- Tallon Griekspoor is a -125 moneyline favorite over Daniel Evans in the Citi Open Final on Sunday
- Griekspoor is seeking his third title of the season and his first at the ATP 500 level
- See the Griekspoor vs Evans odds, predictions, and best bets below
Prior to the week, neither Tallon Griekspoor or Daniel Evans were on many people’s radars to reach the Citi Open final. Neither had made much noise at 500 series events this season, and Evans entered the tournament in terrible form. Read on for an analysis of Griekspoor vs Evans.
Nevertheless, both men have pulled off multiple upsets this week and find themselves battling for the title in Washington on Sunday.
Griekspoor vs Evans Odds
|Over 23.5 (-105)
|Under 23.5 (-130)
Online sportsbooks are giving Griekspoor preferential treatment, making him a -125 moneyline favorite. Griekspoor is also laying 1.5 games to this opponent, in a match with a projected total of 23.5 games. The action is set to get underway at 5 pm ET, with Tennis TV providing the broadcast coverage.
Odds as of August 6 at DraftKings. Claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on the Citi Open final before making your Griekspoor vs Evans picks.
Tallon Griekspoor Betting Analysis
Of the two, Griekspoor’s spot in Sunday’s final is the least surprising. The Dutchman has captured a pair of 250 series titles already this season, the latest coming seven weeks ago in his home country. He followed up that result with a quarterfinal showing on grass in Germany at a 500 series event, before bowing out in the opening round at Wimbledon.
Griekspoor hadn’t played at the ATP level since his loss at the All England Club but didn’t show any rust once arriving in Washington. He made quick work of Liam Brody in the Round of 32, before knocking off Gael Monfils in the Round of 16.
Griekspoor posted a straight sets win over 16th seed J.J. Wolf in the quarters and then took down top seed Taylor Fritz 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 in Saturday’s semis. The 27-year-old leaned heavily on his big serve and heavy groundstrokes to get past the American, smashing 13 aces and 40 winners.
✅ First-ever Top 10 win
✅ First-ever ATP 500 final
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) August 6, 2023
He controlled the baseline winning 47 of the 81 points, and also managed to earn three breaks. Fritz entered play having won 80 of his past 82 service games, but had no answers for Griekspoor in the final set, dropping the last five games.
The victory was Griekspoor’s first ever over a top-10 opponent and puts him in an excellent spot to win the biggest title of his career on Sunday.
Daniel Evans Betting Analysis
Evans meanwhile, began the week having lost seven of his past eight ATP matches. He’d made it past the opening round of a tournament only once since an April showing in Barcelona, but over the last few days, he’s been a giant slayer.
The Brit survived a three-setter in the Round of 32 and hasn’t dropped a set since. He’s taken down back-to-back top-20 opponents, including a win versus world number 10 Frances Tiafoe in the quarters.
— ATP Tour (@atptour) August 6, 2023
Evans actually had to play twice on Friday, finishing his Round of 16 match before upsetting Tiafoe. Fatigue was a factor in Saturday’s semifinal match versus fifth seed Grigor Dimitrov, as the Brit had little juice. However, Evans was able to lay back and play mistake-free tennis, while Dimitrov couldn’t stop making errors.
Dimitrov made 30 unforced errors compared to only 10 for Evans. The Brit only hit one ace and nine winners but stayed patient to earn the fourth finals appearance of his career.
Griekspoor vs Evans Predictions
Evans owns a 2-0 lifetime record versus Griekspoor, taking him down twice on indoor hard courts last year. It might be tempting to bet on his Cinderella run continuing, but how he’s playing is not sustainable. Evans is relying far too much on his opponent making mistakes, rather than pushing the action himself.
Griekspoor vs Evans Stats
He won’t be able to just sit back and wait for Griekspoor errors, because the Dutchman is going to bring the heat both on his serve and from the baseline. Griekspoor is playing some of the best tennis of his career at the moment, and with a victory will move to number 21 in the world. He’s already won 27 matches in 2023, 10 more than a season ago.
Evans on the other hand, has just one career title on his resume, and at 33 likely won’t have many opportunities to play for a trophy in the future. With just 12 wins compared to 18 losses this season, he’s clearly playing over his head at the moment, and we should expect him to come crashing back down to earth on Sunday.
Pick: Tallon Griekspoor Moneyline (-125)