Predictions, Best Bets, Betting Lines & How to Watch
By Sascha Paruk in Tennis
Published:
- World #1 Jannik Sinner meets #2 Carlos Alcaraz in the final of the 2025 Cincinnati Open on Monday evening
- Sinner ended a five-match ATP losing streak to Alcaraz in the 2025 Wimbledon final
- See the Sinner vs Alcaraz picks, predictions, and latest betting lines
The top two players in the world are set to square off in their fourth final this season as #1 Jannik Sinner meets #2 Carlos Alcaraz in the title match at the 2025 Cincinnati Open on Monday, August 18th. The championship match is slated to start at 3:00 pm ET on P&G Center Court.
Alcaraz has gotten the better of the head-to-head history between the two (9-5 on tour, 9-6 overall) but Sinner won the most-recent meeting, taking a four-setter in the final at Wimbledon, which stemmed a string of five straight losses to the Spaniard on the ATP Tour.
With that monkey off his back, Sinner enters the Cincinnati Open finale as a sizable betting favorite.
Sinner vs Alcaraz Betting Lines
The Sinner/Alcaraz moneyline shows a fairly broad range as of Monday morning; Sinner is as short as -200 at bet365 and as long as -175 at DraftKings. Similarly, Alcaraz is as short as +140 at DK but +162 at bet365. The game total is sitting at 23.5 at most books. Bettors can get the over at plus-money (+105) at Caesars, while the best price on the under is -122 at FanDuel.
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How to Watch Alcaraz vs Sinner
The Cincinnati final will air live on Tennis Channel in the USA, TSN in Canada, and Sky Sports in the UK. It will also stream live on the Tennis Channel app.
The match is scheduled to start at 3:00 pm ET, 12:00 pm PT, and 7:00 pm GMT.
Even after Sinner’s win at Wimbledon, Alcaraz still owns a significant 9-5 edge in the all-time head-to-head at the ATP level (10-5 including exhibition tournaments). That includes a 4-3 edge on hard courts.
Sinner vs Alcaraz Last 10 H2H Matches
*The Oct 2024 meeting took place in the final of the Six Kings Slam, a six-player exhibition tournament in Saudi Arabia.
Alcaraz vs Sinner Picks & Predictions
- Over 23.5 games (+105) at Caesars
- Sinner moneyline (-175) at DraftKings
Only one of the last seven matches between Sinner and Alcaraz has been decided in the minimum number of sets, which is a big part of why over 23.5 games (at plus-money) is my best bet for Monday’s match. Of course, it’s also possible to hit the over with a straight-sets victory that features two tiebreaks (or one tiebreak and a 7-5 set).
I’m also targeting the Sinner moneyline, which is a more-than-fair -175 at DraftKings, a full 25 cents better than his price elsewhere. At -175, Sinner has a 63.64% implied win probability. Sinner has yet to lose on hardcourts this season, going a perfect 12-0 dating back to the 2025 Aussie Open, where he crushed Alexander Zverev in the final.
Sinner dropped only two sets on his way to the Aussie Open title, and he has yet to drop a set in Cincinnati. The same can’t be said of the 22-year-old Alcaraz, who lost a 6-2 set to 60th-ranked Damir Dzumhur in the first round, and a 6-4 set to Andrey Rublev in the quarters (both were the second set of their respective matches).
Sinner has won half of his sets in Cincinnati (six of 12) by four games or more. Alcaraz has only done that three times in 14 sets. Alcaraz certainly had the tougher semifinal matchup, drawing Zverev (6-4, 6-3) while Sinner lucked into a match with upstart Terrence Atmane (7-64, 6-2).
Sinner’s serve has been impeccable. He’s only faced six break points in five matches. The only real criticism one could level at him is that he failed to save three of them.
Alcaraz has faced 14 break points during the tournament, saving just six. He was only 2-for-9 when facing breakpoints on his serve entering the semis, but he was a much-improved 4-for-5 against Zverev.
Still, Alcaraz’s serve has certainly been the more vulnerable of the two. Alcaraz has already lost four hard-court matches this year (20-4) and I fully expect that number to increase to five on Monday.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
