Atlanta Dream vs Phoenix Mercury Picks, Predictions, Props & Betting Lines (July 23)

• The Atlanta Dream play the second of back-to-back games when they visit the Phoenix Mercury on Wednesday night
• Phoenix is a dominant 9-3 at home, while Atlanta is just 5-7 on the road
• See the Dream vs Mercury picks, player props, and betting odds for Wednesday’s game in Phoenix

The two most-improved teams in the WNBA meet on Wednesday night as the Atlanta Dream (13-10, 5-7 away, 12-10-1 O/U) visit the Phoenix Mercury (15-7, 9-3 home, 11-10-1 O/U) at PHX Arena at 8:00 pm MT/10:00 pm ET. Atlanta will be playing its fourth straight game without 2022 first-overall pick Rhyne Howard (16.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 4.5 APG).

With shorthanded Atlanta on the road and playing on zero days’ rest, the Dream are heavy underdogs on Wednesday night. The first table, below, sets out the Dream/Mercury odds. Under the odds, find the player props, followed by my best Dream vs Mercury picks for tonight’s game in Phoenix.

Go to: ATL vs PHX ODDS | ATL vs PHX PROPS | ATL vs PHX PICKS

ATL Dream vs PHX Mercury Betting Lines

The Mercury are currently laying 7.5 points at all sportsbooks, with only minor variations in price. The best odds on the Mercury to cover can be found at DraftKings (-108), while the best odds on the Dream to cover can be found at BetMGM (-105). On the moneyline, FanDuel has the longest price on a Dream victory (+265), while DraftKings once again has the best odds for Phoenix bettors (-298). The total is 163.5 (-110 each way) at most books. Under bettors can a better price (-105) at Caesars. Odds as of July 23rd. Check out SBD’s rankings of online casino apps.

Both teams have improved their point differentials by over seven points compared to last year, more than a point better than any other teams in the league. But Atlanta has been much better at home (8-3) than on the road (5-7), which includes five losses in their last six road games (2-4 ATS). The only win in that span was a rout of the rebuilding Chicago Sky (86-49) just before the All-Star break.

Phoenix, meanwhile, has won four of its last five at home, covering the spread in all four. The only loss in that span was a narrow 84-81 setback to Las Vegas, when reigning MVP A’ja Wilson went off for 26 points, 18 rebounds, and seven assists.

While both rosters look significantly different this season, it’s worth noting that Phoenix went 3-1 SU against Atlanta last year, including 2-0 SU and ATS at home.

Wednesday will mark the return of Phoenix leading scorer Satou Sabally (19.1 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 2.6 APG), who has been out since July 3rd due to an ankle injury.

The Mercury are currently the third-favorite in the WNBA championship odds at an average of +531. Atlanta sits sixth at +2125.

ATL vs PHX Player Props

Player props as of 2:43 pm ET at bet365. Claim SBD’s bet365 bonus code.

Sabally and Atlanta’s Allisha Gray (18.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 3.9 APG) lead the player props with point totals of 16.5 apiece. Three players have a game-high rebound total of 7.5 O/U: Sabally, teammate Alyssa Thomas (15.2 PPG, 7.3 PG, 9.5 APG), and Atlanta’s Brionna Jones (13.1 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 2.5 APG).

Thomas also has the highest assist total by a wide margin at 9.5 O/U. Thomas’ 9.5 assists per game lead the entire WNBA, well ahead of second-place Caitlin Clark (8.8 APG) and miles ahead of third-place Courtney Williams (6.0 APG).

Dream vs Mercury Picks & Prediction

• Dream +7.5 (-105) at BetMGM
• Allisha Gray over 16.5 points (-115) at bet365

The return of Sabally will undoubtedly give the Mercury a boost, but don’t expect her to log huge minutes in her first game in nearly three weeks. The 6’4 forward averages a pedestrian 28.2 MPG while healthy, which is the lowest of any team’s leading scorer. Only two other team scoring leaders are under 30 MPG: Chicago’s Ariel Atkins (29.7 MPG) and Connecticut’s Tina Charles (28.8 MPG), who’s now 36 years old.

Atlanta is just 1-2 since Howard went down, but the setbacks were in tough road games at New York (79-72) and Las Vegas (89-72) last night, when A’ja Wilson was her usual dominant self (24 points, 12 rebounds, five assists). Phoenix doesn’t have one single player who can take over a game the same was as the reigning MVP and, even without Howard, the Dream have the depth to keep this one close.

In addition to betting the Dream to cover the spread, I’m going to target the over on Allisha Gray’s point total of 16.5. Phoenix’s defense is good, but not elite (79.3 PPG), and Gray is coming off a big 24-point performance last night. This is more than two points below her season average and and her usage should remain slightly higher than usual with fellow guard Howard still out of the lineup.