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Thiem vs Rublev & Nadal vs Tsitsipas Odds & Previews: Nitto ATP Finals Group Stage November 19

Hayley Graham

by Hayley Graham in Tennis

Nov 18, 2020 · 10:29 AM PST

Dominic Thiem
Dominic Thiem looks to stay undefeated as he takes on Andrey Rublev on Thursday at the ATP Finals. Photo by Jason Heidrich/Icon Sportswire.
  • The final round robin matches of the Nitto ATP Finals begin on November 19th with two  matches
  • Dominic Thiem was crowned the winner of Group London 2020
  • See below for current odds, previews and best bets of each match

Two more matches of the Nitto ATP Finals will be played on Thursday with some players’ futures in the tournament already made up. Dominic Thiem, who entered the tournament with his odds in the middle of the pack, has been dominating his group this year, having not lost a match yet, after upsetting Nadal yesterday.

He’ll be one to watch for the rest of the tournament.

Thiem vs Rublev Nitto ATP Finals Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[3] Dominic Thiem -3.5 (+150) -159 O 22.5 (-120)
[6] Andrey Rublev +3.5 (-186) +132 U 22.5 (-104)

Odds taken Nov. 18 from DraftKings

Unstoppable Thiem

2019 runner-up Thiem became the winner of Group London 2020 after defeating Rafael Nadal in his second match of the tournament, winning 7-6(7), 7-6(4), in what could be considered the match of the year. He now boasts an impressive seven wins in nine matches against Top 10 players this year.

Thiem’s strength was on display as he overcame being down 5-2 in the tiebreaker, and defended off two set points in that first set.

ATP Finals Newbie

Andrey Rublev’s been interesting this tournament. He lost his opening match to Nadal in what became a headline for Nadal’s tournament. And despite taking a set from Tsitsipas yesterday, it wasn’t enough as he eventually lost to last year’s champion.

Unfortunately with the two losses in the tournament, his chances of moving on have been taken away, making his Thursday match against Thiem, a match for pride. His inexperience at the top was put on display this tournament

Head-to-Head & Best Bet

These two have split their head-to-head matchups, both winning two. They recently saw each other in Vienna where Rublev won in straight sets, but Thiem is coming off a huge win against Nadal.

Thiem vs Rublev Stats


3 ATP Standing 8
2 Head-to-Head Wins 2
22-7 2020 W/L 40-8
1 2020 Titles 5

He’s playing some of the best tennis he’s played, and if he can continue what he had last match over to this one, Rublev doesn’t really stand a chance.

Best Bet: Thiem in straight sets (+160)

Nadal vs Tsitsipas Nitto ATP Finals Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[2] Rafael Nadal -3.5 (+118) -240 O 23.5 (+105)
[5] Stefanos Tsitsipas +3.5 (-143) +195 U 23.5 (-129)

Nadal Still Looking

Nadal put up a fight last match against Thiem, he just couldn’t get it done. Rafa will look to continue his aggressive playing, and continue to adapt to the court’s surface in his match against Tsitsipas. It should be a bit of an easier match for the Spaniard, as Tsitsipas has been off his game as of late.

Look for Nadal to continue his variation of shots from start to finish, and his dominant serve to carry his game.

Defending Champion

While trying to defend his title, Tsitsipas lost to the dominant Dominic Thiem in a rematch of last year’s finals in the first round but managed to find the win column against Andrey Rublev yesterday in three sets.

And now he doesn’t have an easy opponent in the final match of the group stage in Nadal. Tsitsipas hasn’t been able to deal with his opponents’ power off of serves and rallies, something that Nadal has proven to do this tournament. And on top of that, he’s found himself making more than his usual unforced errors and a lack of consistency, which is not ideal for this upcoming match.

Head-to-Head & Best Bet

These two have faced each other quite a few times, with the last time coming being at this event last year. Nadal took the match in three sets. And the only win Tsitsipas has on Nadal happened in the semifinals of the Madrid Masters last year, on a clay surface.

Nadal vs Tsitsipas Stats


2 ATP Standing 6
5 Head-to-Head Wins 1
25-5 2020 W/L 28-12
2 2020 Titles 1

Despite having lost in straight sets last match, it was a battle between Nadal and Thiem. Nadal has really stepped up his game on the indoor hard court surface, something that has never been extremely favorable to him. It’s safe to say that if Nadal plays the way he played against Thiem, keeps his strong serve, and variation to his game, he’ll be able to take the match against Tsitsipas.

Tsitsipas just hasn’t had the best go on indoor hard courts this year, he hasn’t really been able to find a rhythm. I think if Nadal comes out aggressive, Tsitsipas won’t have the opportunity to get his momentum going. It’s essentially a must-win for both players to keep their semifinal dreams alive, and Nadal looks to have the slight edge in this one.

Best Bet: Nadal in straight sets (+120)

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