US Open Men’s Singles Day 5 Odds & Picks – Third Round September 3

• The third round of the US Open men’s singles draw begins Friday, September 3 as the bottom half is in action
• Four qualifiers made it this far in the bottom half, and one is guaranteed to reach the second week

• We break down the odds, and look for upset potential

To have made it through three rounds of qualifying last week in incredibly challenging heat and humidity last week was a victory in itself.

But four qualifiers have won two rounds, and find themselves in the third round of the US Open.

Only one of the eight matches on tap September 3 went according to form: No. 12 seed Félix Auger-Aliassime vs No. 18 Roberto Bautista Agut.

US Open Men’s Singles Day 5 Odds – September 3

Odds as of Sept 2 at DraftKings

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Félix Auger-Aliassime Prediction

The only third-round match between seeded players in the bottom half of the draw is between these two.

And it could be a long one.

But despite the fairly favorable recent history for Félix Auger-Aliassime, who defeated Roberto Bautista Agut in three sets the last time they met, it’s not a great matchup on paper for him.

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Félix Auger-Aliassime Match History

On the plus side, the Cologne surface was a fast indoor one. And the US Open courts are fairly quick this year as well.

The Spaniard will try to make it a backhand vs backhand clash, which will be in his favor. He has an impressive ability to be able to find his forehand with the second shot after the return, and he’ll be hitting it inside out to the Canadian’s backhand every chance he gets.

On the forehand side, Auger-Aliassime can be both brilliant and erratic – often some of both in the same match.

The difference will come if the Canadian can serve as well as he did against Bautista Agut’s countryman, Bernabe Zapata Miralles, in the second round.

It’s no surprise the odds are so close. And it wouldn’t be surprising if it went the distance.

Over 3.5 sets at -205 odds is a fairly safe bet.

Best Bet: Bautista Agut in five sets (+425)

Andrey Rublev vs Frances Tiafoe Prediction

Andrey Rublev and Frances Tiafoe have never faced each other.

But the American might be ready for showtime, at his “home” Slam.

He will have the crowd massively on his side. And that’s a dynamic that has always spurred him on. Meanwhile, Rublev is the kind of player who might actually let that get to him.

It will be a Friday night, late match on Arthur Ashe Stadium. There will be legal beverages consumed by the crowd.

And that’s a lot for a fairly introverted Russian to take in.

Each has dropped one total set in their first two matches, with Rublev losing it to Spain’s Pedro Martinez more of a surprise than Tiafoe losing one to his friend Christopher Eubanks, a huge server.

For this one to go more than the minimum three sets (-155) also is a pretty good call.

Best Bet:  Tiafoe with the upset (+270)

Alexei Popyrin vs Daniel Evans Prediction

The 30-year-old Brit is a slight favorite in this one.  And he has good priors; Daniel Evans beat Alexei Popyrin 6-4, 6-4 on grass at Queen’s Club.

That’s technically home-court advantage for Evans, although his rather humble upbringing doesn’t lead to a posh place like the Queen’s Club being all that homey.

POP ON TOP! 🔥🔥🔥@AlexeiPopyrin99 is through to the third round of the #USOpen, where he will take on 24th seed Dan Evans! 🍿#GoAussies 🎾🇦🇺 pic.twitter.com/eHM1a7e151

— Aussie Tennis Talks (@AusTennisTalks) September 2, 2021

The Aussie’s big power groundstrokes and serve will come up against Evans’s all-court game and craft.

Popyrin may have the edge; Evans retired in his first-round doubles match Thursday because of a groin niggle. Whether it’s precautionary or not, it won’t help him if he’s at less than 100 percent.

Best Bet: Popyrin in four sets (+400)