Sinner vs Zverev Odds, Predictions & Best Bets

• Jannik Sinner is a -830 favorite over Alexander Zverev on Day 4 of the ATP Finals
• Sinner has won four straight matches over Zverev
• See the latest Sinner vs Zverev odds below, plus my predictions and best bets

Jannik Sinner’s 2025 resume is jaw dropping. 53 wins, 5 titles and 2 Grand Slams. Yet, he likely he needs to sweep the ATP Finals in order to end the year with the number 1 ranking.

Sinner got off to a good start by downing Felix Auger-Aliassime in straight sets, and online sportsbooks expect him to make quick work of Alexander Zverev on Day 4.

The action is set to get underway at 2:30 pm ET, with live coverage available on the Tennis Channel.

Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev Odds

Sinner is currently a -830 moneyline favorite versus Zverev, and is laying 4.5 games on the spread at -165 odds. Zverev comes back as a +610 underdog, while the total games is set at a low 20.5.

Odds as of November 11. Get in on the action betting the ATP Finals with the Bet365 promo code.

Sinner vs Zverev Predictions and Best Bets

• Sinner to Win + Over 19.5 Games (-105 at Bet365)

The odds are telling us that Sinner is going to win convincingly and it’s hard to argue against that. Since losing in the US Open Final, Sinner is 17-1. His lone loss was the result of him retiring due to injury, and in the those 18 matches he’s dropped a grand total of three sets.

If we shorten the sample size to his last two tournaments, the Italian is 11-0, with 10 straight sets victories. Two of those wins came against Zverev, but the German is the only man to take a set off Sinner during that stretch. That was in the final of Vienna, when Sinner had to rally from a set down to claim the title. The two would meet the next week in Paris, and the result couldn’t have been more different.

Sinner dismantled Zverev 6-0, 6-1 in the semifinals but there is an asterisk. The German was just coming off a gruelling quarterfinal duel with Daniil Medvedev the previous day, and you could tell from the start he wasn’t 100%. He’ll be well rested for this showdown, and we should expect an aggressive approach similar to what he deployed in Vienna.

Zverev is no stranger to success at the ATP Finals, having previously captured the crown twice. He was excellent in his first round robin match against Ben Shelton, taking down the American in straight sets. Zverev lost only 10 points on his serve and didn’t face a break point. He’ll need another exceptional service day to stay close to Sinner, and the numbers suggest he’s capable of doing so.

Zverev owns the seventh highest service rating on Tour. No one wins a higher percentage of points on their first serve than Zverev, while only a few players are broken less often.

Sinner vs Zverev Last 5 H2H Results

Zverev’s serve should help keep this match competitive, pushing it over 19.5 games. He’s played Sinner incredibly tough throughout his career, and actually owns a 5-4 advantage head-to-head. Their last match notwithstanding, the German has either beaten Sinner, taken a set off him or pushed the Italian to at least one tiebreak in every meeting.

I fully expect Sinner to win, but Zverev is too talented for this match to be a cakewalk. One tiebreaker or one set for the German is all we need to almost surely win this bet, and it’s one of the few markets where we can actually back Sinner at a reasonable price.