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Tour de France Odds, Picks, and Best Bets for Stage 16 – Sep. 15th

Tadej Pogacar racing to the finish line
Tadej Pogacar appears to be the only alternative to Primoz Roglic in this year's Tour de France. Will he go for it on Tuesday? Photo by @cyclist (Twitter)
  • Stage 16 of the TDF (Tuesday, September 15) is a mountainous stage in the Alps that begins the final week of the race
  • The race winner appears to be down to two candidates, Primoz Roglic and Tadej Pogacar
  • A breakaway is viable on Tuesday, which puts several longshots in the running

And then there were two.

Entering Saturday’s first stage in the Alps it seemed as though defending champion Egan Bernal was in trouble. It’s true, he’s finished. Race favorite Primoz Roglic, and his ultra strong Team Jumbo–Visma, looks like the Tour de France winner, but Tadej Pogacar is not giving way easily.

A reasonable outcome took place in Stage 15, Pogacar holding off Roglic. That said, Jumbo–Visma flexed their muscles dictating the tempo, dropping Bernal, and supporting Roglic to the finish.

Tuesday, the GC contenders may be in the mix at the end, but a breakaway could take it too. Let’s look at the odds and consider the top contenders.

2020 Tour de France Stage 16 Odds

Rider Odds at DraftKings
Marc Hirschi +1000
Julian Alaphilippe +1100
Daniel Felipe Martinez +1200
Tadej Pogacar +1200
Michal Kwiatkowski +1600
Primoz Roglic +1600
Lennard Kamna +1600
Richard Carapaz +1800
Maximilian Schachmann +1800
Pello Bilbao +2000
Esteban Chaves +2000

Odds as of Sep. 14th.

Roglic leads Pogacar by 40 seconds, with Rigoberto Uran another 56 seconds behind. While six riders are within 3.5 minutes of the lead, it is virtually impossible to imagine anyone other than Roglic or Pogacar putting on the Yellow Jersey in Paris.

Stage 16 is 164 kilometres through the Alps from La Tour-du-Pin to a punchy finish in Villard-de-Lans. The race has been to these parts many times, and surely a breakaway will try its hand right out of the gate with a Category 4 climb at the Côte de Revel. During the middle of the day, the riders will deal with two Category 2 climbs, but the bulk of the action should be expected near the end.

The Category 1 Montée de Saint-Nizier-du-Moucherotte is 11 km long with an average gradient of 6.5%. Once to the top there are 20 kilometres left to the finish line, mostly downhill, except for a Category 3 challenge at the very end.

The Favorites

There is no single favorite in this stage because guessing who will attempt a breakaway is difficult, and being able to win among the break is even harder.

Twenty-two-year-old Marc Hirschi is a logical contender because he has looked really strong on several occasions this year. While not in the race to be on the podium, he won Stage 12 and seems to have a lot left in the tank.

While Julian Alaphilippe did win a stage, it has been a bit disappointing  tour for the home-grown talent. He has five career individual stage wins and was the King of the Mountains in 2018 . Yet, after Stage 2 this year, he has rarely been in it when the money is on the line.

Dani Martinez earned his first Tour de France stage victory on Friday, and this is another stage that could set up nicely for him.

The 24-year-old Columbian is certainly seeking a breakaway opportunity, and he has the tools to best other rivals if they are head-to-head after a difficult day up front.

Top Contenders

The number of stages where Pogacar can make up ground on Roglic is limited, and winning a stage comes with a time bonus. In two mountain stages, Pogacar has been a touch better than Roglic, but he has the vastly inferior team, and if there is an opportunity, he must take full advantage.

Roglic won Stage 4 and does not need to carry any individual day in order to eventually be the champ, but it would solidify the lead and send a message if he outraced Pogacar one of these days. Having the best team provides him the chance, routinely.

While there ihttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4Hqd7blg_Qs no real reason that Roglic has to win a stage, he can put the race away with a decisive victory. If he does not, he’ll be vulnerable to the very end.

Longshots

In Stage 14, Søren Kragh Andersen came out of nowhere to earn his first stage victory. He was tactical, joining the breakaway late and then pouncing. Who can do that on Tuesday?

The time could be now for veteran Esteban Chaves. He has experienced success in the other two grand tours, winning stages and placing on the podium.

He has shown an ability to function in a breakaway and is a strong climber. The +2000 price is certainly tempting.

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