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US Open Women’s Singles Odds & Picks – Day 6 Third Round (Sept 3)

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Sep 2, 2022 · 11:20 PM PDT

Iga Swiatek
Sept 1, 2022; Flushing, NY, USA; Iga Swiatek of Poland hits to Sloane Stephens of the USA on day four of the 2022 U.S. Open tennis tournament at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
  • The third round wraps up Sunday, with the top half of the women’s draw looking for the round of 16
  • More seeds (nine) have survived than in the bottom half (seven).
  • Read on as we break down the matchups and look for upset potential

The third round of a Grand Slam is when the seeded players are finally supposed to meet.

But with seven of the 16 in the top half already gone, only two of the eight matches scheduled for Sept. 4 will feature two seeded players.

US Open Women’s Third-Round Odds

Matchups Odds
[9] Garbiñe Muguruza (ESP) vs [21] Petra Kvitova (CZE) +150 / -190
  [Q] Yuan Yue (CHN) vs [8] Jessica Pegula (USA) +500 / -800
Petra Martic (CRO) vs [26] Victoria Azarenka (BLR) +160 / -200
[22] Karolina Pliskova (CZE) vs [13] Belinda Bencic (SUI) +100 / -130
[Q] Clara Burel (FRA) vs [6] Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) +450 / -700
  Jule Niemeier (GER) vs  Qinwen Zheng (CHN) +160 / -200
[1] Iga Swiatek (POL) vs  Lauren Davis (USA) -1600 / +800
Alizé Cornet (FRA) vs [19] Danielle Collins (USA) +130 / -170

Odds as of Sept 3 at Caesars Sportsbook. Use this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on the US Open.


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Three of the four players involved in the all-seeded matchups are either former No. 1s or Grand Slam champions (Garbiñe Muguruza is both).

In both cases, we’re calling for the lower seed of the two to pull off the upset.

And Iga Swiatek, the world No. 1, remains the favorite to win the whole thing, despite having no bona fides in Flushing Meadows.

Serena Williams, the sentimental pick and the one taking up all the oxygen the first week, bowed out Friday night.

US Open Day 6 Matches to Watch

Cornet vs Collins Pick

The odds on this one are fairly close in large part because Cornet, who upset defending champion Emma Raducanu in the first round, is becoming infamous for taking out higher-ranked players on big occasions.

Collins, whose ranking is down to No. 19 and had played just two matches (one on grass at Wimbledon and the other right afterwards on clay in Lausanne) since the French Open, has arrived in New York looking like her vintage self.

Surprisingly so. And hard courts are her thing even if the conditions at the Australian Open seem to have suited her better than those at the US Open in the past.

The 28-year-old American announced herself in the first round when she took out two-time champion Naomi Osaka in straight sets.

Collins took out Cornet in the quarters on her way to the Australian Open final in January.

And it feels as though Cornet, physically, might not be quite up to par; she has withdrawn from the mixed doubles, for one thing.

She will battle. But Collins seems to be feeling it. Loudly, Proudly, Noisily. And powerfully.

Prediction: Collins in Two Sets (+145)

Swiatek vs Davis Pick

The world No. 1 is a huge favorite in this match. And rightly so.

Davis, a 28-year-old just outside the top 100 who reached a career-high of No. 26 five years ago, probably shouldn’t even be there.

She was neck-and-neck with the Italian Lucia Bronzetti – who up and retired when she was two points away from defeat.

Then Davis dropped the first set to Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-0 (in 20 minutes), and was on her way out – and somehow clawed her way to victory. It’s only the sixth time in 36 majors that Davis has gotten to the third round, and the first time since Wimbledon in 2019 (and the first time at the US Open).

It will end on Saturday.

And in rather expeditious fashion.

Prediction: Under 16.5 games (+155)

Pliskova vs Bencic Pick

Karolina Pliskova’s best major has been the US Open, where she was a quarterfinalist a year ago (as well as in 2017 and 2018), and a finalist in 2016.

But she’s not what she was then. And could easily have gone out in the first round to Poland’s Magda Linette.

She escaped, 10-8,  in the third-set match tiebreak.

Surprisingly, she and Belinda Bencic have only met once – at Indian Wells in the 2019 quarterfinals.

Bencic prevailed in three sets.

For the Swiss, the US Open has been by far the best major – it’s the only one where she has reached the quarterfinals. And she has done that twice (including last year), as well as making the semis in 2019.

It has all the makings of an upset, and indeed Bencic is slightly favored.

But it sets up as a marathon.

Prediction: Each Player to win a Set (+140)


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